As every tourist who has strayed into a bazaar or souk knows, Middle Easterners drive a hard bargain. And the Iranians, with their long history of strategy and commerce, are among the region’s most savvy negotiators. President Trump’s pointman for the region, Steve Witkoff, is finding this out the hard way.
The President touched off fevered international speculation when, during his April 7th Oval Office meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he unexpectedly announced that the U.S. would be holding direct talks over Iran’s nuclear program. The process has unfolded quickly since then, with Witkoff traveling to Oman (and most recently to Rome) to hold consultations with Iranian officials over the future of their regime’s nuclear effort.
The initial results left a great deal to be desired. Fresh off his preliminary talks in Muscat, Witkoff publicly raised the possibility of establishing a cap on Iranian uranium enrichment at 3.67 percent – precisely the level set by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.
Predictably, this raised worries among national security experts about the regime’s ability to preserve a latent nuclear capability, and prompted charges that Trump’s Iran deal was shaping up to be nothing more than “Obama 2.0.”
Since then, undoubtedly due to internal pressure from the White House, Witkoff has walked back his initial formulation. “A deal with Iran will only be completed if it is a Trump deal,” he subsequently wrote on X. “Any final arrangement must set a framework for peace, stability, and prosperity in the Middle East — meaning that Iran must stop and eliminate its nuclear enrichment and weaponization program.”
That objective still holds – for now. But there’s a clear danger that it will soften over time, perhaps significantly so.
In his conversation with regional leaders, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has made clear that his government’s right to enrich uranium is “non-negotiable,” and decidedly not on the diplomatic table.
To that end, Iranian officials have floated the idea of a protracted three-stage plan that would see the Islamic Republic cap its uranium enrichment in exchange for a rollback of U.S. sanctions. All of which reflects Iran’s long-standing strategy of drawing out diplomacy with the West for as long as possible in order to add permanence to its nuclear effort.
That’s a real danger, since Iran is perilously close to nuclear status, and steadily drawing closer. The Islamic Republic is already enriching uranium to 60% purity, and is now just a short technical step away (and mere weeks) from the 90% enrichment needed for a nuclear device.
Moreover, Iran’s work on weaponization – that is, turning highly-enriched uranium into a usable nuclear device – is likewise proceeding apace, and according to some estimates the process could be perfected within as little as six months.
The ball, then, is squarely in Washington’s court. In coming days, the White House will need to decide on the parameters of its dialogue with Iran, and precisely how long it is prepared to talk with the Iranian before contemplating other, more direct options of preventing it from going nuclear.
President Trump has made clear he hopes the issue can be resolved peacefully. In order for that to have a chance of happening, though, America’s approach will need to stick to a clear bottom line. The Iranian regime needs to understand in unequivocal terms that if it wants to stay in business, it needs to get out of the nuclear business altogether.
Any deal that falls short of that formulation will be a political victory for the ayatollahs—and a strategic risk for everyone else.
About the Author:
Ilan Berman is Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC.
Horsemen-of-the-Apocalypse
April 20, 2025 at 8:46 pm
In the long term, Iran must cooperate with north Korea.
There should be no stopping Iran because of the very double-faced nature of western society.
Day and night and night and day, western countries lecture the rest of the world about human rights and human freedoms and other lofty ideals and many numerous other amazing wonderful pies in the skies, but take a look at Gaza today.
Gaza today, is seeing all those ideals and sweet pies disappear like dew in the morning sun.
As netanyahu bombs and shoots the Gaza inhabitants to oblivion, America and European nations today, right now, facilitate numerous flights to Israel bringing in tons and tons of ammo and other military supplies.
That’s exactly like many missionaries from western nations of yesteryears thumping bibles and preaching fire and sulphur to heathens while raping their womenfolk.
Iran needs to take a good hard look into the soul of the west which is like Iran looking into the soul of a person controlled by Asmodeus. No less.
Jim
April 20, 2025 at 11:24 pm
“… [Iran] needs to get out of the nuclear business altogether.”
This sounds like the Libya model of total dismantlement which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu quickly stated upon news Trump would conduct negotiations with Iran.
Iran won’t accept total dismantlement.
You might as well prepare for a Middle East war of great destructive dimensions that will threaten not only the Middle East, but the World economy as 20% of the World’s oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz which Iran has the ability to close upon war.
Now, you don’t announce your bottom line before the negotiations begin.
Iran will not give up its sovereignty and Uranium enrichment as it is entitled to engage in civilian nuclear scientific research under International Law and the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, itself.
This article gives the impression Iran is working on building a bomb. The recent 2025 Annual Threat Assessment stated with High Confidence Iran is not building a bomb or working towards being able to build a bomb.
We can’t have misstatements of fact from an author and then give him the benefit of the doubt when it seems by implication he wants to urge on a disastrous war on behalf of a foreign country.
We have to have American foreign policy put the United States first, not foreign countries.
It’s not in the United States Vital National Security Interest to bring on a war in the Middle East by engaging in unrealistic demands.
We know from The New York Times Netanyahu wanted to attack Iran with no negotiations at all.
Other Israeli political leaders are calling to attack Iran.
Israeli political leaders don’t make U. S. foreign policy. Half of Americans don’t have favorable views of Israel at this point because they don’t agree with Israeli policy.
A negotiated settlement is the best policy outcome for the United States.
Mahmoud Naghikhani
April 25, 2025 at 1:06 am
Trump doesn’t care peace. He is business man and trying to overcome Europ and chine and want his share of economy. Also he want to say I am better than Obama.
We Iranian are clever and know both of above.
Please be informed in our long history we had such complicated situations such as attacking Mongolia to shiraz. By wisdomment and negotiating our assessors had overcame them and we will overcome you Americans. I promise.