U.S. forces in Syria continue to support their partners in the war against ISIS. This is part of a mission that dates back to 2015, when the U.S. first became involved in Syria. However, recent reports point to an increasing likelihood that the U.S. role in Syria may end within months. US forces appear to be withdrawing from several posts near the Euphrates river, according to local reports. ISIS was largely defeated in Syria and Iraq in 2019, and what remains is mostly small cells in the desert
. As a new transitional Syrian government takes shape and the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) agree to integrate within the new security forces of Damascus, U.S. support may be less necessary.
The U.S.-backed SDF controls around a third of Syria—primarily the part of the country east of the Euphrates. U.S. forces support the SDF as part of the U.S.-led Coalition against ISIS and Combined Joint Task Force Inherent Resolve. U.S. forces are also located in Tanf Garrison, a small post in Syria near the Iraqi and Jordanian border.
This isolated post is used to back the Syrian Free Army, a small group of former Syrian rebels who are now helping support Damascus in securing areas of the desert between Tanf and Palmyra. This is a strategic area. Even though it is located in the desert, it sits near key roads that link Iraq with Syria. These roads were previously used by Iranian-backed militias to smuggle weapons to Hezbollah.
Creating Stability in Syria
Operation Inherent Resolve has been highlighting work at Tanf these days, including mine clearance operations and training. Elements of the 10th Mountain Division are at Tanf. On April 11 the Americans trained with their Syrian partners to practice firing mortars. Meanwhile, in eastern Syria, the Combined Special Ops Joint Task Force-Levant continues to back the SDF in countering ISIS. Across the border in Iraq, the same American unit is backing Iraqi forces who perform similar missions.
The broader work of the Coalition in Syria has been to help create stability as the new government in Damascus seeks an agreement with the SDF. U.S. forces – there have been up to 2,000 troops in eastern Syria – helped train the SDF into a powerful fighting force. With tens of thousands of men and women under arms, the SDF has made eastern Syria safer and more secure. However, it has always suffered from a lack of resources, as eastern Syria is not only poor, but also cut off from most of the world. This is one of the contradictions of American policy in Syria: The anti-ISIS campaign was primarily a military-first policy. This meant it included no component of what might once have been called “nation-building.” The operation was about purely working “by, with and through” the SDF, and U.S. involvement was characterized as temporary, transactional, and tactical. Now, it is also likely to be transitional.
Allaying Concerns
The SDF always knew the day would come when the U.S. would leave. The first Trump administration sought to leave Syria, but U.S. forces remained, despite some changes on the ground due to a Turkish invasion in 2019. The SDF clashed with the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army, a group of Syrian rebels that Ankara turned to as a proxy. When the Assad regime fell on Dec. 8, 2024, the SDF and SNA used the opportunity to expand their areas of influence in Syria, increasing the clashes that occurred between the two groups. Now the U.S. appears to have offered a way to reduce these tensions. On March 10, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi flew to Damascus and signed an agreement with the new transitional president in Damascus, Ahmed al-Shara’a.
On April 12, that agreement appeared to bear its first fruits. With U.S. support, the SDF and Damascus appear to have agreed to a handover of the strategic Tishreen Dam on the Euphrates. The SDF had controlled the dam, but now the new Syrian government will take over.
If the handover goes well, it will help build confidence about integrating more SDF-held areas to Damascus’ control. In addition, SDF-aligned units in Aleppo handed over a Kurdish neighborhood to government control. This matters because the SDF is based largely around Kurdish fighters from eastern Syria. If Kurds feel secure in Aleppo, then the sense of concern in eastern Syria may shift.
The concerns are legitimate. The government in Damascus is dominated by former members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the group Shara’a ran for many years during the Syrian civil war. Shara’a was viewed as a terrorist by the U.S. during the war, and views in Washington have only shifted now that he is in power. Not everyone agrees with the change in perception. Some Israeli officials continue to characterize Shara’a as a potential threat. However, the rest of the region is embracing Damascus. Shara’a recently travelled to Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar.
A Successful American Mission
The Syrian president’s travels illustrate how he is making inroads in countries with very different Syria policies. For instance, Turkey and Qatar were more cold toward the Assad regime than the UAE, Saudi Arabia, or Egypt were over the last several years. Turkey often criticized the U.S. role in eastern Syria. Even though Turkey is a member of NATO, and thus a U.S. ally, it was displeased by the U.S. backing of the SDF, believing that group was linked to the Kurdistan Workers Party.
Ankara wanted the SDF swept aside, rather than cemented in power. The outlook may be changing from Ankara, and this could enable the U.S. to leave eastern Syria, confident that Turkey will not invade anew. If the SDF integrates into the new Syrian Ministry of Defense forces, then Ankara may feel less threatened. In addition, Turkey could finally wrap up its own role in northern Syria, where it backs the SNA.
Rumors have swirled about a U.S. withdrawal from Syria for years. Reports from NBC in February said the U.S. was drafting plans to leave, and a report on Israel’s Ynet on April 15 said the withdrawal would be a phased drawdown. This redeployment of US forces now appears to be in its first stage. That would make sense, because a phased withdrawal could be reversed if Damascus does not adhere to agreements with the SDF.
It would also prevent ISIS or other groups from attempting to fill any vacuum left by U.S. forces. This is important in Tanf, and also the desert areas along the Euphrates. ISIS thrived in the Middle Euphrates River Valley, recruiting from tribes in this area. Later, Iranian-backed militias entered the same area on the western bank of the Euphrates. Now the Syrian government controls the area the militias withdrew from. However, the Iranian-backed militias continue to be active across the border in Iraq, and they view the new government in Damascus with suspicion.
U.S. forces in eastern Syria, under U.S. Central Command, have played a key role in the area for a decade. This was a successful mission that America can be proud of. Paving the way for a transition to stability will be an important symbol of success. Winning the peace is as important as winning the war. This will mean making sure that ISIS remains defeated, and also dealing with the ISIS detainees still held in eastern Syria. It also means standing by the SDF and Syrian Free Army partners. An orderly drawdown of U.S. forces, one that allows U.S. partners to feel secure, will strengthen American influence in the region.
About the Author: Seth Frantzman
Seth Frantzman is the author of The October 7 War: Israel’s Battle for Security in Gaza (2024) and an adjunct fellow at The Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He is a Senior Middle East Analyst for The Jerusalem Post. Seth is now a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor.
