In February of this year, the Canadian Armed Forces compiled an assessment of their readiness numbers across all three services.
Part of the objective of the exercise was to determine where aging hardware was currently in need of replacement but still in inventory, which was contributing to a lack of service-wide availability.
Two U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning IIs, assigned to the 4th Fighter Squadron from Hill Air Force Base, Utah, conduct flight training operations over the Utah Test and Training Range on Feb 14, 2018. The F-35 is designed to provide the pilot with unsurpassed situational awareness, positive target identification and precision strike in all weather conditions. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Andrew Lee)
Capt. Andrew “Dojo” Olson, F-35 Demonstration Team commander and pilot performs a dedication pass in an F-35A Lightning II during the 2019 Wings Over Wayne Airshow April 27, 2019, at Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, North Carolina. The WOW Airshow marks the third public performance of the F-35 Demo Team’s new aerial demonstration during 2019 airshow season.
Capt. Andrew “Dojo” Olson, F-35 Demonstration Team pilot and commander performs aerial maneuvers during the Wings Over Houston Airshow Oct. 18, 2019, in Houston, Texas. The show featured performances from the U.S. Air Force Thunderbirds, Tora, Tora, Tora, and Oracle. (U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Airman Alexander Cook)
F-35s from the 62nd Fighter Squadron visit Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland, October 21, 2021. F-35 Lightning II aircraft traveled to JBSA-Lackland for a two week stay to train and fly with multiple different aircraft from the surrounding area to include the 149th Fighter Wing’s F-16 Vipers. (Air National Guard Photo by Staff Sgt. Ryan Mancuso)
The Canadian Broadcasting Company (CBC) obtained a copy of the final document that tracks availability numbers for both equipment and personnel. The findings for the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) were not encouraging.
According to the 18 February 2025 report, it is projected that 60 per cent of RCAF inventory is “unserviceable” and would be unable to deploy if there were a major NATO operation requiring the Canadian service to be part of a multinational expeditionary force.
In the case of the service’s main front-line fighter, the old McDonnell-Douglas CF-18 Hornet, the chief culprit is the age of the airframes, some of which are pushing 45 years in operation.
Many of the aircraft are soon reaching the end of their structural service life.
End of the Upgrade Road for CF-18
One frequently asked question is why Ottawa cannot just put these older Hornets through a refurbishment program.
This sounds like an easy and cost-effective solution, but an upgrade can only be performed so many times, and the Canadian aircraft have already passed that point.
One of the major efforts to keep these Hornets flying began in the late 1990s and involved both the RCAF and the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF).
Each air force put one of their aircraft through a different series of dynamic loads testing and other techniques to extend the structural service life of their F/A-18s.
Once these load tests were complete, the two nations shared their structural data results – Canada having performed testing on the front half of the aircraft and the Australians on the mid- to rear-sections. This gave both services a comprehensive checklist of fixes and repairs that would permit both services to keep flying these aircraft.
However, there was a finite date by which this approach could no longer compensate for the increasing age of these fighters. Even where the structural integrity was an issue that could be even temporarily addressed “Band-Aid” style, there was the additional complication of the electronics of the aircraft also being outmoded.
In some cases, the on-board electronic systems of these aircraft were now unable to cope with modern-day threats from adversary air defense and air-to-air missiles. Some of their avionics and other electronics were also so old that it was becoming impossible to acquire spares for them.
Ready For The Nail Factory
Speaking recently with a Finnish defense official he relayed similar problems about his country’s F/A-18 aircraft. Like the RCAF, Finland is planning to acquire the F-35 as the replacement for the Hornet.
I asked him if once Finland receive their F-35s could their Hornets be sent to Canada as a stop-gap measure while they sort out their own F-35 procurement decision. However, his answer was those aircraft would be of no help to the RCAF as the Finnish jets themselves will need to be retired by 2030.
F-18D Hornet in service with the Finnish Air Force.
“By the time we have all of our F-35s these Hornets here will be ready for the nail factory,” he told me.
The combination of these factors collectively puts the Canadian F/A-18s on the glide path to retirement, and there is no turning back. Even in a best-case scenario, the RCAF Hornets will be unusable by the year 2032.
F-35 for Canada?
This puts Canada in the position where the delays in making a decision on the F-35 mean they will soon reach the point where they will have to retire aircraft, but without anything to replace them.
“I understand why this discussion regarding the F-35 is underway and what I would say is this is the wrong weapon system to reconsider,” retired general Tom Lawson told CBC. Lawson was the country’s former top military commander, and also a former consultant for Lockheed Martin – the F-35’s manufacturer.
“There’s a very real scenario where everything gets delayed to the point where there are no fighters flying in Canada for a period of time.”
Whatever decision Ottawa is going to make, it is a decision that needs to be made before it is too late. They otherwise risk the RCAF’s readiness falling to numbers that are even more dismal than this report has already projected.
About the Author:
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
