Canada Has a Message for the F-35 That Solves the Fighter Problem

How To Solve the F-35 Canada Problem: Amid political friction with the US, Canada’s Prime Minister Carney is reviewing the nation’s F-35 fighter deal. One potential outcome explored is a mixed fleet: accepting the initial 16 F-35s already funded while acquiring Sweden’s Saab JAS 39 Gripen for the remaining requirement.

-The Gripen offers affordability (~$40M unit cost cited), proven multi-role capabilities suitable for Canadian needs (like air policing), and potential job creation through promised Canadian production.

-While operating both types presents significant logistical complexities (training, parts), this approach could provide Canada leverage in negotiations and balance capability needs with strategic diversification goals.

Canada F-35 Problem Solved: A Mixed Fighter Fleet? 

Canada faces a difficult decision or an easy one, depending on one’s point of view.

The Canadians have a significant deal with the Americans on the chopping block, and the suspense is building. Lockheed Martin has plans to produce 88 F-35 stealth fighters for the Great White North. 

However, Canada could completely kill the accord or amend it soon. 

The Canadians Could Be Tired of American Assistance

Recently elected Prime Minister Mark Carney, who is skeptical of the U.S.-Canadian military relationship, stated during the campaign that he wanted to “review” the F-35 agreement. 

He now says it could be “adjusted,” signaling that he is open to persuasion. Carney has stated that he believes the prior national security relationship with the United States may be over due to President Trump’s trade war and belligerent rhetoric, which included calling Canada the “51st state.”

Sweden Steps Into the Breach

Canada has already earmarked funds for 16 of the F-35s. These have likely been produced by Lockheed Martin in Texas. That means the Canadian air force could take that batch and end further purchases of the American jet. 

This would force the Canadians to pick an alternative fighter. 

Sweden’s Saab would love for Carney and his defense leaders to choose the JAS 39 Gripen as the airplane of choice.

It Might Be Difficult to Operate Both Airplanes

This would mean that Canada’s air force would have a combination of Gripens and F-35s. This might hurt interoperability for Canada’s armed forces. With both fighters, Canada would have to train pilots in North America and Sweden. 

Spare parts, maintenance support, and munitions would come from two countries. Canada would need to build additional hangars, and the technicians involved in servicing the airplanes would also require separate training.

The JAS 39 Gripen Is a Worthwhile Investment

However, the JAS 39 Gripen is an interesting aircraft that warrants a serious look. It is a 4.5-generation multi-role fighter, and it can conduct air policing duties to protect homeland security. 

This is perfect for Canada. It can engage in dogfighting and ground strike missions, too. The Gripen costs around $40 million a unit, not counting support expenses, so it is affordable. JAS 39s are excellent overall airplanes that have become the go-to choice for foreign air forces seeking a versatile warbird for various fighter plane missions.

It is not as stealthy as the F-35, but it does possess some radar-evading capabilities. The Gripen is fast and maneuverable. The airplane has acted like a real “hot rod” in military exercises. Thai pilots used the Gripen to dominate Chinese Su-27s in drills over Thailand’s airspace. 

Brazilian aviators loved flying the airplane in last year’s multinational war games in Latin America. And the Gripen was instrumental in “shooting down” American F-15s in battle simulations at Red Flag-Alaska drills in 2006.

Canadian Jobs Are on the Line

Sweden would love to supply Gripens to Canada, and they have sweetened the deal. They have offered to allow some of the JAS 39’s components to be built indigenously, giving a boost to Canada’s homegrown defense industry.

The Swedish-American competition will come down to what I deem “fighter plane diplomacy.” The United States, with the F-35, has an advantage here. Nineteen countries fly the Lightning II, although the list of JAS 39 partners is impressive as well, but the Americans sell the advantages of stealthiness and NATO interoperability to the Europeans. Additionally, the F-35 can conduct air policing and ground strikes, and do so in a manner that can evade enemy air defenses.

If Trump has not called Carney to congratulate him for a hard-fought election win, he should. Trump may need to bring up the F-35 deal in his remarks to his Canadian counterpart. Trump must also downplay the discussion of annexing Canadian territory and reduce the intensity of other rhetoric. Relief from tariffs in exchange for the F-35 export could also be a gambit that Trump could try.

Carney can play hard to get and work some magic with the Swedes, too. He will likely pound the table to get concessions from Saab to build some components of the JAS 39 in Canada. What better way to create advanced manufacturing jobs that pay well for his countrymen?

Interoperability will be a problem that can be mitigated. The pilots and maintenance providers for the Canadian Air Force are competent. They can fly both the F-35 and JAS 39 Gripen. They will just have to train hard and be open to instruction.

Sweden and the United States are going to pull out all the stops. That means a big competition between Saab and Lockheed Martin. Don’t forget Congress and the Canadian parliament. Lawmakers love getting involved in fighter plane diplomacy. It is a patriotic way to boost not only national security but also economic development. 

So, this decision for Carney and his national security team could be easy – choose both the F-35 and JAS 39 Gripen. 

Alternatively, it could be difficult for Carney to completely sever the umbilical cord of U.S. defense assistance and terminate the F-35 deal. Trump and congressional lawmakers do not want that F-35 agreement to be scrapped. That means Carney and the Canadians may have the Americans over a barrel.

About the Author: Dr. Brent M. Eastwood

Brent M. Eastwood, PhD is the author of Don’t Turn Your Back On the World: a Conservative Foreign Policy and Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare plus two other books. Brent was the founder and CEO of a tech firm that predicted world events using artificial intelligence. He served as a legislative fellow for U.S. Senator Tim Scott and advised the senator on defense and foreign policy issues. He has taught at American University, George Washington University, and George Mason University. Brent is a former U.S. Army Infantry officer. He can be followed on X @BMEastwood.