Forget Going to Canada: The F-35 Could Be Replaced by the JAS 39 Gripen

Key Points: Canada’s planned purchase of 88 F-35 stealth fighters is under review by Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government, largely due to deteriorating US-Canada relations under President Trump and concerns about American control over the aircraft.

-While the F-35 won Canada’s fighter competition, offering advanced capabilities and NATO interoperability, alternatives like Sweden’s Saab Gripen E are being re-examined.

-The Gripen E is touted as a capable, more affordable 4.5-generation option, with Saab potentially offering Canadian assembly.

-Canada, already committed to an initial 16 F-35s, faces a complex decision balancing military requirements, industrial benefits, and strategic autonomy from the US.  

Canada Might Not Go Big on the F-35 Fighter 

Canadian aviation has long marched in step with the United States, and Canada’s current fleet of CF-18 Hornets, the Canadian variant of the older American F/A-18 Hornets, is no exception.

Acquired back in 1980, the Royal Canadian Air Force fleet has since grown long in the tooth and is in need of replacement.

However, given the damage sustained by the Canadian economy due to American President Donald Trump’s tariff bluster, could Ottawa opt for a different jet — a non-American, European alternative to the F-35?

What Will Canada Do? 

Will Canada dump the F-35 and opt for a different platform? It would be difficult — Canada’s F-35 procurement is already well underway.

As part of the Future Fighter Capability Project, which specified Ottawa would need 88 new fighters, Canada held a tender for replacing their CF-18 Hornet fleet. Lockheed Martin’s F-35 emerged from the open competition as the winner.

But the award includes more than just the F-35 stealth jets themselves — it also includes training and training software, sustainment, F-35 support infrastructure, as well as weapons and associated equipment.

And as part of the Future Fighter Capability Project, Royal Canadian Air Force pilots will train on the F-35 at the F-35A Pilot Training Center in Luke Air Force Base in Arizona. The first of the Canadian F-35s are anticipated for delivery to Arizona next year, and the first of those jets to Canada in 2028.

According to the Canadian government, the latest Future Fighter Capability Project update, from late January of this year, covers a $15.8 million contract “for the design, manufacturing, and installation of individual secure enclosures making up the Tactical – Special Access Program Facility (TAC-SAPF).” Importantly, Canada has already plunked down the cash for the first 16 F-35s.

But given the extremely vehement and damaging trade war to Canada — one of the United States closest allies — public opinion on American products writ large, as well as a strong buy Canadian campaign, has cast doubt on the future of the Canadian F-35 fleet.

“Foreign military sales are government-to-government transactions, so anything further will be best addressed by the U.S. or respective customer governments,” Rebecca Miller, director of global media relations for Lockheed Martin, said in a statement.

Miller also pushed back against the idea that Lockheed Martin retains a kind of kill switch that could disable the F-35 should the United States government tell Lockheed to do so.

“As part of our government contracts, we deliver all system infrastructure and data required for all F-35 customers to sustain the aircraft,” Miller explained. “We remain committed to providing affordable and reliable sustainment services to our customers that enable them to complete their missions and come home safely.”

The Latest Scoop

According to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, Canada is in active discussions with other countries to determine if there is a realistic alternative to the American F-35, potentially a significant blow to the $19 billion agreement between the two countries.

Saab, the Swedish aerospace firm, and their Gripen E placed second in the Future Fighter Capability Project, and Bill Blair, the Canadian Defence Minister, hinted that Ottawa could give that platform a second look.

“It was the fighter jet identified by our air force as the platform that they required, but we are also examining other alternatives — whether we need all of those fighter jets to be F-35,” Blair said, opening the door to Canada operating a mixed F-35, Gripen E fleet.

“The prime minister has asked me to go and examine those things and have discussions with other sources, particularly where there may be opportunities to assemble those fighter jets in Canada,” Blair explained.

But Canada has long eschewed operating a mixed fleet of fighters, given the inherent complications of doing so. Not only would a two-jet fleet require two different training pipelines, but it would also necessitate different supply chains and support infrastructure, a complication seen in defense circles as unnecessary and cost-ineffective.

Though the runner-up in Canada’s Future Fighter Capability Project, and in its own right a capable aircraft, the Gripen E’s capabilities pale in comparison to that of the F-35, casting a shadow on its viability as a realistic alternative to the American stealth fighter.

Not only does the Gripen E lack the stealth capabilities of the F-35, but its smaller size and, therefore, more limited fuel capacity means that its range is also less than its fifth-generation counterpart.

What Happens Now on the F-35 and Canada? 

The confidence in the U.S.-Canada relationship has been rocked to the core — in a way perhaps never seen in the two countries’ long and unusually close relationship.

If the Canadian F-35 project can survive, the Trump era remains to be seen. However, given the amount of time and money Ottawa has already put into the F-35 project, it seems unlikely that Canada would cancel the project outright. But if Trump’s tariffs bite hard enough, anything could be possible.

JAS 39 Gripen. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

JAS 39 Gripen Fighter from Sweden.

JAS 39. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

JAS 39. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

About the Author: Caleb Larson 

Caleb Larson is an American multiformat journalist based in Berlin, Germany. His work covers the intersection of conflict and society, focusing on American foreign policy and European security. He has reported from Germany, Russia, and the United States. Most recently, he covered the war in Ukraine, reporting extensively on the war’s shifting battle lines from Donbas and writing on the war’s civilian and humanitarian toll. Previously, he worked as a Defense Reporter for POLITICO Europe. You can follow his latest work on X.