If there was ever a time when US defense spending was at such a high level that almost any idea could find funding, it was the 1980s.
During these halcyon days under Ronald Reagan, there were no shortages of proposals for improving an existing combat aircraft program that still had plenty of service life left in it—dramatically increasing its performance at a minimal cost.
One of the few that succeeded in that regard was the US Navy’s F-14D program. The original Pratt & Whitney TF30 engine that had powered the Tomcat from the beginning was replaced by a General Electric (GE) F110-400 power plant in new-build F-14s, the last aircraft ever manufactured. The performance with the new engine was like night and day.
But most others never got off the ground. Re-engine proposals for both the A-10 Thunderbolt and the F-111 to be fitted with the same GE F110 went nowhere. A total re-vamp of the A-7, originally called the A-7E+ and later the A-7F, was produced as two prototypes, but no orders were forthcoming.
I asked a colleague from one of the major US defense companies why he thought so many of these very logical and extremely cost-effective upgrades rarely succeeded.
“Air forces around the world are all full of colonels. And those colonels only have one dream—and that dream is to become a general. The biggest disadvantage that any proposed upgrade of an existing aircraft design will face is the reality that colonels do not become generals by being involved in a modernization of some older model aircraft. They become generals by being involved with the acquisition of some brand-new aircraft.”
The F-35 Ferrari’s Coming Uphill Battle
In the wake of losing to Boeing in the competition for the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter project—what is now called F-47—Lockheed Martin (LM) has proposed the ultimate modernization proposal—what the company’s CEO called a “Ferrari version” of its single-engine F-35 that could be a lower-cost competitor for the Boeing program.
Several points about this “souped-up” version of the F-35 make it difficult to see where it might be successful.
The first of these might be that the LM is employing a tactic so often used in defense marketing that it is beyond formulaic. Specifically, this is the declaration that this new and improved F-35 will offer “80 percent of the capability of what the F-47 is supposed to deliver but at half the cost.”
This sales pitch sounds clever and cost-effective, but it also highlights the reality of the weapons design process. The last 20 percent of performance usually represents what has always determined the high cost of sophisticated weapon systems. And this proposed option for a less-capable weapon often does not resonate with customers.
Offering a cheaper weapon system may not always be the best answer, either. US-made weapons have always been very expensive, but they have the advantage of being able to hold back an enemy of superior numbers by having the performance to engage that opposing force at longer ranges.
Programs of Record
However, perhaps the most significant hurdle an improved F-35 would face is whether the upgraded aircraft could be sold for export. The US Government would need to buy it off first, making it a “program of record.”
If the US military is not a user of the system, that usually means any effort to sell to export customers ends up as a failed effort—like the Northrop F-20 fighter or the three-nation Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS).
In that vein, there appears to be no coordination between LM and the US Air Force (USAF) on the improved F-35, which is not a positive sign.
F-35 fighter. Image Credit: BAE systems.
Israeli Air Force (IAF) F-35I Adir
F-35I Adir from Israel. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Two U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning IIs, assigned to the 4th Fighter Squadron from Hill Air Force Base, Utah, conduct flight training operations over the Utah Test and Training Range on Feb 14, 2018. The F-35 is designed to provide the pilot with unsurpassed situational awareness, positive target identification and precision strike in all weather conditions. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Andrew Lee)
Capt. Andrew “Dojo” Olson, F-35 Demonstration Team commander and pilot performs a dedication pass in an F-35A Lightning II during the 2019 Wings Over Wayne Airshow April 27, 2019, at Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, North Carolina. The WOW Airshow marks the third public performance of the F-35 Demo Team’s new aerial demonstration during 2019 airshow season.
According to reports from last month, LM did not even speak with the USAF before announcing the “Ferrari” concept. At an AFA Warfighters in Action event on 24 April, Maj. Gen. Joseph D. Kunkel, the Deputy Chief of Staff for Air Force Futures, said that he had not had any discussions with LM on the “fifth-gen-plus F-35” concept and declined to comment further.
Additionally, the F-35 Joint Program Office told Air & Space Forces Magazine that it also had no comment on the LM proposed revision of the F-35, “as the discussion remains entirely notional at this stage.”
Without USAF approval of, participation in, and demonstrated interest in procuring this advanced F-35, the program would seem to have few chances for success.
About the Author:
Reuben F. Johnson is a survivor of the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and is an Expert on Foreign Military Affairs with the Fundacja im. Kazimierza Pułaskiego in Warsaw. He has been a consultant to the Pentagon, several NATO governments and the Australian government in the fields of defense technology and weapon systems design. Over the past 30 years he has resided in and reported from Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Brazil, the People’s Republic of China and Australia.
