It’s year four of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s so-called special military operation in Ukraine, and Moscow has become a regular target of drone strikes.
Little is going according to plan for the Russians. Their soldiers are defending Russia’s own territory in Belgorod and Kursk, where Ukrainian fighters have brought the war across the border. Still, the Kremlin hopes to project strength by holding its annual Victory Day parade. But this year, the optics are crumbling. More than a third of Putin’s “friends” won’t be showing up to the May 9 parade, according to Russian media. Pakistan is skipping the ceremony entirely; India is sending only a Defense Ministry delegation; and half of the BRICS leaders have declined. South Africa is sending its defense minister, while Iran will be represented by its ambassador.
For those leaders who do plan to attend, real concerns remain that Ukraine could disrupt the parade itself. In response, Putin has pushed for a temporary three-day ceasefire—not to advance peace, but to protect his parade. The Institute for the Study of War noted that “Putin is using these one-sided ceasefires to improve his military position and appear open to peace talks, without actually committing to real peace.”
The Kremlin warned it would deliver what it calls an “adequate response” if Ukraine launches any strikes during Putin’s self-declared May 8–11 truce. Kyiv dismissed the proposed ceasefire as a publicity stunt aimed not only at protecting Putin’s parade, but also allowing Russia’s military to reposition.
Backlash followed from Putin’s cronies. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico condemned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for warning foreign delegations not to attend Russia’s Victory Day parade, calling Zelensky’s comments disrespectful.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused Zelensky of holding “nothing sacred” after he rejected Putin’s proposal, claiming Zelensky had “hit rock bottom” by warning of possible threats to veterans attending the May 9 events.
“They are responsible for your safety. We will not provide any guarantees, because we do not know what Russia might do on those dates,” Zelensky said.
Meanwhile, for the third year in a row, occupied Sevastopol was forced to cancel its Victory Day military parade, citing safety concerns amid ongoing Ukrainian strikes on Russian military targets across Russia.
In the days leading up to the parade, Ukrainian drones have continued to pound Moscow. Their strikes have thrown Russian civil aviation into chaos. Fifty-two percent of flights at Vnukovo international airport were disrupted, with an average delay of 69 minutes. Moscow Domodedovo airport saw 43 percent of flights delayed longer than five hours, and at Sheremetyevo, 51 percent were disrupted, with average delays of 115 minutes.
Putin remains defiant. In a recent interview, he said, “We have enough strength to bring what was started in 2022 to a logical conclusion.” Meanwhile, Zelensky was recently spotted strolling through Kyiv’s city center, taking photos with civilians.
The Russians seem not to have enough air defenses to protect their own territories from Ukrainian bombardment. In fact, the intensity of the Ukrainian attacks will only grow with time—endless amounts of Ukrainian drones roam the Russian skies.
Ukraine has come a long way. In February 2022, many Western governments expected it to collapse within days. Now, Ukraine has developed a domestic arsenal of long-range drones and missiles and is striking targets deep inside Russia. “Ukraine’s domestic long-range drone and missile program is being developed really fast, under the difficult circumstances of the ongoing full-scale invasion,” said Volodymyr Dubovyk, Director of the Center for International Studies at Odesa Mechnykov National University,
As Ukraine’s technological strength grows, Putin’s Russia faces mounting consequences. At one point, Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil refineries knocked out 10 percent of the country’s refining capacity, according to Reuters.
Even prominent Russian war correspondents are beginning to admit the obvious. “I feel sorry for us. We’re being beaten,” wrote Alexander Sladkov. “There was a phase of denial, anger… Now I’ve accepted the situation for what it is.”
Trump may tell Zelensky that he doesn’t hold any cards, but time continues to prove otherwise.
Putin may hope that parading alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping will project strength, but in reality he already faces a symbolic defeat. Ukraine is opening up a new chapter in Putin’s special military operation, which is now spreading across Russia itself. The Victory Day parade could be the scene of a fireworks show—just not the type of fireworks Putin would hope to see in Moscow.
About the Author
David Kirichenko is an Associate Research Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society. His work on warfare has been featured in the Atlantic Council, Center for European Policy Analysis, and the Modern Warfare Institute, among many others. He can be found on X/Twitter @DVKirichenko.
