Summary and Key Points: National security analyst Stephen Silver evaluates the civilian impact of the U.S.-Israeli air campaign against Iran. As of March 2026, over 1 million passengers have been stranded due to airspace closures in Qatar and the UAE.
-This report analyzes the damage to Dubai Airport from drone debris and the Trump administration’s initial refusal to provide non-commercial evacuations for U.S. citizens.
Shahed-136 Drone. Image Credit: YouTube Screenshot.
-Silver explores the potential for a massive refugee exodus from Iran and the high-profile asylum case of the Iranian Women’s National Soccer Team in Australia, concluding that the war’s logistical footprint is rapidly outgrowing the initial military scope.
The Iran War Means Travel Chaos In Some Parts of the World
The war in the Middle East, which began a little over a week ago with the joint U.S./Israel attack on Iran, has already led to high loss of life, while also threatening to upend the balance of power in the region and seriously disrupting the world’s oil markets.
But it’s also left many travelers stranded, with damage also done to some airports.
Trouble at the Airport
Business Insider wrote on March 4 about the many people left stranded as a result of the start of the military operation.
Citing the aviation analytics firm Cirium, more than 12,000 flights were canceled in the first three days of the conflict, affecting over 1 million travelers, a figure that has likely increased significantly since.
“Many of those passengers would have been transiting through huge hub airports in Qatar and the UAE, or stopping over briefly, when the attacks shut down much of the region’s airspace,” BI said. The US State Department has told Americans stuck in the Middle East to evacuate “by commercial means,” although later in the week the government began evacuating Americans by charter flight.
Per the New York Times, this has led to some criticism of the State Department.
“The State Department is battling accusations from diplomats and travelers who say the Trump administration endangered U.S. citizens in the Middle East by beginning a war against Iran without adequate plans for helping Americans leave the region,” the Times said.
NEWPORT NEWS, Va. (Oct. 25, 2019) USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) gets underway for the first time since beginning its post-shakedown availability July 2018. Ford is currently conducting sea trials, a comprehensive test of the ship’s systems and technologies. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Connor Loessin)
“Veteran diplomats and exasperated travelers said it had done too little, too slowly to help people stranded by flight cancellations and airspace closures in the region,” the Times wrote.
“This war started at a time of our choosing,” Yael Lempert, a career diplomat and former ambassador to Jordan, told the Times. “It should have come as no surprise that airspace would close, and commercial flight options would be curtailed.”
The state had changed course in the middle of last week, the Times reported, ultimately making the charter flights available. In other places, the State Department chartered buses to take people to places where they could catch flights.
“Until midweek, the State Department had mainly provided stranded travelers with basic information about security conditions and commercial travel options via a telephone hotline and text messages,” the Times said. “Before Wednesday, desperate people calling the hotline got an automated message that said the U.S. government could not help get them out of the region.”
“Charter flight and ground transportation operations are underway and will continue to ramp up with additional flights, and ground transports taking place today,” Dylan Johnson, a State Department spokesman, told the Times.
Actual Damage to Airports
Meanwhile, the BBC reported that some actual airports have suffered damage in the current conflict, especially in Iran’s launches at other countries in the Middle East.
“There have also been attacks on airports and civilian areas, especially in the economic and tourist hubs of Dubai and Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Doha in Qatar,” the BBC said.
PACIFIC OCEAN (Nov. 28, 2023) Line handling crew assigned to the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS John S. McCain (DDG 56) prepares to come alongside USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71) for a replenishment at sea. John S. McCain is currently conducting routine training and certifications in the U.S. 3rd Fleet area of operations. (U.S. Navy photo by Ensign Garrett Fox).
An F/A-18E Super Hornet aircraft approaches the flight deck of the world’s largest aircraft carrier, Ford-class aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), Nov. 17, 2025. U.S. military forces are deployed to the Caribbean in support of the U.S. Southern Command mission, Department of War-directed operations, and the president’s priorities to disrupt illicit drug trafficking and protect the homeland. (U.S. Navy photo)
“The Dubai Airport, the busiest in the world for international travel, was damaged by drone debris in the counter-strikes, leading it to be closed for three days in a row, stranding hundreds of thousands of passengers. A projectile also hit the luxury Fairmont The Palm hotel in Dubai, causing a fire that was filmed and widely shared across social media.”
“The retaliation, especially against areas like the UAE, surprised me and a lot of others,” Dr. John Rose, Chief Risk Advisor at corporate travel management firm ALTOUR, told BBC.
Refugees From Iran?
There’s also the question, as is often the case in wars, of whether it could trigger a refugee crisis in Iran.
Forbes wrote last week about that possibility.
“The recent escalation of bombings and military strikes inside Iran may be fueling a new international refugee crisis that could ripple across the Middle East and into Europe: mass displacement,” Andy J. Semotiuk wrote about the situation.
“As power grids fail, cities experience evacuations, and security deteriorates, millions of people living in Iran—including refugees already displaced by earlier conflicts—are facing a stark question: stay or flee.”
Iran, per one report, is already a major host of refugees.
The Battle Ensign is flown aboard the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson during an exercise with the Peru navy. Carl Vinson is supporting Southern Seas 2010, a U.S. Southern Command-directed operation that provides U.S. and international forces the opportunity to operate in a multi-national environment.
Capt. Tim Waits, commanding officer of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN 73), climbs into an F/A-18F Super Hornet, attached to Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 102, while underway in the South China Sea, Nov. 24, 2025. George Washington is the U.S. Navy’s premier forward-deployed aircraft carrier, a long-standing symbol of the United States’ commitment to maintaining a free and open Indo-Pacific region, while operating alongside allies and partners across the U.S. Navy’s largest numbered fleet. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Geoffrey L. Ottinger)
Nimitz-Class Aircraft Carrier at Sea. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
“If instability spreads and people begin leaving Iran in large numbers, neighboring states—already carrying significant refugee burdens—would likely be the first destinations,” the Forbes piece says. “For Afghan refugees living in Iran, the current crisis compounds an already precarious existence. Many Afghans have lived in the country for decades but remain without permanent legal status. In recent years, economic pressures and political tensions have led to stricter migration policies and increased deportations.”
Not in the US- Unless They’re Soccer Players
Iran has been on the White House’s travel ban list since last year, making it unlikely that the U.S. will be taking in many Iranian refugees.
However, per The Hill, Trump said Monday that the U.S. will grant asylum to members of Iran’s women’s national soccer team, which is currently in Australia, if Australia declines.
“Australia is making a terrible humanitarian mistake by allowing the Iranian National Women’s Soccer team to be forced back to Iran, where they will most likely be killed,” Trump wrote on Truth Social Monday. “Don’t do it, Mr. Prime Minister, give ASYLUM. The U.S. will take them if you won’t. Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP.”
Per CNN, five members of the team have sought asylum in Australia and are “safe with police.” The team is in Australia for the Women’s Asian Cup, and before a match last week, they remained silent during Iran’s national anthem.
Iran’s men’s national team is scheduled to compete in the World Cup this summer in the U.S, although their participation has been thrown into doubt by the war.
When asked last week if Iran would still play in the tournament, Trump answered: “I really don’t care.”
About the Author: Stephen Silver
Stephen Silver is an award-winning journalist, essayist, and film critic, and contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review, and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. For over a decade, Stephen has authored thousands of articles that focus on politics, national security, technology, and the economy. Follow him on X (formerly Twitter) at @StephenSilver, and subscribe to his Substack newsletter.
