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Putin’s Failure: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Has Nearly Stalled Out

Ukraine T-90
Russian T-90 Tank Firing. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

On day 25 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the advance of the Russian forces has almost stalled on all fronts. The exceptionally fierce Ukrainian resistance coupled with the incredible failure of the Russian supply lines has created a stalemate. In an attempt to break through this deadlock, the Russian forces are shelling Ukrainian cities indiscriminately in an attempt to break the will of the defenders and capture them.

Stalemate and Shelling 

In its latest estimate of the war, the British Ministry of Defense assessed that the Russian military is still trying to encircle key Ukrainian cities but that it is also failing to do so and thus resulting in indiscriminate shelling.

Russian forces are continuing to encircle a number of cities across eastern Ukraine. Over the past week Russian forces have made limited progress in capturing these cities; instead, Russia has increased its indiscriminate shelling of urban areas resulting in widespread destruction and large numbers of civilian casualties. It is likely Russia will continue to use its heavy firepower to support assaults on urban areas as it looks to limit its own already considerable losses, at the cost of further civilian casualties,” the British Military Intelligence assessed.

In a first, Russian forces used a hypersonic missile to strike an underground Ukrainian arms depot. On Saturday, Russia launched a Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missile in western Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the U.S. remains committed to the integrity of the NATO alliance.

“Our commitment to Article V is iron clad. And now Putin’s war of choice against Ukraine has been tragic. Russia’s invasion has taken a terrible toll on Ukrainian lives including brave soldiers and far too many innocent civilians. Yet Russia’s aggression has galvanized the Ukrainian people, NATO and the free world. . . They [Ukrainian people] are fighting are against huge odds to defend their country,” U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said in a joint press statement with the Bulgarian Prime Minister.

The Low and Highs of Russia’s Casualties 

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Sunday, Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 14,700 Russian troops (and wounded approximately thrice that number), destroyed 96 fighter, attack, and transport jets, 118 helicopters, 476 tanks, 230 artillery pieces, 1,487 armored personnel carriers, 74 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), three boats, 947 vehicles, 60 fuel tanks, 44 anti-aircraft batteries, 21 unmanned aerial systems, and 12 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles.

So heavy casualties are unsustainable and they raise serious questions about the ability of the Russian military to achieve any of its initial objectives.

Ukrainian officials are also claiming that their forces killed a fifth Russian flag officer. Thus far, four Russian generals have been confirmed killed in action on the ground in Ukraine. The deaths of so many high level officers could have occurred because they had to go to the frontlines in order to inspire or organize their troops or because the Ukrainians were able to identify them via signals or electronic intelligence. Reports indicate a major breakdown in the secure communications of Russian troops, which in instances are resulting in using unsecure local phone lines or mobiles.

1945’s New Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business InsiderSandboxx, and SOFREP.

1945’s Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist with specialized expertise in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

9 Comments

9 Comments

  1. yellowstoneuk

    March 20, 2022 at 7:07 pm

    The Pareto 20/80 rule has met its second instance since the russians invaded ukraine today Sunday so that the effectiveness of the Russian military has dropped to 4%. At the current rate of attrition of the Russian forces, the third pareto point will occur in 9 days, so that Russian military effectiveness will reduce to less than 1%.

  2. Alex

    March 20, 2022 at 8:06 pm

    And I heard about the destruction of 100,000 Russian soldiers and Ukrainian tanks near Moscow. Then I looked at the map of hostilities and the real losses of the parties. Although Goebbels was a liar and a propagandist, he was not a clown like the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and an idiot like those who believe in Ukrainian propaganda. You can poke your nose at maps and satellite images, official data, but their brain does not accept the truth, but believes in what it is capable of, due to its limited capabilities 🙂

  3. troll-feeder

    March 20, 2022 at 11:40 pm

    Mr. Alex

    Are you copying and pasting the same comment on these various articles because the rouble has lost so much value? I totally get it…less pay should mean less work.

  4. Bertram

    March 21, 2022 at 12:00 pm

    Unmitigated disaster for Putin and Russia.

    A result which would be the worst of all worlds is emerging as a distinct possibility.

    Russia destroys its relationships with most of the rest of the world and kneecaps its economy for at least the next decade unless Putin is overthrown earlier.

    AND

    A pyrrhic victory so costly to achieve that Russia can not even retain it, or outright defeat at the hands of the Ukranians who simply refuse to yield and continue to be supplied with weapons for a war of attrition against weakening Russian forces.

    All leading to a permanently hostile Ukraine on Russia’s border AND international isolation of a Russia, who’s military has been shown to be a paper tiger.

    Odds are increasing that Zelensky is more likely to survive as President of his country, than Putin is of his.

  5. Rock Doctor

    March 21, 2022 at 12:33 pm

    I recall that when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and it took the Russians seven days to achieve their objectives the question asked was how would they manage against a stronger opponent? The last three weeks have provided that answer.

  6. Warspite

    March 21, 2022 at 3:16 pm

    Why would anyone base conclusions on numbers from the Ukr defense agency any more than an analysis based upon the Russian MoD? This article smacks of propaganda. The author could at least use Russian numbers to criticize the Russian military. Plus where are the numbers on Ukrainian losses? And almost 100 planes lost? Come on.

  7. Jacksonian Libertarian

    March 21, 2022 at 6:35 pm

    Stalemate? No, what we’ve seen is a steadily increasing degradation of Russian forces which will continue to gather momentum. Keeping armored military forces in combat requires a very large and steady supply of men and material. This requirement doesn’t change much between between offense and defense operations. The supply lines are critical to keeping the army functional, and every truck, road, and bridge (soft targets) destroyed reduces the logistical support. When the tipping point is reached, the Russian army will be forced to retreat or surrender/destroyed.

  8. Alex

    March 21, 2022 at 8:17 pm

    So interesting to watch about the sobs of some trolls. After all, they so wanted Russia to make millions of victims in Ukraine, but hopes do not come true, do they? Yes, learn: to be strong, you need not just to wipe out cities, but to do it with the least number of casualties among the civilian population. But you don’t know that. Strength is not in the destruction of everyone and everything. Strength is a manifestation of mercy and cleansing from the Bandera Nazis with the least casualties among the civilian population. This is not surprising. History shows how the Western world has killed tens of thousands of civilians in wars. Even in science fiction films, the Western world wins when the hero destroys half the city or even half the world. That’s what it is, “democracy”. And Russia is different, not like your world. The balance is this: someone destroys, and someone creates. Different ideology of life and being.

  9. troll-feeder

    March 22, 2022 at 4:10 pm

    Mr. Alex

    “strength is not the destruction of everyone and everything”

    ironic statement considering your Führer is at this very moment literally leveling modern European cities and towns across Ukraine with indiscriminate shelling. This form of ‘creation’ is very interesting. I suppose we should just chaulk it up to a different ideology of life and being.

    you continue to insist your people are saving the Ukrainians from Nazis when your people are acting uncannily like…wait for it…Nazis! The justifications for violence, the symbols, the tactics, the talk of cleansing…it is all quite eerie.

    any-who, enough with the facts, onward with the propo comrade!

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