Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine–an unprovoked attack by Russia–the casualties on both sides have been very high. The Russians have suffered so many casualties, that their combat capability has now fallen below 90 percent, the metric used to gauge combat effectiveness.
A US Defense Department official who spoke to reporters on Tuesday offered an assessment of Russian troops that attacked Ukraine from Belarus and said that the Russian troop numbers have now fallen below the numbers needed to continue effective offensive operations.
“We assessed it for the first time they may be just a little bit below 90% on that. And no indications, no tangible indications of reinforcements being brought in from elsewhere in the country, no tangible indications of foreign fighters that have flown into the country … no indications that they’ve moved in foreign fighters from Syria or elsewhere.
“It’s our assessment that as they look at reinforcements, it’s probably the most likely scenario that they would want to pull in from places not inside Russia. I’d remind you that of the battalion tactical groups that Mr. Putin has available to him across Russia, he’s used about 75% in this particular operation. So, I think our assumption would be he’d pull from outside the country first, but that’s an assumption and I really don’t want to get any more detailed than that,” the official said.
Last week, the most conservative of casualty estimates by the US had Russian losses at 7,000 troops killed. The state-run Russian newspaper Pravda posted that 9,861 Russian soldiers had been killed and 16,153 injured in the war in Ukraine. This information was on the website for 24 hours but then was taken down.
Ukrainian Armed Forces Trying To Take Back Territory
With the Russian offensive aimed at Kyiv stalled for the past few weeks, the Ukrainian troops have retaken the important town of Makariv, a key crossroads on the western approaches to the capital. But the Ukrainians are attacking depleted Russian forces in several places.
Ukrainian forces are moving to retake Izyum, a city that had been taken by the Russians in eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian troops are also trying to take back Kherson and push Russian troops from areas north of Mykolaiv in the south.
“What we’re starting to see are indications that they (Ukrainian forces) are now able and willing to take back territory that the Russians have taken,” the official told media members at the Pentagon, adding that the Ukrainian troops continue to defend their cities “in a very nimble, agile way.”
“Because the Ukrainians are fighting so hard in Mykolaiv … they’re making the Russians sort of reposition around there,” the official added. The inability of the Russians to take Kyiv, which was expected to occur within 72 hours of the kickoff of the invasion, has been a major failure for Moscow. The attempted encirclement of Kyiv has also failed and that has allowed the Ukrainian government to shuttle in logistical support.
The Russians are still having a major issue with logistical support, with their troops lacking proper food, ammunition, and equipment, including cold-weather gear which has resulted in several cases of frostbite. Their ships in the Black Sea are also having issues keeping enough fuel.
A member of the UK security and defense think tank RUSI (Royal United Services Institute), Justin Bronk said that Ukrainian counterattacks are thwarting Russian plans to move any further against Kyiv.
“Essentially, what they are trying to do is cut off an entire side of the attempted encirclement of Kyiv, which would force the Russian forces to either try to break north and abandon those positions or for Russia to reroute significant combat power all the way around Ukraine and back in from the north-west, to try to break through and release their own forces there.”
Steve Balestrieri is a 1945 National Security Columnist. He has served as a US Army Special Forces NCO and Warrant Officer before injuries forced his early separation. In addition to writing for 19fortyfive.com, he has covered the NFL for PatsFans.com for more than 10 years and his work was regularly featured in the Millbury-Sutton Chronicle and Grafton News newspapers in Massachusetts.
