How Long Will the War in Ukraine Last? Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, and the invasion is now in its third week. The invasion began with military assaults and bombing campaigns on multiple Ukrainian cities, including the capital city of Kyiv. While things seem to be escalating fast, what are the potential off-ramps to see the carnage end?
Russia Laid Out Roadmap to Peace
This week, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Reuters that Russia would immediately stop its military campaign in Ukraine if the country complies with four conditions. These include officially recognizing Crimea as Russian territory, recognizing the independents of the Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, ending all military action, and amending the nation’s constitution to prevent it from joining NATO or any other political bloc.
Should Ukraine agree to those conditions, he said, the war will “stop in a moment.”
At this stage, it is unclear whether Ukraine will ever consider complying with the demands, having submitted a formal application to join the European Union only days after the invasion began. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy did say on Tuesday, however, that he had “cooled down” on his plans to join NATO after drafting a bill for Ukraine to become a member of the international bloc.
“Regarding NATO, I have cooled down regarding this question a long time ago, after we understood that NATO is not prepared to accept Ukraine,” he told ABC News.
Russia May Still Intensify Bombings
It is still entirely possible that Russia may intensify its attacks against Ukraine, including using biological and chemical weapons. In the last week, the White House and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson indicated that Russia may be resorting to the use of chemical weapons after making uncorroborated claims that the United States Department of Defense was preparing to use migrating birds to spread biological weapons in Russia.
On Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron has warned of “massive further sanctions” if Russia takes any such action or intensifies bombings.
“In that case, nothing is off the table. Nothing is taboo. We will do whatever we deem is effective and useful to halt Russia in its aggression,” he said during a summit of European Union leaders in Versailles.
How Long Can Ukraine Keep Fighting?
It remains entirely unclear just how long the conflict will last, but assuming that both sides remain resolute in their goals – Ukraine maintaining its sovereignty and Russia demilitarizing Ukraine and establishing the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk – the war may only end when there is a winner.
The question is not necessarily “how long can Ukraine keep fighting?” but “how long can Russia continue to fight?”
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and report on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.
