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We Think We Know Why Russia Had No Chance in Conquering Ukraine

Ukraine Russia
Russian T-90 Tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Update on the War in Ukraine – It wasn’t supposed to be this way. Russia’s high command had promised Vladimir Putin that the Russian military could deliver a decisive blow and take control of Kyiv within 72-hours. But after weeks of siege warfare and heavy losses, the Russians have withdrawn from the capital and left a shocking amount of carnal damage including murdered civilians that have many accusing the Russians of war crimes. Here is the state of play in the Russia – Ukraine War of 2022:

Tough-fought Ukrainian Victory in Kyiv

Ukraine can be considered the victors of the Battle of Kyiv. But it was a pyrrhic victory in this war of attrition.

Some Russian troops have been left behind amid the retreat or re-positioning of Russian forces from the Kyiv Oblast. These skeleton forces are creating a rear-guard action to cover Russian movement. The retreating Russian troops have left booby traps, mines, and improvised explosive devices that will not allow the Ukrainians to inhabit the recovered urban territory any time soon.

Russia Commits War Crimes in Ukraine

Shockingly, not only has Russia left Ukrainian soldiers and executed civilians (with their hands and feet bound) in mass graves or simply lying on the street, but they have also left bombs rigged to the corpses.

The Ukrainians claim the destruction around the area of Bucha with at least 400 civilian corpses strewn about constitutes war crimes. Even though the Russians left a myriad of destroyed tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and trucks behind, they still have withdrawn substantial forces from the west bank of the Dnipro River.

It’s Not Over Yet

Unfortunately, this war is far from over.

The Ukrainian win at Kyiv is a great development for Ukrainian forces, but it is not decisive as the Russians will take these retreating forces and send them east to reestablish strength in the Kharkiv avenue of approach and, in time, to the Donbas. They will probably use ceasefire negotiations as a delaying tactic to get their men and materiel in a position to make more attacks during new offensives.

Russians Are Licking Their Wounds

The good news for the Ukrainians is that the retreating Russians who attacked Kyiv from the north and east are in poor shape.

The Russians will have to figure out exactly who is still alive, treat their wounded, take an inventory of armored vehicles, and maintain some form of rejuvenation and morale adjustment. They need food and rest plus maintenance on surviving vehicles and their ammunition replenished.

This delay in further offensive operations will give the Ukrainians time to do the same thing, so the war in the north will pause as both sides recover.

What Does the Geography of the Battlefield Look Like?

The Institute for the Study of War has determined the geographical array of forces as of April 4. “Russian forces are likely abandoning the east bank of the Dnipro fully as well, withdrawing from around Chernihiv to the north and from Brovary to the east. Russian troops will likely seek to hold a salient around Konotop and Sumy long enough to allow their forces to complete their retrograde from near Kyiv but will then likely withdraw back to Russia from almost all their positions west of Kharkiv.”

Some Russians Do Not Want to Fight in Ukraine

The Russians are being forced to deal with beleaguered troops with bad attitudes. High casualties have Vladimir Putin’s forces behaving not only as war criminals, but they are refusing orders from commanders, according to reports from British intelligence.

Lack of Competent NCOs and Junior Officers

The Russians do not have a quality professional non-commissioned officer (NCO) corps. The lack of quality NCOs leaves conscripts to their own devices. Many of these draftees do not have the will to fight. NCOs can also supplement company-grade officers in a way that would lead to better combat performance. But the junior officers are under-performing leading to generals joining the front lines to take over command.

Ukrainee Know What They Are Doing

The Ukrainians will take pride in their fight against Vladimir Putin’s forces. Successfully defending Kyiv gives them a boost in morale and confidence that their forces are better qualitatively than Russian forces. This, unfortunately, is not the last of the fighting. Putin is likely to refuse to give in even though his army is not exhibiting successful combined arms warfare.

The Russian army was supposed to have been modernized for 21st-century warfare, but now they are exhibiting tactics from a bygone era. They do not display a successful recipe for joint warfighting.

Now serving as 1945’s Defense and National Security Editor, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer. You can follow him on Twitter @BMEastwood.

Written By

Now serving as 1945s New Defense and National Security Editor, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer.

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Alex

    April 4, 2022 at 7:52 pm

    One lie and propaganda. There is not a single evidence of war crimes of the people’s militia of Donbass and Russia. But there is evidence of war crimes by Bandera Nazis. Great Britain refused to hold a meeting of the Security Council on the situation in Bucha. In any case, the meeting will take place and the Anglo-Saxons will be just as bad as with Colin Powell’s test tube, where the washing powder turned out to be.
    The fighting is proceeding in accordance with the strategy of the General Staff and the Kremlin. How and what is planned is not known anywhere and in any special service of the world, and even more so by fantasy journalists thousands of kilometers away. One thing is certain: Ukrainian forces are being surrounded or surrounded. For example, two hundred and sixty-seven marines from the 503rd battalion (assigned to the 36th Marine Corps) surrendered to the Russian armed forces in Mariupol on Monday. So dreams and reality are completely different.

  2. sprinter

    April 4, 2022 at 8:06 pm

    Are the bandera associates of zorro? Zorro is a great hero in the stories of California and zorro is an honourable man that fights for justice against the republican bad men, who seem to do much evil. What with their marching into the people’s rsncheros with weak excuses.

  3. speedster

    April 4, 2022 at 9:32 pm

    The number of marines you have provided does not fall within a Fibonacci series, which would appear to throw doubt on your claim.

    The security council has a veto power by each country including Russia. This means if Russian atrocities were brought forward to the council, Russia can veto the proposal even if every other country in the council considers Russia atrocities egregious.

    Russia invaded the territorial integrity of ukraine after first having promised it would not invade. Then Russia got a neo Nazi craze and to show how much it loved the nazis, it put half swastika on all its invading tanks so the Ukrainians would know what the invaders were like. The Ukrainians were alarmed by the half swastika tanks because there Jewish president wanted morning to do with even Russian nazis.
    Then to compound things the russians sent magical 1200 missiles hundreds of kilometres that could somehow not hit civilians and children.

  4. Alex

    April 5, 2022 at 11:09 am

    Fibonacci, Porter, etc. Youngster, you don’t even know who it is or what they wrote about. You’re trying to look smart, but you’re acting dumb and funny.
    This is one of the many thousands who laid down their arms. Why are they giving up? Because in captivity they have a good attitude. Why don’t Bandera Nazis surrender? Because they will have to answer for their atrocities.
    Of course, every bastard will answer for everything. For 8 years of killing and torturing children in Donbass, for torturing and brutally killing civilians.
    In any case, you will be destroyed, even those who do not yell at the gun, but support the Bandera Nazis sitting far behind the monitor, hiding behind their mother’s skirt. They were always found and punished too.

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