Does Britain’s Security Deals with Finland and Sweden Indicate NATO Membership Plans? – On Wednesday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson visited both Finland and Sweden to sign new security deals with the two countries. Under the new pact, the United Kingdom would come to the aid of Finland or Sweden if they came under attack from a foreign military. And, you guessed it, that likely would mean Russia in almost any thinkable scenario.
The deal comes as the two continental European countries consider whether to break decades of neutrality and join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
During a press conference in Finland, the British prime minister said that direct military assistance would be offered to both countries in the event of an attack, but the “nature of that assistance” would also depend on the “request of the other party.”
It means that Britain wouldn’t necessarily put British boots on the ground in the event of a strike against Finland or NATO, but that it could happen.
“If Sweden were attacked and looked to us for help and support, then we would provide it,” Johnson said.
What Does This Mean for NATO Membership?
Finland and Sweden are expected to announce whether or not the two countries intend to submit formal applications to join NATO sometime this week – and whatever the two countries decide will have profound implications.
The two historically neutral countries deciding to join the military alliance would effectively surround Russia with NATO countries.
Historically, NATO’s eastward expansion has been objected to by the Kremlin each time it happened. Russian President Vladimir Putin even sought assurances from the West that Ukraine would not join NATO, and the lack of such assurances arguably led to the Kremlin’s decision to invade in the first place.
Deciding against joining NATO, however, leaves the two countries potentially vulnerable to Russia – bar the newly-vowed military support from the United Kingdom. It would also give Russia one small victory in the conflict, and show that the country’s threats to Finland and Sweden are still effective.
While Finland and Sweden have yet to formally announce their intentions regarding NATO, Britain’s new security deal with the two countries does raise some questions.
Could it be that Finland and Sweden have chosen not to join NATO, and will instead rely on the chain reaction that Russia engaging in military threats against the two countries would have under the new deal with the United Kingdom?
If Russia engages Finland and Sweden militarily, the United Kingdom would respond militarily. In such an event, NATO countries could also be obliged to respond to Russia if that military conflict was sustained with the United Kingdom. It gives Finland and Sweden some level of protection and would likely make Russia think twice about making further threats, without either country formally joining NATO.
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.
