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War in Ukraine Could Last As Long As 10 Years: British Foreign Secretary

MLRS to Ukraine?
MLRS weapons system. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

As the war in Ukraine shifts to the country’s eastern Donbas region, and with the United States and NATO committed to providing even more funding and assistance to Ukraine through at least the rest of the year, the question of how long the war in Ukraine will last is on everybody’s lips.

Nobody can answer the question accurately, however, and the truth is that the war will probably last for as long as Russian President Vladimir Putin can continue fighting – or until he can achieve something in Ukraine that he can paint as a victory to his people.

United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken told European allies in April that it is  the opinion of the U.S. government that the war will likely last through the end of 2022.

Speaking to CNN, unnamed European officials said that the Russian president’s goals in Ukraine have not yet changed – despite being forced to order his troops to retreat from Kyiv and central Ukraine – and that it’s unlikely at this stage the Russian leader will pursue diplomatic negotiations.

“Could Last Years”

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned in April that the conflict in Ukraine was entering a “dangerous” new phase. Speaking to NPR, Stoltenberg said that Vladimir Putin had not “changed his overall aim” in Ukraine and that he still intends to take control of the country.

In the month since, Russian forces have focused their efforts on the eastern Donbas region, taking full control of the city of Mariupol, blocking Ukraine’s ports, and advancing westward from Luhansk and Donetsk.

Stoltenberg echoed the United States’ suggestion that Putin would not sit down and engage in “good faith” negotiations for a diplomatic solution.

“Therefore, we need to also be prepared for the long haul,” he said. “And it’s hard to predict. Wars are always unpredictable. But this can last for months and even years.”

Liz Truss Says 10 Years

British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss also warned that the war in Ukraine could last as long as 10 years.

During a foreign policy event last month, Truss warned of “untold further misery” across Europe and serious global consequences if Russia succeeds in its war in Ukraine, and said that the West “must be prepared for the long haul.”

Calling on NATO countries to continue providing support to Ukraine, Truss also suggested that the war could last for as long as a decade.

Three months into the war, however, it’s clear that Russia can’t go on at its current pace without making changes to its strategy – whether that involves enlisting the support of its allies or changing its overall goal in the country.

Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.

Written By

Jack Buckby is 19FortyFive's Breaking News Editor. He is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.

4 Comments

4 Comments

  1. Jacksonian Libertarian

    May 28, 2022 at 8:09 pm

    10 years is BS. The Russians are already running out of men and material, bringing the T-62 which hasn’t been built in 47 years to Ukraine is an admission of Russian losses. If the 1st world can supply Ukraine with what it needs to fight, the Russians will be force to withdraw in another couple of months. Russian missiles are also in short supply, having used 2,100+ they don’t have more than 1,000 left and they can’t afford to use everything. I don’t think the Russians have used their missiles effectively since so many targets are civilian buildings.

    • John Catsicas

      May 29, 2022 at 3:19 am

      The war will last until the USA and Britian stop commiting to funding Ukraine. Both countries have deeply unpopular leaders. Biden will effectively be out by Februsry 2023 and Johnson will be lucky to survive the winter with increasing energy prices. Let Russia take some land – it will be a phyricc victory as they will have to contend with a costly COIN in the captured region.

  2. Bertram

    May 28, 2022 at 10:39 pm

    Russia can’t survive bleeding like this for another 10 years.
    Putin won’t survive another year of this.

  3. Stefan Stackhouse

    May 30, 2022 at 3:54 pm

    The war in Korea has lasted over seventy years, and might very well go on for another seventy. Of course, the shooting stopped long ago. It is what you would call a “frozen conflict”. I suspect much the same will be the outcome in Ukraine.

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