Will Trump Announce 2024 Run Early? – Reports suggest that over the last week, former President Donald Trump has told his closest associates that he is eager to launch a third presidential campaign as soon as this month. Rumors previously suggested that the former president was preparing to make his announcement sometime after the November midterm elections, aiming to capitalize on the expected GOP successes and take credit for winning back control of Congress.
However, announcing early could help Trump maintain his grip over the party and put possible 2024 Republican contenders on notice.
Revealing the news that Trump could announce his next run as early as this summer, The New York Times suggested that Trump’s early announcement plans could be an attempt to stop voters from drifting away from his Make America Great Again vision and into the arms of other America First candidates.
“Mr. Trump has also watched as some of his preferred candidates have lost recent primary elections, raising hopes among his potential Republican competitors that voters may be drifting from a politician long thought to have an iron grip on the party,” The Times reported, adding that Trump intends to “steal attention” from rivals like Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
But announcing early isn’t without risks.
Why Trump Is Taking A Risk
Announcing his third consecutive presidential campaign early will certainly give Trump more time on the campaign trail. It will also prove a thorn in the side of the Biden administration in a way perhaps no other modern presidential campaign has bothered an incumbent president. However, the decision wouldn’t be without complications.
Perhaps the biggest risk the former president will be taking is betting that the Republicans will win the November midterm elections, and that he’ll be able to take credit for the victory. Trump knows that the Republicans are on track to win back control of the House and potentially even the Senate, but five months in politics is a very long time. In the months leading up to the midterm elections, anything from the Roe v Wade ruling and the political fallout of that decision to the partisan coverage of the January 6 committee investigations could provide sufficient distractions for the Democrats to pull voters away from the GOP.
If the Republicans don’t perform as well as expected, Trump could also be held responsible.
However, polls still show that the Republicans are on track to perform exceptionally well later this year, with voters unhappy with the performance of the president and “persuadable” voters leaning GOP rather than Democrat. Unless President Joe Biden reverses inflation and gas prices sometime before the midterms, and before voters go to the polls to decide the next president, then former President Donald Trump is still on a great footing to take back the White House in 2024.
And now that we know that the president’s plan to reduce gas prices is to simply tell gas suppliers to bring them down, and with his approval ratings at an all-time low, the former president presumably knows that announcing his campaign now could take down the sitting president at his weakest moment.
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.