How Does A Trump/Biden Re-Match Look Right Now? With former President Donald Trump still unofficially on the campaign trail for his rumored and unannounced 2024 presidential run, speculation about a Trump-Biden rematch is as prevalent as ever.
Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said this week that he would be “shocked” if the former president doesn’t run again, noting that “all the polling shows he would be the front-runner by a country mile.”
Business Insider also reported this week that the former president recently asked advisers how he should go about attacking former Cabinet members and political allies who are considering running in 2024 – yet another indication that Trump is looking to re-enter the White House.
It’s the perfect time, too. President Joe Biden’s approval ratings hit an all-time low this month, and other polls have repeatedly shown that former President Trump would win handily in a re-match – assuming that political and economic situations remain the same.
This Is What the Polls Say
In March, as American voters were beginning to feel the pinch of rising inflation, a Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll published by The Hill gave former President Donald Trump a six-point advantage over President Joe Biden and an even larger 11-point advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris.
The poll aimed to find out how the Democrats would fare if Biden followed through on suggestions that he would run again, or if the party chooses his natural successor, Vice President Harris, in the next Democratic presidential primaries.
Biden’s plummeting approval ratings also give us a look at how American voters are responding to his performance so far, and how they may vote in the future. The latest data shows that Biden’s approval rating at this stage of his first term is lower than Trump’s ratings at the same point in his first term.
While the data doesn’t technically show whether voters would prefer Trump over Biden, it does indicate that the current president has a real challenge on his hands to win over voters who supported him in the last election – should he ultimately decide to run again.
Will Biden Run?
That’s the big question – and at this stage, some might argue that former President Donald Trump’s candidacy is more certain than President Joe Biden’s.
President Biden has sent mixed signals over his intention to run again in 2024. After initially describing himself as a “transitional” president, suggesting that Vice President Kamala Harris could be his natural successor next time around, the president indicated in March that he would run again.
During a press conference at NATO headquarters, Biden was asked whether his foreign policy efforts could be undermined by a Trump 2024 election win.
“I don’t criticize anybody for asking that question,” Biden told reporters. “But the next election, I’d be very fortunate if I had that same man running against me.”
The future remains uncertain, with polling data at this stage unlikely to reflect polls conducted two and a half years into the future – but as it stands, President Biden is definitely at a major disadvantage.
Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.