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2020 Rematch: Trump vs. Biden in 2024 (Who Would Win?)

Donald Trump
Trump rally in 2020. Image: Gage Skidmore.

How Does A Trump/Biden Re-Match Look Right Now? With former President Donald Trump still unofficially on the campaign trail for his rumored and unannounced 2024 presidential run, speculation about a Trump-Biden rematch is as prevalent as ever.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham said this week that he would be “shocked” if the former president doesn’t run again, noting that “all the polling shows he would be the front-runner by a country mile.”

Business Insider also reported this week that the former president recently asked advisers how he should go about attacking former Cabinet members and political allies who are considering running in 2024 – yet another indication that Trump is looking to re-enter the White House.

It’s the perfect time, too. President Joe Biden’s approval ratings hit an all-time low this month, and other polls have repeatedly shown that former President Trump would win handily in a re-match – assuming that political and economic situations remain the same.

This Is What the Polls Say

In March, as American voters were beginning to feel the pinch of rising inflation, a Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll published by The Hill gave former President Donald Trump a six-point advantage over President Joe Biden and an even larger 11-point advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris.

The poll aimed to find out how the Democrats would fare if Biden followed through on suggestions that he would run again, or if the party chooses his natural successor, Vice President Harris, in the next Democratic presidential primaries.

Biden’s plummeting approval ratings also give us a look at how American voters are responding to his performance so far, and how they may vote in the future. The latest data shows that Biden’s approval rating at this stage of his first term is lower than Trump’s ratings at the same point in his first term.

While the data doesn’t technically show whether voters would prefer Trump over Biden, it does indicate that the current president has a real challenge on his hands to win over voters who supported him in the last election – should he ultimately decide to run again.

Will Biden Run?

That’s the big question – and at this stage, some might argue that former President Donald Trump’s candidacy is more certain than President Joe Biden’s.

President Biden has sent mixed signals over his intention to run again in 2024. After initially describing himself as a “transitional” president, suggesting that Vice President Kamala Harris could be his natural successor next time around, the president indicated in March that he would run again.

During a press conference at NATO headquarters, Biden was asked whether his foreign policy efforts could be undermined by a Trump 2024 election win.

“I don’t criticize anybody for asking that question,” Biden told reporters. “But the next election, I’d be very fortunate if I had that same man running against me.”

The future remains uncertain, with polling data at this stage unlikely to reflect polls conducted two and a half years into the future – but as it stands, President Biden is definitely at a major disadvantage.

Jack Buckby is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.

Written By

Jack Buckby is 19FortyFive's Breaking News Editor. He is a British author, counter-extremism researcher, and journalist based in New York. Reporting on the U.K., Europe, and the U.S., he works to analyze and understand left-wing and right-wing radicalization, and reports on Western governments’ approaches to the pressing issues of today. His books and research papers explore these themes and propose pragmatic solutions to our increasingly polarized society.

5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. Him

    June 12, 2022 at 10:06 pm

    The result of a 2024 rematch of Biden and Trump entirely depends on whether the American people, four years later, are willing to look at evidence, or if the American’s exhibit “Russian” behaviour in terms of swallowing Media propaganda with no testing.

    For example, if the Media tells the American people that something is “safe and effective” – but there is scientific evidence to the contrary – do the American people just go with the Media’s information?

    For example, if the Media tells the American people that something is “baseless” – but there is evidence to the contrary – do the American people just go with the Media’s information?

    i.e. in terms of following their Media, do American’s behave like Russians?

    For example, even today, the vast majority of people in my circle have never heard of the “Hunter Biden laptop” – let along grappled with the implications of the content of the laptop.

    Here are some things that the American people simply went along with the Media’s “safe and effective” message:

    – the State Senate Hearings in Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin which happened just weeks after the 2020 Election. (The videos of these State Senate Hearings are still on YouTube at Right Side Broadcasting Network, searching for the name of the state followed by state senate, e.g. Arizona State Senate hearing, and look for the videos that are many hours long.) The evidence in these early State Senate Hearings were merely indications that something was wrong. The stronger proof took longer to emerge.

    – Later, there were the citizens groups that checked voter rolls to find masses of discrepancies that could be exploited by fake mail in ballots.

    – the Pennsylvania Supreme Court allowing out-of-time mail in ballots to be counted, contrary to Pennsylvania state law (c.f. Justice Alito in the U.S. Supreme Court).

    – the testing of the Dominion Machines in Antrim County, Michigan, and later in Georgia.

    – the Maricopa County audit in Arizona

    – the evidence-movie in 2000 mules.

    These are just some brief highlights, but if you wish to fill in the gaps, it’d require a day of your time to go through the past year’s archives of thegatewaypundit.com

    A recurring theme – in trying to use the evidence to bring accountability – is how it was stymied by individuals from both parties, both Democrat and Republican.

    For example, a key piece of evidence that needed to be tested in the Maricopa audit was the internet routers – but the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors fought long and hard to block access to testing the routers, that the Senate had ordered. (The long and short of it is that an Arizona Senator did a deal with the Board to waive the requirement to test the routers; and it so happened that the particular Senator’s building company subsequently got a $400+ million contract from the Arizona government).

    It’s not possible to adequately summarise one and half year’s worth of developments into a few summary passages – but when the Media continues to say “baseless” and “safe and effective”, the population of America behaves like the Russians. Human nature is the same – and the average human (throughout the world) hates being told they’re wrong.

    If you tell a person they’re wrong, and they become belligerent and argumentative, that is precisely how they’ll act when presented with evidence that they took the wrong side in politics.

    In summary, if the average American, four years down the track, turns a blind-eye to any evidence that the Media says is “baseless”, then it’s a case of the Americans deserve what they get.

    For example, if you take an American who is wholly into the “safe and effective narrative” – and you show them the Pfizer documents forced out of Pfizer under Freedom of Information in December 2021 – and that person instantly, without reading it, just dismisses the document, you will have seen for yourself that the propensity to just go along with whatever their Media tells them, is not unique to Americans or Russians.

  2. Dave Nelson

    June 13, 2022 at 4:52 pm

    50 year (now former) Republican here; It is essential Trump is not returned to the White House. He is clinically a mentally ill narcissist, deep into the spectrum, and all we could expect from him is constant preening about himself, bullying, and the exercise of whatever power he has to exact revenge, all to the extent his first term would look like he had been the most mature and subtle President ever.

    Biden is an old fool, Harris far worse. The country needs a complete break from both of these parties, whoever can pull the country back towards the center.

    • Him

      June 13, 2022 at 8:53 pm

      I’m curious: Do you make that comment from the perspective that there was, or wasn’t sufficient election fraud and fake ballots to change the actual result of the 2020 Election?

      I realise that your commentary perfectly aligns with the image portrayed by the likes of the New York Times and Washington Post – but over his 4 years, as I absorbed his style of speaking with a large range of people (minus the headline grabbing reports of the NYT, WaPo etc.) I came to see a different person compared to the persona portrayed by the media.

      So I’m wondering about the backstory of your comments.

    • MePaleface

      June 14, 2022 at 9:35 pm

      You weren’t a Republican for 50 years.

    • PS11B10

      June 15, 2022 at 8:12 am

      The 2024 Presidential Election could literally break this country in two and spark the kind of Balkanization and fighting only seen in places like Bosnia and much of the Third World. For example, a rematch between the two with President Trump *losing* reelection despite Biden’s poll numbers would pretty much trigger the ‘hot side’ of Low Intensity Conflict in this country as there would be real and very serious questions regarding election integrity; IMO, there wouldn’t be anywhere near enough money to be an election official after that as they would be prime targets for direct action. The Left would have a collective freakout over a Trump reelection and return to the ‘Days of Rage’ of the 1970’s but this time with the goal of causing intentional casualties, not just political statements. As of this writing, we are witnessing the Left begin to ramp up to this kind of political terrorism with the recent attempt on the life a SCOTUS judge and attacks on multiple pro-life centers across the United States. 2024 could be an ugly time in American history.

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