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Is China Really Thinking About Invading Taiwan Soon?

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Chinese nuclear missile submarines. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

The Taiwan Visit Aftermath: Is China Thinking Invasion? The visit of the U.S. Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, to the small island nation has angered Beijing, which has started an aggressive series of wargames and military exercises in the seas and skies that surround Taiwan.

In the background of the truculent Chinese behavior seems to be a desire to force the reunification with Taiwan sooner than later.

The Background 

The Chinese military is conducting wargames and military drills around Taiwan from August 4 to 7, with some of the military drills taking place right on the Taiwanese territorial waters and skies.

While it is no secret that Beijing’s main foreign policy priority is to reunify with Taiwan, whether through peaceful negotiations or force, the issue has been stagnant for decades.

The U.S. has agreed to the “One China Policy,” acknowledging that there is only one China, but has also supported Taiwanese freedom of action. For decades, Beijing was not strong enough militarily to force the issue. But a vast modernization effort of the Chinese armed forces in the last years has strengthened the Chinese military and has given Chinese leaders more options.

Chinese Premier Xi Jinping has indicated that he wants to bring Taiwan under the CCP fold sooner or later. His predecessors wanted the same, but they lacked the military capabilities to do so. But now, the Chinese military is a force to be reckoned with.

Indeed, U.S. defense officials have indicated that the Chinese military could achieve regional superiority in the Indo-Pacific as soon as 2025. And recent reports indicate that Xi Jinping might decide to invade before the 2024 U.S. presidential elections and catch the U.S. by surprise while it’s preoccupied with the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The U.S. Response 

The U.S. has tried to keep the tensions down, repeatedly stating that Pelosi’s trip wasn’t intended to anger Beijing. To be sure, there seems to be some conflict of opinions within the administration on whether Pelosi should have taken the trip now. But, as it should in national security and foreign policy issues, the White House is keeping a unified front.

“You have heard us say this before. The Speaker had every right to go to Taiwan. Members of Congress [and the] Congress make those decisions. We do not tell them what they can and cannot do, where they can travel. We have said this many times before, we provide a full thorough briefing when they do travel,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a press briefing on Friday.

U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific area of operations remain on high alert following the Chinese military drills.

“And, so, again, there was no reason to have this escalation we’re seeing from China. It is fundamentally irresponsible what they are doing, and we will continue our efforts to keep open the lines of communication with Beijing while defending our interests and values in the region. This is what the world expects [from] the United States and China, and we encourage Beijing to keep this commitment as well when it comes to the climate dialogue—to the military and climate dialogue that was cancelled,” Jean-Pierre added.

1945’s New Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business InsiderSandboxx, and SOFREP.

1945’s Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist with specialized expertise in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

8 Comments

8 Comments

  1. cobo

    August 5, 2022 at 7:58 pm

    No, no, no dude, you got it all wrong. Look, I got this friend. Well, a friend of a friend, you know. Here’s how it’s going down. China thinks they’ve made their point over ROC. They don’t want to go too far, because, you know, business. But what they don’t know is that while they’re standing down, you know, it’s all over and they said what needed to be said, like, right? Well, they’re going to be attacked, hard, nuked, everything. Like, they’re gone – litl bro NK going down too. Russia is actually down with this, with us. They know you want the eastern part of their land. Be cool man, it’s going down hard.

  2. Ben Leucking

    August 5, 2022 at 9:20 pm

    Is that what crystal meth does to your brain? Just curious.

  3. David Chang

    August 6, 2022 at 7:05 am

    God bless people in the world.

    We have socialism war in Ukraine now, and Democratic party continue to incite another socialism war, but is U.S. military ready to fight?

    God bless America.

  4. cobo

    August 6, 2022 at 8:09 pm

    Ben Leucking, I wouldn’t know. I was taking too much LSD at the time, back when San Diego was the meth capital of the world, until the triple net sting, that is.

  5. marcjf

    August 7, 2022 at 4:06 am

    The PRC has many options short of invasion, both military and economic/political. They may well play a longer game and take their revenge cold, at a time of their own choosing. And if and when they do you can expect it will not be good for either Taiwan or the USA.

  6. Paddy Manning

    August 7, 2022 at 6:51 am

    There’s 100 miles of sea between China and Taiwan. Unless Xi is as stupid as Putin he knows an invasion force would be decimated in the hours it would take to cross.
    Of course he may bank on the Chinese air force taking out the Taiwanese defenses at an extent to make an attack, still massively costly in losses, viable.
    China gas modernised it’s army, how much it has improved us an open question. Chinese military are very good at genocide, forced organ transplants and crushing unarmed protestors under tanks. War us a different game. Having modern weapons is not the same as waging a modern war.
    The economic shock of a Chinese attempt to invade Taiwan would be savage and destabilising. Xi will be conscious of the dangers to himself and his tyranny from such a shock.

  7. El Toro

    August 7, 2022 at 11:23 am

    One only needs to look as far as Hong Kong to see how Taiwan will will be “invaded”. China will take Taiwan without firing a shot by infiltrating their government with pro-china puppets. It’s already happening.

  8. Jim

    August 7, 2022 at 11:50 am

    Imminent invasion will not happen.

    But what does happen… well, that’s in the tea leaves.

    What is the best policy for the U. S. going forward?

    Keeping the Peace between China & Taiwan is the best policy… The Highest priority? Peace between China & America.

    How to effectuate Peace between the two powers?

    Don’t let a war start over Taiwan is the first step.

    Taiwan is a self-governing island and a vibrant democracy.

    Let’s keep it that way by keeping the peace.

    Peace over War… what a novel concept.

    War drums… how does that help?

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