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Mar-a-Lago Raid Endgame: Donald Trump Gets Indicted or Wins 2024 Election

Donald Trump in Oval Office
President Trump Speaks on the Phone with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel, and Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the United Arab Emirates

The unprecedented FBI raid on former President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home will have either one of two results—and almost certainly won’t have any middle ground.

Either the Justice Department and the FBI will be conquering heroes that finally slayed their dragon, or Trump will be re-elected in 2024.

First Option: The Justice Department finally has Trump dead to rights.

The FBI wouldn’t step out on this type of ledge without having everything lined up. They would have to know better than to overreach yet again—which only serves as a boon for Trump. This will likely lead to a Trump indictment, perhaps for mishandling of classified material with regards to the Presidential Records Act—the grounds for the search warrant.

Or possibly, the Presidential Records Act served as the legal grounds to secure a search warrant. The real target is evidence that of Trump’s role in the Jan. 6 riots and potentially criminal conduct to overturn the 2020 election—as the House Select Committee members have been telling us for months.

After years of false starts, the walls really have closed in on Trump, as MSNBC, Jennifer Rubin and others have promised us for so long. We were starting to doubt Rachel Maddow and the Morning Joe crew. That’s only because we didn’t know what evidence was amassing behind the scenes.

At last, the evidence will be convincing. Maybe it won’t be enough to convince the Trump diehards. But it will be enough to convince those who were on board with Trump policies and have distrusted—and maybe misjudged—the FBI’s mishaps in the past.

The Second Option: The FBI clumsily re-elected Trump.

This is just another rerun in the anti-Trump obsession drama. The FBI and the machinery of the Justice Department, along with other Trump enemies keep saying, “You’ll see,” or “Next time, we’ll get him.” And those walls we keep hearing about just never close in—and they probably never will.

Like the Russia collusion debacle, the Ukraine impeachment, the New York District Attorney’s office investigation into the Trump Organization, yet another anti-Trump case will fall apart.

The Justice Department will come up empty handed even after the raid. No indictment. AGAIN.

The documents they obtained from the raid will provide no evidence of criminal wrongdoing. AGAIN.

While hardcore MAGA types and rabid Trump haters often take up most of the oxygen in modern political dialogue, most of the public falls somewhere in between.

Many of those people in the middle—for whom politics plays a small role in their lives—might well have reasonably assumed all these years, this guy could be guilty of something. Otherwise, what is all the noise about?

But if an unprecedented move of raiding a former president’s home turns up nothing, failing to prove anything—AGAIN—then that middle crowd is going to find Trump’s “witch hunt” argument very convincing. It will appear that

This doesn’t mean those in the middle will dive headfirst MAGA. It does mean fair-minded people will believe—based on the cumulative effect—Trump’s enemies are stalking him.

While I would normally never underestimate Trump’s capacity to overreach himself and ruin a victory, that might not even be applicable here. People know who Trump is. If this action is yet another failure, it will be a new revelation for many, revealing who the Justice Department and FBI really are.

Verdict: This is the ultimate put-up-or-shut-up moment for the Justice Department.

We’ve finished up Russia collusion and two failed impeachments. We are looking at a likely failed effort to tie him directly to the Jan. 6 riot. So, now the DOJ is trying to string Trump up on a violation of the Presidential Records Act?

This is almost certainly the last best shot, at least for federal prosecutors (stay tuned on probes in Georgia and New York).

The raid was the splashiest move the Justice Department could take. So, it better be good.

Fred Lucas is chief national affairs correspondent for The Daily Signal and co-host of “The Right Side of History” podcast. Lucas is also the author of “Abuse of Power: Inside The Three-Year Campaign to Impeach Donald Trump.”

Written By

Fred Lucas is chief national affairs correspondent for The Daily Signal and co-host of "The Right Side of History" podcast. Lucas is also the author of "Abuse of Power: Inside The Three-Year Campaign to Impeach Donald Trump."



  1. Trump criminality

    August 10, 2022 at 3:28 pm

    Trump was impeached twice. Because he wasn’t convicted by a republicans senate is immaterial to the fact. He was impeached and will go down in history carrying that dubious honor. Further, he has more to worry about than just FBI indictment. He’ll spend the rest of his life in court or hopefully, prison.

  2. Jim Higgins

    August 10, 2022 at 4:26 pm

    The Geheime Staatspolizei, abbreviated FBI.

  3. pagar

    August 10, 2022 at 5:29 pm

    Mar-a-lago is a consequence of trump failing to truly drain the swamp immediately after entering office in january 2017.

    The swamp rigged the results of the nov 2020 election and so you now have the gazpacho guys ruffling the bedroom safe and even seizing the ally’s mobile smartphone. Heh.

  4. GhostTomahawk

    August 10, 2022 at 9:20 pm

    Trumps impeachments were complete fantasy. Political theater at its worst.

    What is going to happen is when the GOP take control? Well this turn into a tit for tat? It should. Our govt needs to remember that the shoe can be on the other foot. Biden Clinton need to be indicted all the deep state cover need to be exposed. They’re corrupt and are being covered. To restore faith in our govt world wide these people need to perp walk. Not Trump. He may be corrupt but the ends don’t justify the means

  5. CRS, DrPH

    August 10, 2022 at 9:28 pm

    The FBI broke into the Don’s safe. Just wait. Trump thought he was home free. Personally, I think he was marketing state secrets to the highest bidder & FBI learned about it via counterintelligence channels.

  6. aldol11

    August 11, 2022 at 7:06 am

    Donald Trump Gets Indicted or Wins 2024 Election or both

  7. Rich

    August 11, 2022 at 11:41 am

    Funny how those clamoring for Trump’s prosecution saw nothing wrong with Hillary’s storage of classified documents on her private server nor the fact that she deleted over 30,000 subpoenaed emails. The Hunter Biden shenanigans don’t phase them. Nor does the “Big Guy” getting a 10% cut even register with them. Falsifying documents to illegally get a judge to sign a warrant isn’t even questioned. Funny how the demand for justice changes depending on what side you belong to.

  8. Mario

    August 11, 2022 at 2:29 pm

    Viewed from Europe (and the whole universe except redneck’s counties), donald frederikovich trumpa, is no more than a putin’s puppet. And viewed from America and environs… Well, americans doesn’t have a (reasonable) point of view.
    In any normal democracy (AKA Europe, the place from any withe american comes), that guy would be behind bars accused of high treason.
    BTW: the russian plot to make that corrupt a POTUS was really brilliant…

  9. Mario

    August 11, 2022 at 2:34 pm

    Del mar al lago, is consecuence of the theft of documentation by the former president…
    We do not know whether to sell it to the highest bidder or to give it to Volodimir putin

  10. Mario

    August 11, 2022 at 2:37 pm

    Obviously, in a serious country, Trump would already be in prison (accused, of course, of high treason).

  11. Yrral

    August 11, 2022 at 5:07 pm

    Garland too ask federal judge to unseal Trump warrant, Google Garland Trump Warrant Unseal

  12. Dr. Scooter Van Neuter

    August 12, 2022 at 12:05 pm

    It’s nice to see the Soviet-era KGB make a comeback, eh comrades?
    This administration should all be in prison.

  13. Daniel

    January 26, 2023 at 4:54 pm

    The hatred for this unbelievably great man is stunning. He continues to battle the media who continues their relentless attack on him after 6 years. It’s almost comical how these mindless drones (hard core leftists democrats). The ones that watch CNN, MSNBC and the likes of these lying anti Americans. Wake up Dummy Drones!

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