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There Is Only 1 Way the Ukraine War Can End

Ukraine Russia
Russian T-80 tank. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

How the Ukraine War Will End: In the heady days of September and October, the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) won remarkable military victories over the Russian invaders, recapturing thousands of square miles of territory. Many in the West interpreted those successes as “irreversible” proof Kyiv was on its way to victory, and thus there was no need to consider a negotiated settlement with Moscow. The stark, cold realities of modern warfare, however, reveal that to the contrary, there is no end to the war in sight, and the most likely case remains – however unpopular in the Western world – a negotiated settlement.

The only question that remains: how many more Ukrainians must die before this harsh reality is grasped by the leaders of both warring parties?

There are a great many in the United States and the Western world that genuinely does believe Kyiv can win its war with Moscow and eventually drive all of Putin’s forces back to Russia. Last week Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated his longstanding boast that his forces would “definitely liberate Crimea.” Former four-star U.S. general Ben Hodges predicted that by the end of this year, the UAF would “push Russian troops back to positions” they held prior to the start of the war and “by the middle of next year Ukrainians will be in Crimea.”

It must also be remembered that a senior Ukrainian official boasted in July that “the Kherson region will definitely be liberated by September, and all the occupiers’ plans will fail.” Tellingly, of this writing, the UAF has yet to even begin an assault on the city of Kherson, much less having taken it two months ago, and it is far from certain the Ukrainian soldiers would succeed. Yet the larger truth is that whether Ukraine takes this city or Russia successfully holds it, the battle remains just that: a battle. The war will continue on irrespective of which side wins the battle over Kherson.

I wrote last Spring that the combat fundamentals of war favored Russia over Ukraine, despite the fact they had recently been driven out of Kyiv and Kharkiv. Nothing in the intervening months have altered the strategic balance. Most wars throughout history swing back and forth, with each side winning some battles, rarely producing a steady trend towards a conclusive outcome.

The ultimate winners, however, are almost always determined by which side has the most fundamentals in its favor. Moreover, success in war usually turns on factors outside of the battlefield. A 2008 U.S. Army War College report notes that “war is a political act,” implying that “tactical or operational victory without favorable political outcomes is sterile.”

Meaning, even “a great battlefield victory may not decide anything either militarily in terms of the campaign or politically in terms of the war.” That describes what we’ve seen in the Russian-Ukraine war for the first nine months of the conflict, as we have witnessed three major swings so far, and none have proven decisive for either side.

Russia made immediate territorial gains in the first few weeks, but then suffered a major setback north of Kyiv and Kharkiv. Moscow then regrouped and went on a three-month swing through the Donbas, before Ukraine struck back and pushed back Russia for the past two months. Putin, however, responded to the setbacks by mobilizing hundreds of thousands of troops, and is even now preparing to launch another major offensive.

Zelensky believes he is still in the driver’s seat, and owing to western military backing, he seems certain he’s going to eventually win. He therefore has no intention of entertaining any notion of a negotiated settlement. Putin, likewise, appears to be fully committed to conquering large swaths of Ukrainian territory, and especially given he’s got a massive new formation ready to strike this winter, he also rejects any possibility of negotiations.

Both leaders are filled with pride, anger, and hatred for the other. The populations in both countries are routinely told in their government-controlled media that their side is going to win. Thus, there is no interest by any party of the conflict to seek a negotiated settlement. In all probability, that means we’ll witness a brutal and bloody winter in which scores of thousands on all sides will die this winter, and possibly hundreds of thousands wounded; millions more may be forced from their homes.

It may be at this point the two leaders come to realize physical victory on the battlefield is so unlikely as to be impossible to attain in a timeframe they can sustain and at a price they can afford. Once the realization sets in that battlefield victory on their terms is not possible, it becomes possible for a leader to contemplate negotiations.

At such a point, it will be possible to negotiate an outcome in which some semblance of a political success can be achieved that will allow each side to end the conflict and claim, even if only meagerly, to have “succeeded.” It is anguishing to realize that neither side is willing to give serious contemplation to a negotiated settlement, because clinging to the emotional belief that “with just a little more effort or support from allies” they can win while ensuring their opponent loses.

In my assessment, both sides possess too much capacity to be authoritatively defeated, and thus outright victory – or outright defeat – is not a realistic outcome. Continuing in the belief they can win, both Zelensky and Putin condemn their own countrymen and citizens to substantially more suffering and death as they fight on.

It is cruel to realize that the overwhelming likelihood is that this war ends in some negotiated settlement where each side gets something its wants and neither side gets everything it desires. That result could have been achieved prior to February 2022. It was possible again in March at the Istanbul meetings. A negotiated settlement is possible now, before the winter.

M777 like in Ukraine

U.S. Soldiers assigned to Attack Battery, 2-12th Field Artillery Battalion, Task Force Rock, 1st Stryker Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, conducts registration and calibration for the M777 A2 Howitzer weapon system in Syria on Sept. 30, 2021. These exercises enable gun sections to deliver timely and accurate fires in support of TF Rock and their fight to defeat Daesh in designated areas of Syria. (U.S. Army photo by Cpl. Isaiah Scott). These are similar to the M777 pieces serving in Ukraine.

Each time the opportunity for a peaceful end was rejected by the two sides, more people died and more cities were destroyed. That vicious cycle will continue, as I project we’ll be in the same no-win position this summer when the next opportunity comes to find a negotiated settlement – after God-only-knows how many more people have been killed or maimed in a pointless striving for the unattainable. Wisdom says the parties should end the war now, on the best possible terms for each side.

But wisdom is an attribute in frighteningly short supply among today’s senior leaders.

Now a 1945 Contributing Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis.


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Written By

Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis1.

82 Comments

82 Comments

  1. Data Relay

    November 4, 2022 at 10:44 pm

    Russia will use the negotiated settlement to re-arm and attack again. Give Ukraine what they need for the knock-out punch.

    • dan mullock

      November 7, 2022 at 6:31 am

      This is unfortunately truly a battle between good and evil. The horrible, deliberately genocidal behavior of the Russians and their ludicrous justifications for the conflict unfortunately mean that there is likely no outcome short of their defeat that is likely to end this conflict. Russia will indeed do what the Data Relay suggests, as they have done since 2014. Rest, re-arm, invade again unless they cannot. The author also ignores that the Russians have lost much of their start of battle advantages; their air and ground forces have lost or expended much of their platforms and weapons, and many of the highest quality personnel and units have been wiped out. The Ukrainians on the other hand continue to improve in quality and grow in quantity. The author ignores his own obviously incorrect earlier forecast that the Russians will perform superior to the Ukrainians. They have not, and today are committing untrained, poorly armed and highly reluctant draftees to front line combat with predictable results. Ukraine should fight until they kill or capture every Russian soldier in Ukraine, or else the Russians will do the same.

  2. H.R. Holm

    November 4, 2022 at 11:19 pm

    Nails it. Negociation is now the only realistic approach, and the sooner the Three Stooge Vain Egos (Putin, Zelensky, and YES, Biden) realize it, the safer we will all be again.
    The other possible ultimate alternative is to horrible to contemplate. (Got that, U.S. & NATO European chickenhawk war-rooters?)

  3. Goran

    November 4, 2022 at 11:27 pm

    “In short, there is no valid military path through which Ukraine can hope that trading space for time will result in stopping Russia’s methodical progress through Ukraine – much less reverse it. To continue contesting every town and city is to ensure the Ukrainian casualties continue to mount and its urban areas destroyed. In the end, Russia is still likely to achieve a tactical victory.” (Daniel Davis, July 7)

    “Once the realization sets in that battlefield victory on their terms is not possible, it becomes possible for a leader to contemplate negotiations.” (Daniel Davis, November 4)

    Negotiations held earlier in the year would have been about how much of its sovereignty and territory would Ukraine pass on to Russia. Negotiations conducted today would not be so one-sided. It is very possible that those odds can shift even further in Ukraine’s favor. And for those who disagree, well, they’ve been wrong before.

  4. gre81

    November 5, 2022 at 1:16 am

    😂Every counter offensive by Ukraine has failed. They are losing men by the hundreds each day. Ukraine has already lost this. It is now the satanic believing west against Russia. I’m not a Putin fan cause I think communism never went away in Russia. But you can’t follow the MSM whore media. They are controlled by the government. Need to follow people who are actually there who report the truth

    • Goran

      November 5, 2022 at 9:57 am

      gre81: “Ukraine has already lost this.”

      Six months ago, the author of this very article we are commenting on, thought the same. He was open with his claims that;
      -Ukraine cannot stop Russian advance, much less push back
      -Russian military will have its victory

      These days and in this very article we are commenting on, the same guy opines about neither side being able to win, he says; “It may be at this point the two leaders come to realize physical victory on the battlefield is so unlikely as to be impossible to attain”.

      So, if ignoring reality is becoming untenable even for Daniel Davis who many see as Putin’s Comical Ali, what makes you so confident that Ukraine lost? Could it be that Russian flag coming down from a government building in Kherson?

    • Froike

      November 6, 2022 at 4:49 pm

      I agree with you about The Liberal Media….but what you have to understand is…that sometimes…they do get it right.
      Yeah, Ukraine is losing personnel and equipment…but the Russian Losses are far greater.
      If The Ukrainian Army had the weaponry in February, that they have now…Russia would have been defeated by August.

      • Frank

        November 7, 2022 at 8:51 am

        Actually, the Russian losses are about a half of those of Ukraine. There was quite a convincing statistical analysis published a few days ago. Those September and October offensives were shockingly costly in lives, while bringing no strategic gains.

  5. jack Dunster

    November 5, 2022 at 3:29 am

    well, mr Putinite, how the hell did you manage to reach the level of Lt. Col. in the US Army? It is well known now the crimes of Russia, and the ways Russia makes war. For Russia to win, either on the battlefield or in some ‘negotiated settlement’, it means death to all Ukrainians, and destruction of the world as it is. The Gulags operate in Russia now, the crimes are immense.. but that is ok with you? No wonder America does not win its wars… with people such as you as its officers…

    • Ole H. Johansen

      November 5, 2022 at 8:47 am

      What about your transgender army?
      People all over the world laugh.

      • Rational Joe

        November 7, 2022 at 9:44 am

        “Whataboutism” makes you a laughing stock.

  6. marcjf

    November 5, 2022 at 3:53 am

    The war will end with a political settlement but the terms of that settlement will be defined by events on the ground.

    I don’t see that the conditions exist for a compromise Peace at present. Ukrainian(USA?) war aims are fanciful and I believe Russian war aims have evolved to encompass the dismantling of Ukraine in its current form and its permanent partition and neutralisation. Either way there are no grounds for talking here.

    So the fighting will go on.

    In the end the West will be unable or unwilling to continue funding and providing weapons. Meantime Russia will continue to deploy more and more of its military potential. This is a war of choice for the west but an existential struggle for Russia. Who will blink first?

    We’ll see if the current bloody stalemate persists through the winter but I suspect events will have moved on by the spring.

  7. Arash P

    November 5, 2022 at 4:54 am

    There are people suffering in poor countries as the result of continuation of this war beside those who were already suffering due to American sanctions and economic warfare.
    There are serious problems to tackle, global warming being the most urgent one. Which is already affecting hundreds of millions of people directly, mostly in poorer countries.

    But ”the leader of the free world” is too busy running what is clearly a proxy war against Russia.
    Not to mention bullying poor countries why don’t they get on board with economic sanctions on Russia against their own national interests!

    Meanwhile, most zombified Americans who couldn’t find Ukraine on a map a year ago, most of them so obese they don’t walk even a single mile a day on average, have become couch generals cheering for the proxy war.

    • Anyone

      November 5, 2022 at 8:57 am

      Poor countries are that way because instead of the men working the fields with shovels, they are lounging around with AKs. Until they change their ways/cultures, I feel no pity for what happens there.

  8. Neil Ross Hutchings

    November 5, 2022 at 7:59 am

    We can hope that one of the participants opens discussions on negotiations at the upcoming G20 Summit in Indonesia. It is fortunate timing that the summit will take place after the U.S. mid-terms as ongoing U.S. support for this proxy war against Russia is the key factor in this conflict continuing into next year. I am not hopeful though, given the advance press releases by the participants.

    So it will likely remain a simmering conflict until one side delivers a decisive blow on the battlefield.

    There was a flurry of media stories this week reporting that the UK defence department stated that the Russians were likely shooting their own retreating soldiers. First, if the stories were true, is this a bad thing from the point of view of the West? Secondly, I am having difficulty remembering any similar stories from Afghanistan, about how concerned the Mujahedeen were about the well being of Russian soldiers? The news stories were slowly being pulled by MSM.

    Are we supposed to believe that Russians are that different than us? Is this supposed to demoralize Russian conscripts or are we in the West the intended targets? Is this the 21st century equivalent of the historical propaganda radio broadcasts from past wars. They were always actors, not elected officials, from what I remember about them.

    If Russia were some evil country where day to day life was drastically different than day to day life in Ukraine, I might care more about this conflict.  But the fact is for the majority of people in the annexed areas their day to day life isn’t going to change much under Russian rule. Your day to day life does drastically change when your homes, businesses and infrastructure are destroyed by war, not to underestimate the accompanying horrible loss of lives on both sides.

    • exordis

      November 6, 2022 at 1:26 am

      I’m not sure about the Russians shooting their retreating soldiers in the Ukrainian conflict, but there is a precedent. It is a historical fact that the Red Army did that very thing in World War 2. “It takes a brave man to be a coward in the Red Army.” – Joseph Stalin

  9. Anyone

    November 5, 2022 at 8:52 am

    As long as the Ukranians will fight, Russia will lose. And the Ukranians will fight. One brain cell says Russian is fighting a war of attrition against a coalition with a GDP >50 times its size. The West will BK Russia with nothing but petty cash.

    Outcome predetermined before even first shot was fired. Any other paper speculation is simply English majors writing papers.

  10. Tomb

    November 5, 2022 at 9:02 am

    Just got off my time machine.
    Here is a report of negotiations :

    Putin and zelensky met at UN bar. Give assault weapons to bartender.

    Putin : will you surrender all of Ukraine ?
    Z: no
    Putin : can we keep land we occupy ?
    Z: no
    Z: my turn… Will you leave Ukraine ?
    Putin : no
    Z: will you leave crimea ?
    Putin : *@! No
    Z: will you pay reparations?
    Putin: no

    Both : bartender, we are done,
    Give us our guns !

    (No, my time machine is not for rent)

    • Glenn N.

      November 5, 2022 at 10:09 am

      I’m as wary as anyone of the hubris infecting commentators on this war. But this is a pretty amateurish analysis replete with tired platitudes and factual errors (e.g. Ben Hodges was never a 4-star general).

  11. Nik

    November 5, 2022 at 9:18 am

    Hey Ukraine how about we start negotiating about 20% territories we Russians just took from you and declared ours? We promised to be good and you don’t join NATO. Btw sorry about 50k-100k dead colaterales

  12. Michael Droy

    November 5, 2022 at 9:28 am

    Poor guy – he seemed pretty switched on at the start. He is quite deluded now.
    The very idea that with <200k men Russia tried to take Kharkov and Kiev is plain daft. Clearly it was just a distraction which is why the land was so quickly given up and why most of the limited fighting was in teh Irpin/Bucha/Hostomel airport small area West of Kiev which caused the diversion of much of Ukraine's forces away from the real target – the dug in defences on the outside of Donbas which then got gradually destroyed over the next 3 monts.

    No one is sending any more arms to Ukraine, just promises for 2023.
    The Ukrainian forces are mostly dead, wounded or deserted with mostly barely trained recruits left (plenty here in London I can tell you).
    The recent retirees from Nato that make up the current recruits are not going to be added to.

    Literally the US has fought Russia to the last (willing) Ukrainian. And lost.
    Nov 8th elections and the media can start to report it.

    As for General Hedges – he is the one that told the world in 2014 that there were 10,000 Russian serving troops in Ukraine – how did that work out? Liar or Liar?

  13. Tom Hickey

    November 5, 2022 at 9:40 am

    Disappointing analysis. While better than the delusional approach of many Western spokespeople, including some retired and still serving Western military, there are factual errors or at least controversial points and some dubious, if not wrong assumptions. Also too much mindreading.

    Hint. This is not just about Ukraine or even chiefly about Ukraine, but rather about geopolitics — and this applies to both sides. This is a struggle between unipolarism (Global West/North) versus multipolarism Global East/South.

    Putin speaks about this clearly in his recent Valdai speech that addresses the history of the last 500 years and also a long-standing US foreign policy about dominance.

    I do agree that a negotiated settlement will be the outcome, but who is standing in the way of this. Putin, representing the combined Russian leadership, has been signaling that Russia is open to such a settlement while Zelensky (and apparently his Western backers) are opposed to it at this point. And it was Ukraine that backed out of the previous negotiations, not Russia, apparently due to the opposition of then British PM Boris Johnson.

    In any case, a negotiated settlement in Ukraine will not end this dynamic which is the dominant one geopolitically and geostrategically in these times. But it would be good to stop the fighting before Russia commences its expected winter offensive and takes down more Ukrainian infrastructure.

  14. Gary Jacobs

    November 5, 2022 at 9:59 am

    LoL, Davis may be right about a negotiated settlement, but that wont be for quite some time, and Russia needs to do a lot more losing before it is capable of accepting realistic terms that wont lead to yet another war.

    What Davis fails to mention is that the rain/mud season came 3+ weeks early this year…and there are plenty of reports, satellite images, and geolocated images from the ground showing the Russians are evacuating Kherson on a massive scale…it remains to be seen if they fight in the city for an extended period to see how many casualties they can inflict on Ukraine as they lose Kherson… or if it is a shorter time to fully leave the city. It also remains to be seen how much equipment the Russians are forced to leave behind in the process.

    Just because Ukraine is not sticking to the timetable mentioned a while back about liberating Kherson by Sept. as Davis clings to, doesnt mean Russia isnt still losing badly in that area. They are.

    In other areas, the Russians are trying to go back on the offensive, and losing badly. In Pavlivka, the Russians sent in wave after wave of assault teams…and they are getting blown to bits. Geolocated footage to prove it is extensive.

    In the Svatove-Kremmina area, based on reporting from several sources – including Former SEAL Team Six Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer, “Russian forces have attacked across the P-66 HWY and now occupy a salient from Novovodiane in the east to the vicinity of Makiivka in the west. The RU salient is dominated by high ground to the west, offers limited cover, and is smothered by UKR artillery.”

    The Russians got themselves into yet another death trap.

    In almost every area of fighting the biggest impediment to further Ukrainian advances right now is still the weather. It will likely be another 3 weeks before there is a chance of cold enough weather to freeze the mud, and hopefully some of the streams, and perhaps even a few rivers. If/when that happens, then maneuver warfare by competent NATO trained Ukrainian troops can begin again.

    Bottom line: rather than being beholden to timetables of the faux ‘experts’ like Daniel Davis the doom and gloom merchant, the Ukrainians appear content to kill as many Russians as possible from the positions that they are in and wait for more favorable weather to advance further. And by the time the coming cold freeze actually arrives we may have an answer as to whether the Russians intend to engage in major urban combat in Kherson city, or abandon it along with a lot of equipment and flee to the other side of the river.

  15. Whodunnit

    November 5, 2022 at 10:12 am

    Would you have also have advocated that the Ukrainians simply let Putin take however much land he desires as an alternative ? There’s a lot of underlying Russian bias in your articles which I find fairly disturbing considering the atrocities that have already been carried out and also probably still being carried out against Ukrainian civilians. Give him more land and more opportunities? I think not.

  16. Jim

    November 5, 2022 at 10:23 am

    It’s sad so many Americans want to fight to the last Ukrainian.

    • Gary Jacobs

      November 5, 2022 at 11:30 am

      Jim,

      It’s sad that you remove agency from the Ukrainians themselves. THEY want to fight for their freedom from Russian tyranny.

      Russia has violated every agreement signed with Ukraine since the fall of the USSR. Peace talks are simply not possible until Russia does a lot more losing on the battlefield. Which will likely be coming soon.

      Have a liberating day.

      • Jim

        November 5, 2022 at 12:49 pm

        Gary, you’re intellectually dishonest.

        • Gary Jacobs

          November 5, 2022 at 8:00 pm

          Jim,

          you are projecting your own failure to understand the situation again.

          • Jim

            November 6, 2022 at 10:11 am

            Gary, you’ve claimed the U. S. has sent only $20 billion to Ukraine more than once when the figure is about $65 billion.

            I saw you claim Russia caused the 2014 coup in Ukraine, when the bulk of evidence is that the U. S. helped with fomenting the coup, Nuland bragged the U. S. spent $5 billion in the run up to the coup… plus Nuland’s “‘F’… the E. U.” audio tape.

            Ukraine failed to follow through on the Minsk Agreements, and former Ukraine President Poreshenko admitted Kiev was just buying time to remilitarize, not entered into in good faith… “peace” is not part of Ukraine’s lexicon.

            You’ve claimed Zelensky has talked nuclear once… when the record is full of his nuclear talk… even Washington is uncomfortable with Zelensky’s talk, so much so that recently Zelensky had to pull his horns in a bit… (thank goodness)

            You deny you are a neoconservative or that neoconservatives have any role in Ukraine Policy when Victoria Nuland is pointman for Ukraine policy and she is definitely a neocon, in fact you imply there are no neoconservatives… in any positions of power… regarding Ukraine.

            Gary, you are a maximalist (neoconservative) on this Ukraine policy… and much of your analysis (if you can call it that) is bent to confirm & cheer on your position.

          • Gary Jacobs

            November 6, 2022 at 10:52 am

            Jim,

            You continue to use ‘neocon’ as a pejorative in an incorrect way, and you continue to peddle Putin’s talking points.

            You have completely mischaracterized the nature of what happened in 2014, Nuland’s importance, and you have misread her involvement in the situation. The phone call that of her that was recorded by Russian intel and released to the public was well after the 2014 protests had become massive. Nuland providing political guidance to the protest movement hardly qualifies as a coup. You blaming the US, Nuland, and ‘neocons’ for everything in 2014 literally makes you a tool of Russian disinformation.

            So what if the US spent $5 Billion in Ukraine? And who cares what Nuland thought of the EU? Ukraine stood to gain access to the EU’s several Trillion market. That’s why so many people came out to protest Putin’s attempted coup. On. Their. Own.

            The Ukrainians wanted the deal signed with the EU. That’s why they voted for Poroshenko. That was his political platform… and they came out in massive numbers to protest when Putin strong armed him to not sign the deal with the Eu, and instead sign with Russia.

            Russia meddled in Ukrainian affairs and scuttled 3 years of negotiations for Ukraine to join the EU because Russia wasnt going to allow Ukraine to make a decision to break free of their tyranny. It’s a simple as that, and it really isnt that hard to understand that is the real attempted coup…regardless of anything Nuland did. You are making her out to be way more important than she really was… and YOU pretending that it’s all the fault of the US, Nuland, and the ‘neocon’ boogey man says a lot more about you and your own distorted view of the situation than it does about what really happened.

      • WillLongfield

        November 6, 2022 at 1:50 am

        The unopposed Ukrainian GOVERNMENT is determined to continue the war no matter the cost in blood. After a winter of cold and hunger, with tens of thousands of young men already dead and facing a massively enlarged Russian Army, the Ukranian PEOPLE will likely decide that the four or five Russian-speaking provinces should be allowed to go their own way. Hopefully, this can be accomplished without further bloodshed.

  17. Gary Jacobs

    November 5, 2022 at 10:41 am

    More Russian actions continue to show how bad their situation is in Kherson.

    Russian looting has been so extensive as to include the art museum, solar energy systems, cell phone towers, medical supplies from the hospital – to include ambulances- , as well as fire trucks [all of which has extensive geolocated images and in some cases satellite images.

    They took so many of the fire trucks that when Ukraine launched HIMARS strikes on key locations in the last couple of days…there were no fire trucks to put out the blazes and they continued to burn.

    As well, The Russians are threatening to destroy or confiscate any boats of locals that they see. Russian occupiers in Kherson are already blowing up civilian boats, and there are plenty of geolocated images of numerous civilian boats that have been destroyed in the port of Kherson and other areas along the Dnipro.

    As the Russians relocate to the east bank of Dnipro from west, the announcement about boats can be interpreted as the Russians fearing that locals will aid the Ukrainian military in planning offensive operations on the east bank.

    Not only are they losing the west bank of the river…the Russians fear that they will quickly be chased over to east bank as well, and they are taking desperate and drastic measure to slow their inevitable losses to the Ukrainians.

    On the east bank, the Russians are now implementing a mandatory evacuation of all civilians, and Russian military are moving into the vacant civilian homes. In one fell swoop the Russians are ethnically cleansing the actual residents, and trying to provide their troops with warmer accommodations for the winter. This is of course a war crime, but considering the extensive documentation of Russian torture chambers, mass graves, and rape as a weapon… no one but Daniel Davis should be suprised by this. In the end, this will not stop the Russians from losing. It’s only a matter time, and the will to see it through, doom and gloom merchants like Davis notwithstanding.

    • WillLongfield

      November 6, 2022 at 4:04 pm

      All the things that you describe (sunken boats, stolen fire-trucks, mass graves, mass rapes etc.) are stories that have been served up to you by highly partisan media with an agenda. You should be a little more discerning and understand that you are possibly being misled.

      • Gary Jacobs

        November 6, 2022 at 7:36 pm

        WillLongfield,

        Meh, sorry to burst you partisan bubble but there is plenty of geolocated footage to prove what Russia has been doing with this round of naked imperialist aggression. And Ukraine and its partner nations were well prepared with teams of forensic experts to immediately go in to liberated areas and document Russia’s crimes.

        Russia has a centuries long history of such behavior…and my family was a victim of it.

        If you’d like a lesson in Russian history on the subject of rape as a weapon, I recommend:

        Gendered Violence: Jewish Women in the Pogroms of 1917 to 1921
        by Irina Astashkevich
        Series: Jews of Russia & Eastern Europe and Their Legacy

        In this time period [1917-1921], there were “over a thousand pogroms in about five hundred localities.” Astashkevich considers this a “genocide” and the frequent, systematic use of rape as a weapon may be considered “genocidal rape.” Lives—as well as minds—were lost, entire communities were erased, some women attempted suicide, some succeeded, others stopped menstruating, some had to be psychiatrically hospitalized, most were afraid to go out forever afterwards. Such “violent riots” were scripted and “aimed to ensure social death along with the physical extermination … many shtetls were destroyed never to be rebuilt.”

        The Pale of Settlement imposed on Jews by Catherine the-not-so-great lasted hundreds of years. Ukraine was a part of that confined space. And this snapshot of time is a microcosm of how the Russian empire treated its Jewish subjects…and others it sought to dominate.

        Putin is quite fond of waxing nostalgic about Russian Imperialist rulers as such. He fancies himself one of them…and now you know what that actually means. The Ukrainians are again Russia’s victims as they have been so many other times in the past.

        Bottom line: Far from me being the one impacted by partisan media, it’s actually you [like so many others on this forum] that are projecting your own failings onto others.

    • Serhio

      November 6, 2022 at 11:53 pm

      Do you call the removal of civilians from the zone of future hostilities a war crime? Destroying the means of crossing that the Ukrainian military can use (if they can reach the river) is a reasonable precaution. More than a month ago, it was announced that all boats belonging to civilians should be moved to the other shore, and those that remain will be destroyed. Everything suggests that the battle near Kherson will not be an easy walk for NATO mercenaries and Ukrainian troops. You still make unreliable predictions based not on facts but on Western propaganda and your own inflated ego. On October 23, you wrote that in three weeks Ukrainian troops would launch an offensive on Kherson and the Russians would be driven back by a powerful blow. Two weeks have passed and there are no prerequisites for the fulfillment of your forecasts yet. All the concentrations of troops near Kherson that were able to gather in Ukraine were destroyed with the help of aircraft and missiles. Attempts to break through the Russian defenses are doomed to failure without massive air support, which Ukraine has almost no left. The Russians have prepared powerful fortifications since September and mined all approaches to them. A frontal attack on these fortifications will only add Ukrainian corpses. If the Ukrainians fail to undermine the dam in Novaya Kakhovka and flood Kherson, the Russians will not leave this city.

      I have already heard propaganda about Ukrainians raped in all holes, their dogs, parrots and sheep, as well as stolen toasters, fire trucks and communication towers. This may be a common lie during the war. Goebbels applauds you from his grave.

  18. 403Forbidden

    November 5, 2022 at 10:49 am

    Yes, there’s only one way to end the proxy war, only one outcome for the fighting sides.

    But Biden won’t benefit from it. That’s for sure.

    After the G20 summit ends on Nov 16 2022, gloves are off as the European winter starts in December or right after the summit.

    Wham, blam, ka-boom !

    A mushroom cloud appears over Kyiv and Kyiv, and zekenskiyy is history.

    Biden will bang his balls, flap his sardine up and down, with Jill looking on, while big guy utter cusses at Putin in sync with his banging and flapping. Nothing more. The real loser in the Ukraine war. The real outcome. The real end.

  19. Paddy Manning

    November 5, 2022 at 11:50 am

    Utter nonsense, dishonesty and bad strategy masquerading as compassion.
    Ukraine can’t be forced to accept a peace that Davis and the Russians want, such a peace would little more than a temporary cessation of main army activity and never peace while guerilla warfare and Russian rearnment continued.
    Russia has been defeated in all its aims in this war, it only remains the slow (not so slow) job of scraping their bleeding, dying, criminal third world army off the territory.
    Putin thrives by concession, backs down when opposed. He and Russia are impaled on the thorny spike of his own making here and the siren voices urging “peace” are no different from those who urged negotiations with Hitler. This is the opportunity to guarantee cheap security in Europe and remove a distracting Chinese ally before the Sino US war that’s coming.
    Kherson will fall to the brave Ukranians. The Russian conscripts will learn that surrendering beats dying, eventually. Putin will fall either before or after Lushenko (same week, I think) and not alone will Ukraine be free but Russia with it’s vast ignorance, brutality and stupidity will be contained for two generations at least.
    And as for the angry Ruski Bots posting nonsense here, there’s going to be no good news for you fools. It’s blood and death all the way now lads.
    Where BTW is Davis claim that the Russians could still take Kiev or has that been memory holed in favour of this cowardly, lousy advice?

  20. Jack Hughes

    November 5, 2022 at 11:54 am

    Davis seems be putting a great deal of faith in the newly mobilised units with their outdated equipment and lack of cold weather gear.

  21. Fred Adams

    November 5, 2022 at 1:07 pm

    Ukraine cannot afford “peaceful coexistence”, as that idea is a Russian lie. Negotiation will result in a Russian takeover. Ukrainians will then be slaughtered and moved to Siberia without tools or shelter. Death is the alternative to winning.

  22. Joe Dokes

    November 5, 2022 at 2:00 pm

    The article’s implication is that, as a negotiated settlement is inevitable, it should be accomplished as soon as possible to avoid further conflict.

    Missing from this is that each side will continue the conflict to improve its negotiating position. Furthermore, Russia’s opening position has never changed: “What’s ours is ours, what’s yours is negotiable.”

    Davis has consistently maintained that the “fundamentals of war” favor Russia, but (IMHO) he overrates mass while underrating morale, training and leadership. It’s too early to tell which side will develop a winning negotiating position, but it appears equally too early to accept Russian tyranny in exchange for a bad faith promise of no further incursions.

  23. Rick

    November 5, 2022 at 3:15 pm

    If you want a decent assessment of the war and it’s direction read the Daily Kos and ignore this military failure.

  24. Johhny Ray

    November 5, 2022 at 3:50 pm

    Fundamentals? Fundamentally Russia is at war with much of the western first world and it’s vast resources.

    Considering the vast losses on both sides I think it would be fair to say neither side has much to win anymore.

    More heavy losses for both are inevitable.

    The war ends when Putin is removed from power and his replacement negotiates a peace without the overhead of Putin’s misguided egomania to be remembered as the Czar that conquered Ukraine and brought it back to the Russian Empire.

  25. Walker

    November 5, 2022 at 4:39 pm

    At this point, Davis needs to really stop using the words “my assessment”. Because he really isn’t assessing anything.

    Here is a real assessment.
    1.) Ukraine can not allow Russia to just take land from it. This is an existential fight. We all know that Putin and by extension Russia wants all of Ukraine. Any negotiated settlement is just a delayed fight.
    2.) Putin can not lose in Ukraine, his position in Russia is based on being a strong leader and he has paid for it with a lot of Russian lives.

    For any negotiation, both sides need something the other can give. Ukraine might be able to give up some land if it could be assured that Russia will leave Ukraine alone after. Putin will not accept Ukraine to be completely independent. So this assurance can not be made. Ukrainians are fighting for their independence. Putin just can not be trusted with any negotiations. He is a conniving lying thief who will be back to take more. In otherwords Putin can not offer Ukraine any agreement that Ukraine can trust.

    War is the continuation of politics through other means. Or the breakdown of negotiations. How ever you want to look at it, there must be a fundamental change caused by the war that allows negotiations.

    So, no negotiations are possible, end of story. Only thing left is a war that continues until one side is totally tired out. What does this look like?

    For Ukraine this looks like when the rest of the world gets tired of supporting it with weapons. Davis knows this, that is why he and all his Russian friends on here talk of “negotiations”. It is a ruse to get us to stop supporting Ukraine.

    For Russia, the end is the end of Putin. At a minimum. After that it is up to his replacement. Putin knows he can’t lose and continue to be the Czar of Russia. So he will throw as many bodies as he can at it. Prolonged war that he can’t win is better than admitting loss. For the Russian people, loss is much earlier. Russia has already lost more soldiers than the US in Vietnam. While the IS lost over 50,000 troops of the over 2 million that went there. Russia has lost over 75,000 of the 500,000 sent. It has already lost the war and Devi stated it’s population. It has just been so quick many Russians do t realize it yet. Like a hand cut off, Russia doesn’t even notice it is gone yet.it will take some time for them to come to terms with the loss. But Russia has already lost. We need to just continue to support Ukraine so it doesn’t lose too.

    Davis is right about only one thing, it is going to last longer and a lot more soldiers will die on both sides. But unfortunately, no negotiation can stop this.

  26. Joseph

    November 5, 2022 at 5:09 pm

    Russia negotiating with NATO is not going to happen. It’s a fight to the finish and the finish line is Beijing.

  27. GhostTomahawk

    November 5, 2022 at 5:14 pm

    The winners of this war will be the same winners since WW1. THE BANKS AND MILITARY INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX.

    PERIOD.

    Ukraine will have no men to carry on their existence nor be able to rebuild without the west turning them into an indebted client state.

    Russia will have depleted their national defense ability whilst exposing their abilities on the world stage.

  28. Lurker

    November 5, 2022 at 6:28 pm

    Ukraine generals believe another month or two to relieve Kherson. If we wait until then, we will know more about the direction of this war.
    Most Russians do not want war and most Ukrainians want to protect their country. So who will blink first?
    Does negotiating with Russia bring long peace or just a pause so Russia can attack again? Or attack another country? Just like Hitler with Poland, at what time will the world say enough is enough?
    These are the questions that need to be answered before negotiations start.

  29. Jay

    November 5, 2022 at 10:49 pm

    Daniel Davis repeats the Kremlin talking points verbatim.

  30. CRS, DrPH

    November 5, 2022 at 11:12 pm

    The war will end in the time-honored Soviet KGB manner….with a 9×18 9mm Makarov bullet behind Putin’s ear.

    They can send the invoice and casing to his daughter.

  31. June

    November 6, 2022 at 1:12 am

    Read his other articles. Since the analysis of Mr Daniel Davis has been consistently wrong this year, the final outcome will be most likely opposite of what he said (hint: Ukraine will regain Crimea). Ukraine can win this war but, unfortunately, cannot win fast. When Russia is fed up with this war, this war will end. Russian media coverage already shows the sign. I think Ukraine will regain Crimea by the end of 2023. Once the winter is over, oil and gas demand will decrease and the Russian economy will collapse next year. Ukraine can start negotiations after the collapse of the Russian economy and the recovery of Crimea.

  32. June

    November 6, 2022 at 1:50 am

    Mr Daniel Davis does not seem to understand the situation. Permanently ending the war is the best interest for both Ukraine and Russia. However, if Ukraine cannot defeat Russia, the war will start again later. On the other hand, if Russia is completely defeated, the Russians would be fed up with the war and the war will be extremely unpopular in the future. So, the only way to end the war is to defeat Russia. Unlike Ukraine, many Russians do not want to fight and, thus, this is the best solution for Russians, too.

  33. June

    November 6, 2022 at 1:20 am

    The West has promised various weapons but they have not been delivered yet. I believe most of them will be delivered by the end of this year and Ukraine might get tanks and F-16 next year. So, to minimize the sacrifice, Ukraine should wait for the best time (next spring) to attack the Russian army. On the other hand, the Russian army is losing capability such as long-range missiles and uses Iranian flying lawn mowers and tanks from the 1960s. Russian bloggers also noted this trend and they are pessimistic about winning the war. So, the time is on Ukraine’s side.

  34. Kelvin Clarke

    November 6, 2022 at 1:47 am

    Daniel Davis keeps pouring out this rubbish. Russian propaganda pretending to be analysis.
    There is no negotiated settlement that is currently possible which in any way represents other than a massive victory for Putin and Imperialist Russia.
    Whereas Russia’s Army is gutted and plugging its gaping holes with incompetent civilians.
    The attainment of battlefield victory for Ukraine is the only outcome that President Zelensky, the Ukrainian people, the nations of Eastern Europe, and their allies in the Western World can strategically accept.
    Bad luck for the Russians that are being herded into the killing zone with little hope of survival.
    For the Ukrainians have one single objective.

  35. Christophe

    November 6, 2022 at 3:06 am

    Negociation, really?
    Putin has violated all former treaties and agreements. The list of war crimes violating laws of war that Russia committed is neverending and appalling. Putin is even the first leader to turn nuclear weapons into an offensive tool in the framework of a war of aggression. This is the guy that Daniel Davies wants to negociate with?
    There was no negociation possible with Hitler, not only because Hitler was so evil, but also because Hitler was absolutly unreliable. The same with Putin.
    Anyone who says otherwise is stupid or a member of the Russian Fifht Column. I would just consider this ‘article’ as a more refine kind of Russian trolling.

  36. John

    November 6, 2022 at 4:04 am

    This war will go on for a while. Israel will start helping Ukraine.
    Ukraine will launch its own long range drones.
    Both sides cannot afford to loose, Russia also because it cannot allow the world to find out about its mass killings in Mariupol.
    The conflict will broaden.
    West unprepared as its economies are not switching to war production

  37. Neil Ross Hutchings

    November 6, 2022 at 9:33 am

    This morning’s WP article confirms Mr. Davis’ premise that the only way this conflict will end is through negotiation. The U.S. seems to be attempting to bolster financial support for the rebuilding of Ukraine prior to the G20 summit. Interesting that it was Washington that initially persuaded (bribed) Zelensky to take a harder line on negotiations after the Blinken visit. The West’s weapons well has indeed run dry and public support appears to be waning in Europe and the States. A shameful waste of human lives and infrastructure, all to benefit a weak administration and U.S. industry. The U.S. needed thousands of bomber mission to destroy Germany’s industrial base in WWIi, this time it was done without any bombers and likely only a few well placed explosives. Shameful, yet impressive geopoliticing.

    • Goran

      November 6, 2022 at 3:36 pm

      “This morning’s WP article confirms Mr. Davis’ premise that the only way this conflict will end is through negotiation”

      His idea of negotiation is Putin handing a list of demands to guys in Kyiv and them acquiescing. The reasoning behind it was that Russian military will pummel Ukrainians into the mud if they don’t. Turns out, the military Davis was hyping up, is not all that capable and whatever demands Putin had, will have to be significantly scaled back. I fail to see how that proves Davis was right. If anything, it proves how wrong he was. Let’s wait six months and see what gets agreed on, you’ll see that whatever that agreement looks like, will be a far cry from what Ukrainians would have gotten in any agreement made back in March when Davis started having his tantrums about the need for Ukrainians to surrender.

  38. Jai

    November 6, 2022 at 3:04 pm

    We will soon see whether Russian soldiers fight to the bitter end to hold Kherson, as Ukrainians did in Mariupol.

    They assuredly will not, and that tells you all you need to know about the “one way” this war will end.

  39. JBone

    November 6, 2022 at 7:07 pm

    The war is an existential threat to Ukraine, but not to Russia. Ukraine has every right to fight to expel the invaders. Good for the West arming Ukraine so they can defend themselves. Russia shouldn’t complain because they did the same (or more) to help North Vietnam. Russia’s version of negotiation is to demand capitulation, so why would Ukraine negotiate?

  40. Serhio

    November 6, 2022 at 11:23 pm

    There are no prerequisites for negotiations, at the moment. Who will talk and negotiate? Russians with Ukrainians? No. The Russians will negotiate with the Americans. Ukrainians will simply be confronted with the fact. For the West, Ukraine is becoming a big and heavy suitcase without a handle. It’s hard to carry and it’s a pity to leave. Now Ukrainians are being driven to the slaughter and there will be no mercy from their own superiors, from small and medium-sized Fuhrers from the European Union and Britain, or from the Washington collective Reichsfuhrer.

    However, by the spring of 2023, the situation will change dramatically. A new influx of refugees from Ukraine to Europe is expected in winter. In Ukraine, the winter of 2022-2023 will be extremely uncomfortable and millions of people will move to Europe. This will not add biblical meekness to the Europeans, who already blame refugees from Ukraine for many of their troubles. In France, Germany, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Italy and other countries, thousands of rallies are already taking place against the supply of weapons to Kiev and for making peace with Russia. There will only be more of them. Economic problems, the change of governments and parliaments in Europe and the United States and the development of the situation around Taiwan will force the West to greatly reduce the supply of weapons to Ukraine. There is almost no production of weapons left in Ukraine. Therefore, only big optimists can talk about the victory (or about improving the negotiating positions) of Ukraine.

    At the same time, for Putin, the suspension of the conflict on any conditions (except for the surrender of the current government of Ukraine) means that after a while the West will supply more weapons to Ukraine and train new soldiers. After that, the conflict will continue with renewed vigor. So he will not negotiate on such terms. He will finish off Ukraine, no matter what it costs. If NATO does not send its troops to Ukraine, then this is quite a feasible task for the Russians.

    But if NATO enters Ukraine, then options are possible. Everyone is afraid of Putin’s nuclear strike. But no one is talking about a scarier option. These are strikes on underground gas storage facilities with hypersonic “Dagger” missiles. The coordinates of all the repositories are known. These are too fat goals. We saw the capabilities of this type of missiles when (for the first time in combat conditions, and not in exercises) An underground warehouse of missiles and aviation ammunition in the village of Delyatin, Ivano-Frankivsk region, was hit. It was a huge underground complex that was built specifically to withstand the impact of a nuclear bomb or missile. Several multi-meter layers of reinforced concrete could not resist this rocket. A gas explosion in gas storage facilities will kill many people and leave the whole of Europe and the USA without energy for many years to come. Even if NATO is able to defeat Russia later, the price will be very high.

  41. Neil Ross Hutchings

    November 7, 2022 at 5:59 am

    I suspect Putin will be willing to give up Kherson proper without a huge battle for the security of the left bank of the Dneiper in order to protect his flank, but I am not all that knowledgeable about battlefield strategy. I will leave that analysis for the military experts.

    Putin likely is willing to give up a lot of territory for a secure water supply for Crimea. I am also not an expert in negotiations, but it seems that one should not enter into them with firm preconceived outcomes. Six months does seem like a realistic timeline for them if they were to start now. We will see.

  42. Univ of Saigon 68

    November 7, 2022 at 8:23 am

    On any given day I can go to several military-related sites and find articles offering perfectly reasonable reasons why Russia will win, and then find another article with equally well thought out reasons stating the exact opposite.

    At this point, I have absolutely no idea who is correct.

  43. Simon Beerstecher

    November 7, 2022 at 10:04 am

    Negotiation:

    Putin leaves all but Donbass and has a 100 year agreement (like Hong Kong)to use Sevastopol.Putin pays a tax to Ukraine from the lifting of reinstated trade , paid by the various countries trading with Russia…a sort of vat on Russian exports.

  44. Gary Jacobs

    November 7, 2022 at 10:56 am

    Serhio,

    Your Putinista talking points are worn thin here. We have already been through the updated timeline on the next phase of Ukraine’s advance in Kherson. Why pretend that needs to happen again? I have said repeatedly that rain/mud season came 3 weeks early this year…and that the liberation of Kherson will likely happen by the end of the year. The freezing of the mud as well as some streams will allow for maneuver warfare to begin again. Those are some pretty basic facts. But a lot depends on whether or not the Russians intend to engage in urban combat for an extended period, or if it will just be a fighting retreat to the other side of the river.

    But then again you are the guy who thinks that the difference between 152mm Artillery and 155mm artillery is all about those 3mm. That’s the diameter… in reality NATO 155mm artillery can be up to 300mm longer with significantly greater destructive power than Russian 152mm shells.

    As well, your Putnista talking points about the Kerch Bridge are collapsing almost as hard as that blown section of the bridge itself.

    Russian Minister of Transportation Savelev is on camera Oct. 31 saying that 250 light cars on average cross the bridge per hour. He implies No trucks allowed on the bridge. Heavy cargo is being sent via occupied land corridor from Rostov oblast [7.5k trucks since Oct 8]. And in over a month only 16 “light trains” have crossed on the rail portion of the bridge. Full repairs will be complete by July.

    250 cars an hour = FOUR a minute, one every 15 seconds. That means they’re only letting one car slowly cross the damaged span at a time.

    The lack of heavy train capability on the bridge makes the situation for Russia’s military very bad. The reality of the dire supply situation the bombing of the Kerch Bridge has created led the Russians to make moves on the battlefield that have cost hundreds of Russian lives in one small area in less than a week.

    One reason the Russians are trying so hard in the Pavlivka area is that they are likely trying to create buffer and establish a Melitopol Donetsk railway connection. The Russians would need to create a buffer zone and push away the Ukrainians from the railroad in the Volnovakha area. That’s likely an exercise in futility considering the range of HIMARS, but hey, if the Russians want to impale themselves over such a thing…great.

    There are plenty of posts from Russian mil-blogger Telegram channels about heavy losses from Russia’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade in Pavlivka.

    Sladkov says that its members are urging the governor of Primorye to contact the Russian MoD because of their high pointless losses. They say they and the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade were sent on an offensive in Pavlivka so General M [Mordvichev, Perhaps?] and his colleague could look good to Gerasimov and receive the Hero of Russia.

    “The grandiose claims about successful operations by Russians in Pavlivka and Uhledar direction have changed for “urgent appeals to the higher-ups to do something about it”, as Sladkov cries about it in his latest post.

    Same with WarGonzo summarising the situation and saying that “everything is bad” in Pavlivka.

    As I mention, They themselves state that they took hundreds of losses over 4 days…and there are geolocated videos all over the web to corroborate what Russia’s own troops are saying about their losses.

    As for Russia’s Kherson retreat. In one breath you are basically claiming that Russia isnt losing Kherson [at best, not as fast as I thought], and the next you are justifying ethnic cleansing so Russian troops can prepare the next line of defense as they retreat. Nice “logic” you have there.

    Spoiler alert, they are going to lose the east bank of Dnipro also. It’s only a matter of time, and how badly.

    Here’s a new plan: end the unprovoked invasion, withdraw all Russian troops to the 1994 borders Russia agreed to, and leave Ukraine alone. Then the war will be over and you can worry about how Russia will rebuild from its economic and military ruin that Putin’s naked aggression in Ukraine has brought upon Russia.

    Have a liberating day.

  45. mawendt

    November 7, 2022 at 11:18 am

    LTC Davis is clueless. Which is an example of some of the leadership in the US military today.

    “I wrote last Spring that the combat fundamentals of war favored Russia over Ukraine, despite the fact they had recently been driven out of Kyiv and Kharkiv. Nothing in the intervening months have altered the strategic balance”… except a ton of Western weapons that have wreaked catastrophic casualties on an increasingly desperate Russian invader, who would rather run than fight, and a consistent string of tactical victories have built up to strategic victories. But, hey – no strategic balance is altered, Russia has tricked them Ukrainians right to where Russia wants them. After all, Russia has only lost about 8% of it’s ground forces so far… it could easily through in another 92% before it declares victory for Mother Russia.

    Davis quotes Ukrainian officials whose claims didn’t come to pass…. but neglects to quote far more Russia officials that forecasted victory. Meh.

    But to correct LTC Davis: the conflict could end several ways. It could end if Russia magically gets a leader and some kind of motivation in its troops to win [very unlikely]; it could end if Ukraine makes some incredibly bad decisions [very unlikely]; it could end if the West withdraws all its support from Ukraine [very unlikely]; it could end if Russia uses Nuclear/Chemical/Biologicals or any combo on Ukraine [not unlikely, but implausible]; or, MOST LIKELY, the conflict continues to bleed Russia until the ruling Russian government is cast down by increasingly annoyed civilians, and the new Russian government uses the old as an excuse to withdraw to 2004 international borders, with agreements and considerations granted to Ukraine’s defense.

    This is a guy that doesn’t understand war-gaming Red Team.

    1945 can do better. Are we being trolled…?

  46. Geoman

    November 7, 2022 at 1:24 pm

    Last I checked, Russia is losing 20 APCs, 500 soldiers, and a dozen tanks…per day. That is an entire battalion. That is 3,500 soldiers per week, 16,000 per month. They have lost 75,930 soldiers so far, and double that number wounded. They have lost 2,765 tanks, 5,611 AFVs. Dozens of planes and helicopters. None of this can be replaced. The majority of the men and equipment destroyed has been their elite units.

    Russia has lost more men and equipment than the entire armies of England and France. They are losing men and equipment at a rate of 5:1 to the Ukrainians. Ukraine has captured more tanks than they have lost, making Russia their number one arms supplier.

    Russia has already lost the equivalent of their entire invading force. They are sending to the front untrained men without equipment, and tanks designed in the 1940s.

    Ukraine expected to take Kherson in September, then realized, why? At the rate they are killing Russians, and destroying their equipment, in a month or two there will be no Russian army left in Kherson. In a few months there won’t be a Russian army in the rest of Ukraine either. By next summer, Russia will have 250,000 dead and another 750,000 wounded. A million men. And more than a million men have fled the country to avoid the draft. Guess who fled? the best, brightest, most motivated, and most highly trained.

    Russia is on the ropes and can’t keep this up. In fact, the death and destruction rates are increasing, as poorer trained troops and worse equipment are put into action by Russia. So, what I just said is an underestimate.

    This idea that now is the time to “negotiate” is idiotic. Ukraine is winning. There is very little Russian can do to prevent this from happening. Thye can only negotiate their surrender. I’d suggest sooner rather than later.

  47. Dan Farrand

    November 7, 2022 at 2:44 pm

    @Dan Mullock

    “This is unfortunately truly a battle between good and evil. The horrible, deliberately genocidal behavior of the Russians”

    You live in a Marvel Comic book universe.

    If you imagine that the Ukrainian Narco State backed by the likes of V. Nuland is what is good, then you are capable of being persuaded of almost anything. The perfect “Good American”.

    Wake up. The US has no interests in Ukraine. We have used Ukraine as proxy for attacking our invented enemy Russia. As a result we have needlessly created a real enemy. Our continued efforts are fashioning a Eurasian power that will ultimately be an actual threat to American interests.

    The next thing you hear about – in a year or to – is Germany aligning with China and Russia telling America to get out of Europe.

  48. Bård Vestgård

    November 7, 2022 at 3:51 pm

    Check your logic against the outcome of the Vietnam war. The US eventually pulled out completely, not because of being militarily inferior but because it became politically impossible to maintain the «campaign».

  49. Bård Vestgård

    November 7, 2022 at 4:07 pm

    … and adding to my previous comment: How are you going to negotiate an agreement with the russians? That agreement would carry the same value as any of the agreements made with Nazi Germany. The russian regime does not understand any other language than that of force. Any agreement made under the current status quo will lead directly to an ever continuing conflict. I hope that Europe realizes this and steps up its support to Ukraine, not the opposite. Because it should not be the task of USA to save Europe from itself for the third time!

  50. CRS, DrPH

    November 7, 2022 at 6:19 pm

    According to Forbes: “Russian sources claim at least 63 of the 155th GNIB’s troopers died in four days. That apparently is more than perished in the worst fighting in Chechnya more than 20 years ago.

    Another 240 or so marines from the 155th and 40th Brigades were killed, wounded or went missing, Russian sources claimed. The same sources reported the two brigades lost half of their equipment—potentially scores of T-80 tanks and BMP and BTR fighting vehicles—in the dead-end attacks on Pavlivka.”

    I get no real pleasure from the slaughter of professional soldiers, even from an enemy country. May Putin earn his bullet sooner rather than later.

  51. Serhio

    November 7, 2022 at 10:10 pm

    Gary Jacobs

    “We have already been through the updated timeline on the next phase of Ukraine’s advance in Kherson. Why pretend that needs to happen again? I have said repeatedly that rain/mud season came 3 weeks early this year…and that the liberation of Kherson will likely happen by the end of the year.”

    I have already written several times that making predictions about the war is not your way. You don’t know how to do it, but that doesn’t stop you. First, you give a forecast that in three weeks fierce battles will begin around Kherson. Then suddenly it turns out that the weather spoils your forecast. The rains began in autumn. Very strange. There has never been such a thing. Well okay. Then Kherson will definitely fall by Christmas. Well, or by spring. But it’s definitely going to fall on Thanksgiving. Maybe. But when I suggested that you confirm your words with your wallet, you chose to remain silent. You’re an empty talker.

    “There are plenty of posts from Russian mil-blogger Telegram channels about heavy losses from Russia’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade in Pavlivka.”

    I am constantly trying to convey to you the idea that war is not the same as a kindergarten matinee. People are being killed there. Sometimes there are a lot of people. I never said that this war would be an easy walk for the Russians. However, the attack on Pavlovka threatened Ugledar and the Ukrainians had to urgently withdraw troops from other areas and transfer them towards Ugledar. At the same time, part of the reinforcements was destroyed by Russian aircraft during the movement. At the same time, precious fuel for trains was spent. At the same time, other sections of the front were weakened. And there will be further strikes in these weakened areas, and troops will have to be transferred there again. The initiative began to pass to the Russians. The Russians are attacking and the Ukrainians are reacting to their actions. You can’t win the war that way. When several people throw a ball to each other, and the dog is constantly running after the ball, the result will be a very tired dog.

    “As for Russia’s Kherson retreat. In one breath you are basically claiming that Russia isnt losing Kherson [at best, not as fast as I thought], and the next you are justifying ethnic cleansing so Russian troops can prepare the next line of defense as they retreat. Nice “logic” you have there.”

    You are a demagogue who uses words for propaganda. There is no ethnic cleansing in these territories. Ethnic cleansing, that’s if the Russians cut the throats of all the locals. And the evacuation of civilians from places where fierce battles are coming is an act of humanity. Moreover, all displaced residents of Kherson will be provided with free housing in the regions where they choose.
    I have never claimed that the Russians will never retreat from Kherson. I claim that there will be a very big battle for Kherson. If Ukrainians can reach Kherson, then there will be fierce battles in the city like Stalingrad. The Russians are pulling heavy TOS-1A “Solntsepek” flamethrowers to Kherson. This is a hellish weapon, it affects a large area and the temperature inside the explosion reaches 3000 degrees Celsius and no shelters save. One of the reasons for the evacuation of civilians is precisely that the Russians are going to actively use these systems against the advancing Ukrainian troops. If there were civilians left, it would be difficult to use such weapons. And when there is only an enemy ahead, there is no such problem.

  52. Tom arganin

    November 7, 2022 at 11:01 pm

    Russia wins. Keeps territory and Crimea. Russia doesn’t have to negotiate anything.

    Over a quarter of the Ukrainian population are now refugees and growing. Expect another 5 million this winter. The key is Germany and Germans are irate. The poplaion will literally riot when ‘millions’ more refugees enter the country to join the over million already in Germany. Putin knows exactly what he is doing in forcing the hand of the German government.

    Unspoken in the media because it’s politically incorrect. Germans don’t like Russians and they don’t like Ukrainians. Despite the spin of the EU and NATO, Germsn people want nothing to do with this conflict.

  53. Neil Ross Hutchings

    November 8, 2022 at 11:55 am

    Agreed.

    Regarding this morning’s first announcements on the slow fragile road to a negotiated settlement of the conflict, I remind everyone that the International Court of Justice has stated that “territorial integrity is not violated as far as international law is concerned by declarations of independence in themselves.”

    Ukraine won’t be getting Crimea and much of the Donbas back. This war has only benefited U.S. oil and gas producers, heavy industry and the military industrial complex. What a waste of human life, but maybe it has silenced the hardliners in Kyiv.

  54. Gary Jacobs

    November 8, 2022 at 12:02 pm

    Serhio,

    It seems my comment from earlier today got lost when 1945 moved this article down their homepage. They really need to work out the kinks in the comment module asap.

    Let’s try that again.

    You are so desperate to cling to timelines as if that means I am somehow wrong about everything. I’m not. Of course I almost always include caveats for things like weather. As well, the devil does deserve his due…and Putin’s introduction of ‘blocking units’ to kill his Russian troops should they surrender or retreat too soon also delayed the defeat of the Russians in Kherson. And has had some effect in the Svatove area.

    btw, I have also repeatedly stated that a lot of the timeline depends on whether the Russians decide to engage in major urban combat, or conduct a fighting retreat as they move out more rapidly.

    You claim that “there will be fierce battles in the city like Stalingrad”… Yes, that’s one possible outcome, but the Russians are sending mixed signals as to what their intentions are. They have looted so much from Kherson [like the petty gangsters they are] that the city itself is not functioning as much of a city anymore, and that could mean they intend to leave it all together soon. The Ukrainians themselves are now talking about these mixed signals and warning that the Russians may be setting a trap for them by acting as if they are leaving the city but instead intend a mass casualty event there, or a Stalingrad like long duration urban combat.

    I just have to laugh again about you clinging to the difference of a few weeks in the outcome of something like the Russian defeat in Kherson, which you then agree will be the outcome… or it could turn into ‘Stalingrad’. The irony of you using that analogy is that the invading Russians are analogous to the Nazis in this situation [in every way mind you]. On 2 February 1943, the Nazi 6th Army, having exhausted their ammo and food, finally capitulated after five months of fighting, making it the first of Hitler’s field armies to surrender during World War II.
    If the Russians do decide to stay and fight in Kherson and try to create a “Stalingrad”, they will be the ones without resupply, and the Ukrainians will likely surround the city and put them into a ‘cauldron’ to squeeze them. I doubt it lasts 5 months, but it could take a bit. Meanwhile, having penned the Russians into the city, The Ukrainians have the option of using their shorter internal lines of transport to send much of their offensive maneuver forces through Dnipropetrovsk over to Zaporizhia. From there they head south to Melitopol and Tokmak while sending units west and various stages to squeeze the Russian troops on the east bank of the Dnipro in Kherson…and come in behind the defenses they are building facing west.
    That Stalingrad strategy wont be working out well for you on any level.

    With all that said…if you still think I actually care about your desperate attempt to distort my estimated timeline for the Ukrainians taking back Kherson…you are sorely mistaken.

    Btw, I “love” how you tried to solely focus on the dead Russians in Pavlika, and completely ignored their desperate attempts to try and establish another railway connection in the wake of the Kerch Bridge bombing. The repair of which you were completely wrong about. But that appears to be your MO: pretend you know something based on spoon fed Russian disinformation, and then when you get proven wrong, you completely ignore it.

    Oh ya, I also love how you ignored my pointing out how wrong you were about the difference between The 152mm vs. 155mm in the same post. Up to 300mm longer for the 155mm shells makes them far more destructive than the Russian 152mm.

    Face it, the Russians are losing. Badly. All they have left are terrorist tactics to fire missiles at civilians.

    The biggest thing that worries me at this point is the potential for Russia to purchase Iranian ballistic missiles and then fire at Ukrainian cities like the terrorist thugs they are. Biden should be telling Putin that if Russia uses them against Ukraine, he will give Ukraine Patriot ballistic missile defenses, as well as ATACMs short range ballistic missiles. and At that point I could likely be convinced to be in favor of sending the new road mobile truck launched version of the Tomahawk cruise missile. At close to 1000mile range with pinpoint accuracy, the Ukrainians could be just about anywhere in their west and strike at Russian Imperialist Occupation forces anywhere in Ukraine. Tomahawk also has an anti ship version that should be used to sink any Russian Navy ship remaining in Crimea.

    And if the Russians didnt stop, the Ukrainians should be authorized to strike bases, fuel and logistics centers in parts of Russia and Belarus. Especially those where the missiles are being launched from.

    I am quite tired of Biden forcing the Ukrainians to fight with one arm tied behind their back. Many other American are also, and I think after today’s election is over, there will be a chance to have a bi-partisan consensus for winning to emerge as the campaigning turns to back to governing.

    Have a liberating day.

  55. CJ Phaedrus

    November 8, 2022 at 12:33 pm

    The fact that this former Lt Col thinks the Russian conscripts being mobilized are nothing more than under equipped, under trained, un armed canon fodder explains a lot how far the US military has fallen in recent years.

  56. H.R. Holm

    November 8, 2022 at 8:16 pm

    No, hopefully after election day there will be enough true traditional Republicans elected to help put a fiscal stop to fueling this insane and seemingly no-end-in-sight forever(?) war. (Hopefully, but not necessarily, however.) We are trillions in debt, the U.S. *does not have the money* to endlessly fund this conflict and continue to let the U.S. Treasury operate as a bottomless piggy bank for Zelensky and his underlings. Even with all the dollar-devaluing raw printing of money the Fed does at Pathetic Joe and the Democrats’ bidding. And to all you war-rooters who are forever claiming that Russia is running out of equipment, Russia is running out of troops, of this and that and the other thing, *how would and do you know*? And I mean, *know*? What dependable reporters/sources are roaming Russia to scrutinize the Russian economy’s production resources to come up with such a conclusion? The ruble has rebounded from last winter, Russia is expanding trade ties with China, India, and others, and seems largely unaffected by sanctions. Russian lands contain vast reserves of minerals and materials; there is no evidence that Russia is strangling due to sanctions. Russia has put its military first and foremost since the Germans attacked in 1941. They believe in vast reserves of weapons, etc., and have stockpiled plenty for decades, even hanging on to the ‘old stuff’ as it suits them. If they were in such dire material/manpower straits as some in the West say, they would have instigated cease-fire and armistice negociations by now. And they still have that vast nuclear arsenal to dangle around menacingly. So don’t necessarily depend on ‘the elections’ to continue the endless moneybag-shoveling of funds and equipmant eastward to Ukraine. It all depends if some sensibility finally gathers some steam to prompt any Republican majority to cast off most support for this war and return priorities to the benefit and welfare of the American people instead.

  57. Serhio

    November 8, 2022 at 9:52 pm

    Gary Jacobs

    “Many other American are also, and I think after today’s election is over, there will be a chance to have a bi-partisan consensus for winning to emerge as the campaigning turns to back to governing.”

    What kind of consensus are you talking about? Half of the country hates the other half and vice versa. If the Democrats can’t rig the results, then the Republicans will get a majority in both chambers. And then Biden will not be up to Ukraine.

  58. Serhio

    November 8, 2022 at 9:53 pm

    Gary Jacobs
    “Biden should be telling Putin that if Russia uses them against Ukraine, he will give Ukraine Patriot ballistic missile defenses, as well as ATACMs short range ballistic missiles.”

    Biden might have tried to say. But he will forget the end of the phrase while he pronounces the beginning and will definitely remember his son, who died in Iran (or Iraq? What’s the difference?). It is very correct that the United States has such a president. It symbolizes the strength of the United States. And the whole world saw the effectiveness of the Patriot system when oil plants in Saudi Arabia burned. The Patriot was protecting them. There are much fewer holes in my pasta strainer than in the Patriot.

  59. Serhio

    November 8, 2022 at 9:54 pm

    Gary Jacobs
    “Oh ya, I also love how you ignored my pointing out how wrong you were about the difference between The 152mm vs. 155mm in the same post. Up to 300mm longer for the 155mm shells makes them far more destructive than the Russian 152mm.”

    And again you pull a small piece out of a big phrase and try to prove your point. And the speech in my phrase was not about the fact that a 155mm projectile is worse than 152 mm . I didn’t argue with that. You said that the Ukrainian army has an advantage in artillery, because it uses larger-caliber shells. You gave an example of the maximum caliber that Ukraine uses. It’s a little bigger than the Russian caliber. However , you threw out the continuation of my phrase that the Russians have enough 203 mm artillery . NATO is simply not able to supply Ukraine with artillery and shells in such quantity that superiority in quality turns into superiority at the front. And in any case, a simple comparison of the weapons of the warring parties is meaningless. If we compare the weapons of the US army and the army of Vietnam, then Vietnam simply had to lose. In terms of the quality of weapons, the Americans were superior to Vietnam. Everyone knows the result.

  60. Serhio

    November 8, 2022 at 9:55 pm

    Gary Jacobs
    ” The repair of which you were completely wrong about. But that appears to be your MO: pretend you know something based on spoon fed Russian disinformation, and then when you get proven wrong, you completely ignore it.”

    When I say that freight trains are going over the bridge, I confirm my words with a video that is publicly available, which everyone can see. You use as evidence the words that someone said. In times of war, words are not something you can believe. Even if there are difficulties with the operation of the bridge, the Russians have enough ferries to transfer equipment to the Crimea.

  61. Serhio

    November 8, 2022 at 9:55 pm

    Gary Jacobs
    ” The irony of you using that analogy is that the invading Russians are analogous to the Nazis in this situation [in every way mind you]. On 2 February 1943, the Nazi 6th Army, having exhausted their ammo and food, finally capitulated after five months of fighting, making it the first of Hitler’s field armies to surrender during World War II.”

    There is no irony here.
    Again, guys with swastikas and Nazi views are coming. Once again Europe has united against the Russians. Again, an important city for defense, pressed against the river. Again, the Russians have supply problems. Again, the attackers have superior forces. Let’s hope that the outcome will be the same as 80 years ago: the complete defeat of the Nazis and their surrender.

  62. Serhio

    November 8, 2022 at 9:56 pm

    Gary Jacobs

    “You are so desperate to cling to timelines as if that means I am somehow wrong about everything. I’m not.”

    Why do I pay attention to the fact that you were wrong with the timing? Because this is a common example of your erroneous predictions. Moreover, all the tricks about the weather and possible deviations in the timing began after the Ukrainian offensive was stopped and it became clear that the Russians would not allow a rapid advance to Kherson. Earlier, you ridiculed my predictions that the Russians would launch missile and drone strikes on Ukraine’s energy and transport infrastructure in order to hinder the supply of weapons. Your argument was the propaganda nonsense of the Western press that the Russians used up all the missiles back in April and are now taking chips out of washing machines and microwaves to launch several new missiles. You laughed when I said that the Russians have their own factories for the production of the necessary electronics for their missiles and that they have a sufficient supply of missiles to return Ukraine to the caves. When my forecast turned out to be correct, you started calling these strikes “terrorism”, “strikes on civilians” and other propaganda cliches. Although in all wars, the infrastructure involved in the war is a legitimate military target. And transport and energy are used not only by civilians, but also by the military. I repeat this all the time so that other readers can see the level of your competence and perceive your messages with a fair amount of skepticism.

  63. LJG

    November 30, 2022 at 8:51 am

    The only way for this to end is total and complete defeat of Russia in the field. Any other end would only bring further wars as Russia continues to try and recover it’s Empire and expand from there.

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