Experts: Ukraine Can Win, And Diplomacy Won’t Work – Speaking over the weekend, two experts suggested that there may not be a diplomatic solution for the war in Ukraine and that Russia would likely struggle to win on the battlefield.
“No Diplomatic Solution” for Ukraine
On Sunday, a co-founder of the Nobel Peace Prize-Russian charitable organization Memorial suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not likely to agree to end the war in Ukraine via diplomatic means.
Irina Scherbakova said that she is “absolutely convinced that there is not a diplomatic solution with Putin’s regime, so long as it is still there.”
The Russian historian made the comments as she accepted an award for her work documenting crimes committed during the Stalinist era and campaigning on various rights-related issues in Russia.
Scherbakova admitted that her perception of Putin’s position on bringing the war to an end was a “tragic message” and said that the only solution to the conflict “is a military one.”
Scherbakova also suggested that life for Ukrainians will not return to normal once the war ends, and argued the only way Russia would concede is if Ukraine believes it has won the war and can set terms.
If Scherbakova is right, intelligence officials believe that Ukraine could be on track to win.
Intelligence Official Says Russia’s War Is Stalling in Ukraine
Speaking on Saturday at the Reagan National defense Forum in Simi Valley, California, the head of U.S. intelligence offered some optimism for Ukrainian forces.
Avril Haines suggested that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is now running at a “reduced tempo” and argued that Ukrainian forces have an advantage over the winter months.
Haines, who previously speculated that Putin’s advisers were not giving him a full and clear picture of Russian losses on the battlefield, also said that it remains unclear just how much the Russian president knows and suggested Russian troops may not be prepared to fight through the winter.
The U.S. official said that she and her team are seeing Russian forces struggling to make gains and suggested that the Kremlin may not be able to resupply troops in time for a new Ukrainian counter-offensive.
“But we actually have a fair amount of skepticism as to whether or not the Russians will be in fact prepared to do that,” Haines said about resupplying and repositioning newly deployed Russian troops. “And I think more optimistically for the Ukrainians in that time frame.”
Nico Lange, a Russia and Ukraine expert, suggested recently that Ukrainian forces will be able to deploy large numbers of military vehicles – potentially as part of a new counter-offensive – as soon as the ground entirely freezes.
Jack Buckby is 19FortyFive’s Breaking News Editor.