In October, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu warned that the conflict in Ukraine was heading for an “uncontrolled escalation” after Moscow warned that it believed Ukraine would use a “dirty bomb” on the battlefield. Kyiv denied it was planning to employ such a weapon, and many Western analysts suggested it was part of a “false flag” operation by the Kremlin.
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There had been additional fears that Russia could escalate the conflict after Vladimir Putin called up hundreds of thousands of new troops, showing his willingness to increase the manpower available to continue his “special military operation.”
Though it would be wrong to put those fears of escalation aside, this week, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) provided an assessment of the Russian offensive campaign and forecast
“with high confidence that Putin will not seek to engage NATO militarily at this time in response to the provision of any of the Western military systems currently under discussion. Russia is barely holding off the Ukrainian military at a fearful cost to itself and Russian forces in Ukraine could not survive a serious conflict with NATO at this time.”
ISW added that at least for the foreseeable future, the risks of deliberate Russian escalation to a major conflict with NATO were extremely low.
Lack of Manpower in Ukraine
One factor is that Russia simply is running out of men to fight the war, even with Putin’s efforts to increase manpower.
In fact, Russian losses in Ukraine have been so great that the Kremlin’s forces are no longer operating as company and battalion tactical groups, and have been forced to use squad-size assault groups in the recent fighting for Bakhmut in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.
Units with as few as 10 to 15 soldiers are taking part in engagements with enemy positions.
According to ISW, this echoes what Russia faced in August in the Kherson region, when its units degenerated from company and battalion tactical groups to individual squad-size units.
Wagner Group Losses Mounting
It hasn’t just been the regular Russian Army that has suffered such significant losses in Ukraine. ISW also reported that the mercenary force known as the Wagner Group – the unit that has been described as Putin’s private army – has also seen heavy losses in the fighting in Bakhmut.
The losses among the private military contractors have been so great that it has likely “strained” the Kremlin’s current operation capabilities in the besieged city.
There are also reports of division between commanders of the pro-Russian mercenary force and the Russian commanders. According to a video that made the rounds on social media, a Wagner fighter even verbally berated Chief of the General Staff of Russia’s Army Valery Gerasimov for the lack of supplies and support they’ve received in recent weeks.
Russian media has tried to downplay the exchange suggesting it was a Ukrainian nationalist, dressed as a Wagner trooper, who appeared in the video.
That claim has been widely dismissed. Instead, it seems more likely that even the mercenaries are having enough of Putin’s futile war.
According to the British Ministry of Defence (MoD) this week, ammunition shortages remain the “most important limiting factor for Russian offensive operations” despite the recent alleviation of personnel shortages.
The ISW assessment concluded, “Russian rate of advances in the Bakhmut area will likely decrease if Russian forces continue advancing at all unless significant new reinforcements and supplies of artillery rounds arrive soon.”
Author Experience and Expertise: A Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.
