Why Russia Could Be Ejected from Crimea: From November 13 to 16, 1920 the Government of South Russia evacuated over the sea from the Crimean Peninsula, which had been the last stronghold of the White movement on the Southern Front during the Russian Civil War. Nearly two decades later, Nazi Germany took the peninsula during the Crimean Campaign, which lasted from October 18, 1941, until July 4, 1942.
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The attacking German and Romanian forces, as well as the defending Soviet troops, suffered heavy casualties as the Axis forces tried to advance through the Isthmus of Perekop that links the peninsula to the mainland. Upwards of 100,000 were killed or wounded on both sides in the fighting.
An even greater number was lost in the month-long Crimean offensive from April 8 to May 12, 1944, when the Soviet Red Army’s 4th Ukrainian Front engaged the German 17th Army of Army Group A. The battle ended with the German evacuation of the peninsula, though German and Romanian forces suffered considerable losses.
Site of Another Campaign
It now appears that Crimea could once again be the site of a major battle, as Ukraine has made it clear that it will seek to drive out Russia, which illegally annexed the peninsula in 2014. According to U.S. officials, the odds favor Kyiv – as history has shown, defending the peninsula is far from easy.
In September, U.S. General Ben Hodges, U.S. Army (Retired), former commander of the United States Army Europe, said he had “great confidence” that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could take control of Crimea by the middle of 2023.
“I hope that by the end of this year, Ukrainian forces will push Russian forces to the positions of February 23,” Hodges told LRT, “and that by the middle of next year, the Ukrainians will be in Crimea.”
It doesn’t appear Ukraine will, in fact, push the Russian forces out of the territory that the Kremlin took after it launched its unprovoked invasion in February.
However, Russia has reportedly lost more than 100,000 men and has seen some 2,000 tanks destroyed. In addition, Kyiv has become emboldened, launching drone strikes on the Russian Naval Base in Sevastopol and Kremlin air bases deep within Russia.
The peninsula may be fairly well fortified as well, but it could be easily cut off from the rest of the Russian Army.
Though the Russian Navy still largely has control of the Black Sea, and Crimea is connected to Russian territory by the Kerch Strait Bridge, it will be no easy task for the Kremlin to keep its forces in Crimea supplied.
It could be a difficult and slow-moving campaign, but as the Government of South Russia learned in 1920, and the Red Army found out in 1942, Crimea can only hold out so long.
The big challenge would be for Ukraine to get its forces into position, but the area known as Syvash has shallow lagoons, which can be crossed at low tide. It was through that area that the Nazis invaded in 1941 and from where the Soviets launched its attack in 1944.
Ukraine’s fleet of small coastal patrol boats could quickly establish beachheads, while the U.S.-supplied HIMARS and other mobile weapons could allow Kyiv’s forces to push into the interior quickly crossing the three-mile-wide Isthmus of Perekop.
What is most important to consider is that for many Ukrainians, the recapture of Crimea is a goal toward ending the eight-year military conflict with Russia. Polls suggest a large majority of Ukrainians even consider it the only acceptable “victory” in the war. Though Russia continues to see the 2014 annexation as righting a “historical wrong” done to them at the end of the Cold War, Ukraine shows a greater resolve to win.
That lack of resolve was why the Government of South Russia fell in 1920 and could be why Russia will fail to hold Crimea in 2023.
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Author Experience and Expertise: A Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.

aldol11
December 29, 2022 at 5:46 pm
even Putin figured out that Crimea is in the Ukraine bag
Jacksonian Libertarian
December 29, 2022 at 6:59 pm
Logistics is Russia’s greatest weakness. Without railroad support within 100 miles, Russia literally can’t support its Industrial Age military in active combat operations. The Kerch bridge is already damaged, and once Ukraine can lay Harpoon missiles on the Azov Sea, the bridge will fall and Russia will be forced to evacuate.
Johnny Ray
December 29, 2022 at 8:13 pm
Crimea is the Golden Fleece, the Crown Jewels, the Jackpot. They must do this. They can win, IF they get the right supplies and support. It should be a land, air and sea effort. True their air and sea capabilities are not great as some others, but they could improvise.
My view is, if Sevastopol falls, the Russians will leave, plain and simple. The key ingredients for Ukraine will be guided munitions, superior electronics and communication, top drawer intelligence. They already have the will to fight and win.
Conversely, the Donbas is a garbage dump by comparison. I say take Crimea, then work on the rest. When Crimea falls, so will Putin. So will Russia.
Slave Ukraine, Slava HIMARS!
Johnny Ray
December 29, 2022 at 8:15 pm
Crimea is the Golden Fleece, the Crown Jewels, the Jackpot. Ukraine must do this. They can win, IF they get the right supplies and support. It should be a land, air and sea effort. True their air and sea capabilities are not great as some others, but they could improvise.
My view is, if Sevastopol falls, the Russians will leave, plain and simple. The key ingredients for Ukraine will be guided munitions, superior electronics and communication, top drawer intelligence. They already have the will to fight and win.
Conversely, the Donbas is a garbage dump by comparison. I say take Crimea, then work on the rest. When Crimea falls, so will Putin. So will Russia.
Slava Ukraine, Slava HIMARS!
Yuriy
December 30, 2022 at 12:14 pm
I’m just wondering who you are to solve the problems of Crimea? Do you live there? Where did you get the habit of poking your nose everywhere?
I have been living in Crimea for half a century and the current Russian “occupation” suits me, as do most residents of Crimea. So why do you want Ukraine to return to Crimea and start destroying the population?
Will it make your life better?
Tomb
December 30, 2022 at 4:16 pm
Crawl before you walk…
I think Ukraine has all they
Can do to get back territory
Lost in recent invasion.
Despite talk, not sure
Ukraine should even try to get
Crimea back…
Rick
December 31, 2022 at 5:13 pm
Yuriy,
Nobody cares how long you claim to have lived in Crimea or how many russians have been resettled in Ukraine territory. Once the Kerch bridge is gone how will the russian cowards flee back home?
This is Ukraine territory and that will never change by your bleating nonsense. You are a russian troll. Eight years of occupation of stolen land and importing russians will never alter the facts. Get ready to run with your orc friends or die.
Yuriy
January 1, 2023 at 12:57 pm
Rick,
I was expecting western refinement and democracy here and I’m a bit upset about the language you used, but ok, it seems to me you have some personal issues with Russians, but this is not the subject to discuss here. Do not want to think it was sexual abuse…
So in your opinion, if someone has expressed a different point of view about the situation he is a Russian troll?
In this case, the author of the article should put a note that only “kill all Russians’ comments are welcomed here. I have not noticed it.
Belonging Crimea to Ukraine is questionable, as a minimum, but not for you, for sure. You are such a big expert in geopolitics and history.
And again, I would understand if Ukrainian will write here and asked for blood satisfaction for Crimea, not you.
Please be my guest, come to Crimea and die like a hero for its freedom, I can see that you are very brave from your sofa.
Sorry, I had to troll you, you are too bloodthirsty.