Note: This is part II of a three-part series. You read part I here. You can read part III here. With the onset of winter and the completion of the first two major phases of the war, both sides are now gearing up for what comes next. Both Russia and Ukraine have suffered significant casualties on the battlefield. The outcome of the next phase – and possibly the war – may be decided by events currently taking place well away from the frontlines.
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For more than three months now, the Russians have been engaging in a systematic long-range bombing campaign to cripple or destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in an attempt to severely constrain Kyiv’s ability to sustain its troops in the field and move reinforcements when needed. Though Ukrainian engineers are working heroically to repair the damage from each round of rocket, missile, and artillery attack, almost half of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been destroyed.
Most of the focus has been the burden it places on the civil population – frequent blackouts, loss of running water, and little to no heat – but the attacks have done less obvious damage to Ukraine’s military capacity. Factories have a difficult time keeping the electricity on to produce goods, workers can’t reliably get on electrified trains and subway systems to get to work, war material – including ammunition delivered from the West – is having a hard time getting to the front.
Owing to the combat losses, Ukraine is presently having to conduct another major mobilization of its male population, which also complicates domestic production capacity: with fewer men left to work, there are more jobs going unfilled. Relatedly, the United Nations estimates that almost nine million Ukrainians have fled the country since the war began. Ukraine’s GDP plunged by 41% in November; worse is likely in the new year as Russia’s missile attacks will likely continue. The situation in Russia, on the other hand, is in stark contrast.
Though Ukraine has begun striking targets deeper in Russia in recent weeks, their effects have thus far had marginal effects on Moscow’s war-making capacity. Despite unprecedented global sanctions against Russia, the effects have thus far been minimal, as their economy is expected to shrink by only 3% for 2022. Moscow not only mobilized recruits for its army, it also partially mobilized its industry. While Ukraine is dependent on the West for all its equipment, ammunition, and maintenance needs, Russia has ramped up its domestic production of all classes of war-making materials.
In addition to the immediate addition of 300,000 mobilized troops, Putin is also making plans for the longer term and recently announced the increase of their active force by 500,000 above 2021 levels (though it will take years to fully realize the buildup). Further, at the same time Ukraine is enduring near daily attacks on its civil infrastructure, Russian civil life has been little affected.
All its energy systems are operational. Its domestic economy remains mostly balanced. Russia’s population is not suffering from blackouts, lack of heat, and none of its people have been forced abroad. The West can continue supplying many of Ukraine’s needs, but the supply will remain sporadic, unpredictable, and almost certainly won’t meet the identified demands of Ukrainian leaders.
Even with its domestic production increasing, Russia is having to rely more and more on international partners, as in recent months Iran is reported to have sent thousands of drones and short-range missiles, while North Korea is alleged to have sent other weapons and ammunition. One of the key factors in determining which side will win the war is finding out which side can endure the most effectively. Both sides have given the other body-blows, and both sides have weathered the blows thus far. The question is, how well-prepared are Russia and Ukraine for what comes next and which side can sustain the next blows and remain viable?
The Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba said Ukraine is willing to discuss UN-sponsored peace talks – so long as Russia is first subjected to a war crimes tribunal. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Russia is willing to hold peace talks – so long as Kyiv is first willing to cede all the territory Russia “annexed” earlier this year.
There is, if we’re being honest, zero chance either country will agree to the demands of the other in the foreseeable future. Concurrently, Ukraine seeks more and better offensive weapons while Russia continues building up its combat forces. At present, both sides believe they have a chance to achieve military successes on the battlefield that will put its opponent at a disadvantage and themselves in a superior negotiation position.
Thus, the reality is that until one side suffers so badly on the battlefield that they themselves conclude there is no hope of achieving any positive military outcomes, the fighting will continue unabated. War is at its core a test of wills.
At present, the will of the Ukrainian people is sky-high that it will not contemplate any end of hostilities that results in Russia keeping any territory it has taken since 2014. Russian will is likewise firm in its insistence that it will not stop fighting until it has secured all the territory it has taken since 2014. The terrible reality is that both sets of national will can simultaneously exist and the war will continue. For war termination, either the Russian or Ukrainian population will have to be moved from its current maximalist position and be willing to accept a compromise outcome.
Especially when it comes to the sometimes fickle will and mood of a nation’s population, it is impossible at this point to guess how bad things would have to be for one side’s people that would prompt them to change their currently stout position. While it may be possible to make educated guesses as to the course of battlefield events in the coming four to six months, predicting the end of the conflict is near impossible at this point. That harsh reality makes setting American policy difficult – but also vitally important – as the president must keep U.S. interests and security safe under all circumstances.
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A 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis.
JoeKama
December 31, 2022 at 8:24 am
This is a preventable war. Starting with President Clinton, NATO began its expansion eastward, toward Russia, and it continues with Bush Jr and the neocons in Congress. This started the chain of warfare which led to Russia’s war against Georgia and other former eastern block countries including Ukraine in 2014. The hapless withraw from Afghanistan caused Putin to miscalculate his chance of starting the invasion that has caused all the death and suffering. Had we hold the line against the NATO expansion and made out intention very clear to Russia, the world would be at peace. History will condemn past US presidents, Putin, and the warmongering neocons.
Tomb
December 31, 2022 at 9:12 am
No, it will not end in 2023.
Freeborn John
December 31, 2022 at 9:29 am
Russia’s will to fight depends not on public opinion but that of an old man in ill health. Russia lacks the industrial capacity to win this war in Putin’s lifetime. His successor will pull Russia out of a unwinable quagmire but Russia will be weaker for decades to come than at any point since the 1920s. That is an outcome well worth it to the West to sustain Ukraine.
Ukraine only has to endure to be victorious.
David Chang
December 31, 2022 at 10:04 am
God bless people in the world.
It is up to the people in Ukraine to decide this political issue in presidential election. But the Ukraine President they voted for make they fled abroad, so it is the socialism issue of Europe elections since WWI. Moreover, war academy should not study the political issue of ancient Greece, but study the politics issue in the 19th and 20th centuries to find truth.
But most people in Europe Union do not want to talk about this political issue, Finland president ask people to join NATO only, but the Finland Prime Minister dance with drinking, travel to New Zealand. While German people are still arguing about their defense obligation, the France president is struggling with defense budget, and want to stop socialism in France. If Marine Le Pen don’t help the Ukraine people to correct Ukraine Constitution, Europe will be under people, not under God. Karl Marx will win.
Because most people in Europe do not want to fulfill their obligation, people in America are forced to decide the Europe socialism warfare issue in the next America presidential election.
God bless America.
PubliusNaso
December 31, 2022 at 11:40 am
This article is not presenting accurately the precarious position of the Russian economy. Russia is self-sufficient in energy and food, but their production of advanced products and weapons is severely affected by sanctions. Advanced Russian weapons are basically full of Western components.
I have family and friends in countries neighboring Ukraine. What I hear is that the flow of goods and weapons toward Ukraine is incessant, bumper to bumper, at all hours of day and night. Support for Ukraine is not ‘fickle’ but rather constant, planned months in advance and organized by competent logistics companies. What is fickle is the information we get through the press cycle.
My main point is the following. In essence, Ukraine is being integrated into the enormous ecosystem of the European economy. This integration is much more important than the loss of production and energy capacity, which is being restored using donations from more than 50 countries.
Here is what will happen in 2023: Ukraine air defenses will become better and better, just as Ukraine land and coastal defenses got better in 2022. There will be enormous human suffering and migration of millions of Ukrainians, to the point where Ukraine will become almost like an enormous armed camp of men of fighting age, while their families will have shelter in neighboring countries. Barring Russian collapse, Ukraine cannot retake Crimea and I am not sure about the ports on the Azov sea. They should try to get the rail and road lines on the ‘land bridge’ from Crimea to Russia in artillery range at the least though
Lets try to think like a Ukrainian. They have tried to throw off the Russian yoke for centuries. Now is the first time in their history when they have powerful allies and a clear shot at victory. There is no reason to trust anything the Russians promise as part of a cease fire, armistice or peace process. If you were Ukrainian, would you weaken your negotiating position and morale by demanding anything less than the current internationally recognized borders?
Ukrainians will send out their families to safe neighboring countries where they are mostly welcomed and supported. In the next months they will get Bradley fighting vehicles, Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb and JDAMs. They will cut the ‘land bridge’ and possibly interdict the water canal to Crimea, and then be in a position to negotiate.
403Forbidden
December 31, 2022 at 12:51 pm
The proxy war in ukraine will definitely end, just like the good old days in nam, when biden’s massive weapons-&-dollars pumping to kyiv runs out of steam.
Or biden’s ‘noble’ work to create a flow of a massive river blood in ukraine goes completely awry as moscow employs tactical nukes to even the playing field.
Either way, US under biden will relive the good old days of nam. The memories of saigon 1975, frequent wind.
TG
December 31, 2022 at 1:01 pm
An interesting and intelligent article.
Indeed, a test of endurance. If Russia can ramp up its domestic production, but the west starts running low on arms and ammunition that it can deliver to Ukraine, then Russia ultimately wins. And vice-versa.
And yes, the western press keeps screaming that Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure is designed to hurt civilians, but that’s rubbish. As with western attacks on infrastructure when it invades/destroys countries, it’s designed to hobble the ability of the domestic economy to support the war effort, and also increase the costs to the west of supporting Ukraine. But so far there seems to mostly be enough electricity for this not to matter much, and of course it’s making the Ukrainians hate the Russians even more. In my unprofessional opinion, Ukraine’s electricity has to be cut much more than 50% to really effect the war effort. We will see.
But I don’t agree that the morale of the Ukrainian people matter. Ukraine is not a democracy and it could be ground down to dirt and it won’t matter. What could matter is the patience of the western elites – again, the morale of the western working class does not matter, they can be driven into third-world level poverty and it’s not a bug it’s a feature. But will the western economies decline so much that even the elites change their mind? If western support for Ukraine goes away then Russia wins hands down.
T. Martin
December 31, 2022 at 2:09 pm
Stated or not; it seems that the US led NATO coalition’s objective in the Ukranian conflict is to weaken Russia to the point of dismemberment. This aim ultimately would be to marginalize China’s western flank, so the US could maintain premier position in a ‘unipolar’ world. Russia is now framing the conflict , existentially, as a defensive war to maintain it’s sovereignty. Objectively, this ‘dirty little war’ has the potential to become a full on proxy war with the US using the Ukranians as their surrogates against China (silently) which will be enabling the Russians to do their bidding. Who gets bled dry first? In all probability it seems the Ukranians will be first and then, economically, Europe. The US will then be forced to consider and execute a ‘strategic retreat’ with more intelligence than has been demonstrated so far. All this will play out over time.
GhostTomahawk
December 31, 2022 at 4:35 pm
As long as the US continues to illegally mortgage my children’s future to bankroll Ukraine, the globalists that control that client state will gladly send Ukrainian men to die and destroy the future of that nation… for their own profit and schemes.
Keep clapping like a seal for that sweatshirt wearing douche Zelensky while your own govt sells you out for a % you’ll never see but will pay.
Kelvin Clarke
December 31, 2022 at 4:57 pm
You are less wrong than usual with this article, Daniel.
However, the flaws in your logic are simple. The Russian regime may well have put the country on a war economy footing, but there is no way that Russia is capable of weaponisation at the rate that they are losing materiel on the battlefield.
And secondly, an army is only as effective as its willingness to fight. Shooting refuseniks, providing entertainment at the frontlines and sperm banks for soldiers so that they can reproduce after their obliteration on the battlefield will only inspire morale to a certain degree.
Gutting the Russian Army’s appetite for the fight will result in a resolution of the War in Ukraine. It will be sudden and decisive, and the factions within the defeated Russian Army will wreak hell when they return to Russia.
Dan Jensen
December 31, 2022 at 10:35 pm
Great article. I am on Russia’s side because my country lies to me, opposes my values and deprives me of my right to work, leave my home, speak freely and refuse an experimental vaccine that harmed my health. Go, Russia!
Walker
January 1, 2023 at 2:48 am
Beyond the many Russian trolls who camp out here the best comment so far is Kelvin.
Davis isn’t particularly interested in being realistic. But as Kelvin says, at least he isn’t terribly incorrect, just missing the key points. It is wrong to try to compare the effects of the war in Ukraine and Russia equally. This is a war of survival to them. They know what happens when Russia takes over. For the people of Russia this is closer to a war of convenience and pride. What do they get out of annexing parts of Ukraine? Is it worth it to see their military humiliated on the battle field? Is it worth it to see their economy hurt? To see their children come home in body bags?
This really isn’t a comparison of apples to Oranges. The Russian Troll 403 compares this to Vietnam, but if we did that, Russia would be closer to the US and Ukraine would be like Vietnam, while US and NATO would be like China in such a scenario. If we compare it like this, Russia has had almost twice the number of casualties as the US had in Vietnam and Russia did it in one year vs America over 8 years. Russia really has already lost. It just happened so fast they haven’t been able to process it yet.
TheDon
January 1, 2023 at 8:54 am
Russias future for Ukraine looks like its future vision for Syria. Two countries with millions displace and nothing but blown up buildings.
Millions will leave.
Russias massing of Wagner and convicts cant end well.
2023 will mean many more lost lifes.
Russia gains nothing but a pyle of destroyed cities and profressionally trained convicts.
The Orthodox church has lost 300,000 men, and maybe a lot of families in disagreement with their support.
War for expansion is historically temporary.
Russia would be better to negotiate with EU if they cant with the U.S.
War just is a knife in the hearts of citizens who’s loved ones are killed. It will be 3 generations until relations normalize.
Putin irrationally thought Ukraine would submit to Russia.
Now its only about ones pride, not Russia or Orthodox or Ukrainian lives.
The Al U Know
January 1, 2023 at 10:00 am
@ Walker
So if it ISN’T a comparisson of apples to oranges, is it a comparisson of apples to apples???
You make less sense with this one.
Your love of Kevin is as ill-conceived as your bias, hatred, for Daniel. A psychosis even.
Daniel Davis assesses what, at a basic level whatever is happening.
Isn’t Ukrainian infrastructure getting hit? 41% of the energy grid is down, right. I’ve heard AP say more. PMC commander Priz.. and Ramzan Kadyrov are howling for more, asking why Russia hasn’t hit the rail networks. Or why military advisors are running around freely.
Isnt Ukraine mobilising most of its men? It is, as you say, an existenial threat.
1M men. A pretty sizable force compared to what, 200K. 600K if all that Russia mobilized was at the frontline, all at once!?! I am no Russian troll, but I try to be skeptical of what the Ukraine government feeds me for info. Even if Russia lost 100K, do you really believe it cost only 6-13K? Even the AP cant verify this one because ‘the fighting is really heavy’. How many are in morgues? How many are in the mud? Like when the EU president said 100k died, the Ukrainian MoD said no, that is only the injured. Under the propaganda logic you might be made to think that Russia is only firing rubber bullets. Sigh.
Even if HIMARs had the range and some success at a river crossing, 20 are hardly enough to do a blitz 400km plus to the Crimea. Along a 1200km front. Which is why you see static front lines. Maybe in 2023 the war will end, but I think it will not and you can still be here venting at Davis while he collects paychecks.
What do the Russians get? They get the 4 breakaway regions such as Donetsk and Luhansk that would have been less inclined to siding with Russia had they not been shelled since 2014. Had Ukraine treated its Russian speaking population as Canada Kowtows to its nationalistic Quebec minority there would be no issue. But that was the plan, according to the now defensive Merkel. Magnitsky II was to buy time to rearm a war hungry Ukraine, to roll over its former bretheren.
“They know what happens when Russia takes over.”
Same as last time.
They had nukes.
They had innovative, domestic tank making.
They even had the capacity to make an aircraft carrier.
Yes, under the yoke of communism but communism is gone.
Russia’s system is authoritarian, former oligarchy yes. But when NATO ‘peacefully’ has crept closer to it. It becomes an existential threat and even Putin knew peace would be more fatal than war. With 145M people does he, without losing his Putinist system, let Russia be sanctioned into starvation like North Korea?
“Shooting refuseniks, providing entertainment at the frontlines” -your idol and spoonfeeder, Kevin
In fact both sides do this. AFU actually spent energy marching its demoralized through a forest to shoot them through the back. It executes whole squads if but one is unruly. The fact is this is war and contary to American depictions war is not so sanitary.
As for entertainment, wouldnt it be serious if you went out in full kit to do Tik Tok dances at the first sign of winter. Or dressing up like a CoD Santa. The morale is still high on both sides, as you can see. No, Russia is not losing it yet. If it happens it happens and if it soothes the ego to tell you that you were right, then so be it. But you are a little light on specifics.
Enjoy your day and dont fret about DD so much. A psychological fixation is not healthy.
The Al U Know
January 1, 2023 at 10:06 am
PS. Sqauds* of surrendered soldiers.
Paul
January 1, 2023 at 6:33 pm
The AI U Know:
You claim you are not a Russian troll, but you are parroting some kremlin talking points that you need to be pretty far down a propaganda rabbit hole to believe in. You wrote: “But when NATO ‘peacefully’ has crept closer to it. It becomes an existential threat and even Putin knew peace would be more fatal than war.” Only a Russian paranoid imperialist would frame the NATO expansion like this. The fact is that as soon as the iron curtain fell the nations of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all came running to Brussels banging on the NATO-HQ door begging to be admitted to NATO. They knew very vell what they were running from and did not want to risk falling back under Russian “protection”
So are these nations not sovereign and have the right to choose their own future? Or is it these nations and Ukraine’s duty to sacrifice their future and instead become vassals of Russia so that Putin kan feel safer and Russians can feel pride in beeing the last empire of Europe? Basically you are saying that independent nations around Russia can not be tolerated because this is an “Existential threat” to you.
And now that we se how Russia is behaving towards those that did not make it to the safety of a membership (Ukraine and Georgia) its hard to argue that those that did make it made a bad choice. We can for example safely assume that the baltic nations at this point would all be back under Moscows thumb by now without the NATO membership.
And by the way, unlike the Warsaw pact, NATO members become members of their own will and are free to leave if they wish.
Coalclinker
January 1, 2023 at 7:34 pm
People seem to like to argue about who is winning and who is losing, who is going to shoot what, and all that other stuff we glean from the press. However, the bare facts are this: Who is getting most of their country methodically blown part day by day? Who with the exception of a few attacks on a base or two and a few border towns, has had very little damage to its infrastructure?
I think if you can be honest with yourself, answering these questions will pretty much tell you who will capitulate, and who will be determining the future of its neighbors. The one getting reduced back into the stone age is not going to be the winner.
dave
January 1, 2023 at 10:57 pm
Colonel MacGregor, Ukraine 100,000 dead, 300,000 to 400,000 wounded. Russians 25,000 to 35,000 dead.
Scott Ritter, Ukraine 100,000 dead, possibly 200,000. Russians 16,000 to 20,000 dead.
Ukraine army is only 190,000 right now per Macgregor. They are calling up 13 to 15 year olds.
Ukraine outnumbered Russians 3 to 1. Now it`s the other way around.
Bender
January 2, 2023 at 7:19 am
Daniel Davis: remember to tegister as a foreign agent if you havn’t already..
Stefan Stackhouse
January 2, 2023 at 9:59 am
Several factors to consider:
The capacity of the US and its allies to produce weaponry is limited, and we are already bumping up against those limits. Ukraine would like to get more and ever more, but the answer is going to have to be “no”. We won’t cut them off, but they will get what we can manage to produce, and no more. The Russians may have trouble supplying their troops, but so will Ukraine.
China has so far been sitting on the sidelines and not supplying Russia. This could change. If the Chinese decide to start supplying Russia with weaponry, this could be a huge game-changer.
The reality is that there is no way that Russia is going to lose this war without first using some of its nuclear weapons. Sorry, people, but this is the reality. Desperate nations use everything at their disposal. The detonation of even just one or two nukes would be another huge game-changer. At the very least, that would be the end of all the Ukrainian bravado. The calculus would change, and coming to a negotiated settlement would begin to look more attractive.
It is improbable that all three of these would come to pass together. For example, if the weapons deliveries from the US and NATO slows and the Chinese start supplying the Russians, then it is unlikely that the Russians would feel the need to resort to their nukes. On the other hand, if the US and its allies somehow manage to ramp up production and the Chinese continue to sit on the sidelines, then the Russians might indeed be pushed into a corner and unleash the nukes. Either way, though, I see a total Ukrainian victory (on their terms) as being unlikely. That hardly means that the Russians have it made, either. Something in-between, resulting in a protracted struggle that eventually grinds into a stalemate, remains the most likely scenario.
The Al U Know
January 2, 2023 at 10:57 am
@ Paul
Yeah, the West is a great place to live. Which is why ALL those nations you mentioned moved closer to it. Capitalism won and communism could not outspend it, post 1990s. The USA has the money. It is still in the cards whether those ‘who made it to safety’ made the right, long-term, choice. I would argue that the only reason they prospered was because they were Europeans in a Eurozone. Even now France, Italy and Germany are the only real economic engines and if you follow some economics they are losing domestic producers like BASF, and production is not the greatest since trying prematurely to move to renewables. Poland could be, it has the people.
The turn of the millennium is where the dream of globalization starts to fade. Capitalism brings prosperity, which brings democracy. Iraq and Syria are torn apart by ethnic division but the USA does not care because they get the oil to get the production, to sell its product to its allies. On the outset of this war they even mingled in the desert with the Russians. Dare I say every ‘right’-holding nation that is not the West is a colony still??
Speaking of colonies, how are the former colonies and poor peoples faring? Our shiny tech, renewable energy and vast wealth has not stopped DR Congo youth from carrying cobalt in sacks on their backs. Slaves? Or from people in the Philippines from sorting the ‘recyclables’ that the West litters their shores with. Slaves? The rights of people to exist?? You cut yourself from Russian oil…ok no supporting a murderous dictatorship. This one, ok. But the others, yes.
Germany cut a deal with Qatar in the midst of the World Cup, never mind the 400-500 people this monarchy admits they worked to death. Biden goes to Venezuela, another brutal dictatorship, for their oil. Never mind one that they openly sought to sanction into oblivion and support an opposition that had no hope from the onset. Sudan, Ethiopia/Tigray, Nigeria, Burkina Faso…what are those??
Globalization may raise general GDP, but only as a side-effect.
‘Fine if you want to come with me and prosper, but when the S#!* hits the fan I’m #1’
Ukraine?
In Ernst & Young in 2017, experts considered Ukraine to be the ninth-most corrupt nation from 53. At one point in Europe. Globalization did not care that they were the world’s largest wheat exporter. It did not care about the asphyxiation, even if done by Russia, continued for more than 25 years. And destroyed its industrial capacity to make domestic tanks, carriers and Anotonovs.
——————–
But if you comprehend my post I was going by how the Russian establishment saw it. Not that I take that position. I even tell you that it is not my position. Even in that tidbit of my OP you quote I state Putin in the third person. “Putin knew”. Modus Operandi. Get it? Contain your emotion and offer me more than the degradation of derogatory comments.
Paranoid, expansionist, imperialist. I know you want to go further. Why not go orc, vatnik? You wish to act on it?
I’m talking Russia’s choices. To know the other, the enemy, you must think outside your comfort zone. With ALL those nations you mention, Russia did not make a choice on them. Perhaps it was too weak, yet still aggressively imperialist? It is a hindsight hypothetical you can sit on all you want.
Well it made a choice in Ukraine, based on the needs of the 4 breakaway regions that only parted ways with Ukraine because the UFA built an Anthill and has been shelling cities like Donetsk since 2014. There was an inadequate move to reconcile the wants of the pro-Westerners and those who wanted to carve a middle ground. A good chunk of the country is 43-46% Russian speaking. More so, the closer to Crimea you get, around 97%. It is doable, Canada panders to its Quebec minority, affording them special status that gets them special monetary transfers and power to halt another province from being an economic engine and from producing oil.
“Ukraine’s duty to sacrifice their future”
Sorry to tell you this, but they are the shield that keeps the old Red Bear at bay and props up the prosperity of the Globalist system. Merkel says via Magnitsky II. Just enough weapons to fight, not enough to win. Even if just 6-13K Ukrainians died, they are sacrificing for my leisure. The now average of 4 hours a day on social media, like most in the West. And I am online caring about the issue. For most, it is ‘who cares, why does it matter, I’ve got my own issues to worry about’ and ‘one day’. Their economy is 50% of what it was pre-war and of that $47B Biden approved before Christmas, $28B is held in reserve. The West does not want them back on their feet. At least not yet. Not as dramatic as ‘slava Ukraini- to the last Ukrainian’, but they are sacrificing their future so those who believe they are ‘standing with Ukraine’ can enjoy the smug, self-assured glee they get from thinking their minimalist approach will make Ukraine one again and bring Russia to the edge of ruin. Action is better than words. I’d go if sent. I’d make weapons if told to stay. I’d kill, but cautiously because I fear mortality.
Tallifer
January 2, 2023 at 11:43 am
Americans who root for the Russians are usually the same traitors who wish that the Confederate slavers had won the Civil War.
Jim
January 2, 2023 at 12:50 pm
What will happen in Ukraine?
I’ve made this prediction before upon request.
“Russia will keep working Bakhmut as long as Ukraine keeps sending reinforcements… to be finished within a about a month or so… allowing transition time, then an offensive to clear Donbas and encircle significant numbers of Ukrainian soldiers.
Russia breaks organized resistance in the Donbas around the end of March… early April… then by the middle of May organized resistance collapses East of the Dnieper river.”
Middle of May… with settlement talks @ the start of Summer.
The Ukraine Project has been a House of Cards from the beginning.
Should my prediction bear out… the pressure on the “House of Cards” will be immense.
People you wouldn’t expect will call it out for what it is… a deception on the American People.
For supporters of the Ukraine Project the Spring Time will be an excruciating, strangulation of all that they’ve said… and exposed for what they always were.
Deceptions.
Simon Beerstecher
January 3, 2023 at 7:35 am
Thank God that NATO did “expand” after the cold war, all new countries wanted and did join the alliance as a result of Russian bullying and their experiences living under the jackboot of the USSR.Just look at Belorus today, the people have no sel;f determination today,Russia just does what it wants in Belorus , using it as a springboard for direct attacks on Ukraine.Lukashenko has no choice in the matter.
Sadly this war would never have happened had Ukraine joined NATO with Poland and the rest of the Eastern European countries,however at the time they were dominated by old communists,oligarch and manipulated by Russia to stay within their sphere of influence.However the new generation are a different and understand and want democracy in their country.Russian reaction to an ex Soviet Republic becoming democratic only goes to reinforce the very reasons why the Baltics,Poland and now Sweden and Finland want out of the barbaric Imperialism of Russia.
Ultimately it will be impossible for Russia to occupy all of Ukraine,maybe they will hold on to some territory but at the cost ultimately being isolated from much of the Western World , exposing themselves as thugs unable to compete with the democratic nations of the Western World.The greatest danger to Russia will be its own long term economic isolation and inability to raise the standard of living and well being of its own population.Ukraine will not only survive but will thrive.The new Iron Curtain seperating Russia from Ukraine and the West will eventually fall and a bunch of new Republics will once again seek to crawl from under the jackboot of Russian Imperialism.So it will go on from the borders of Poland to beyond the Urals to the Kamchakne Peninsula people will demand control of their own destinies.All empires fall and Russia’s empire is no different.
Paul
January 4, 2023 at 6:33 am
@The Al U Know
I can’t see anywhere in your text a distinction made between your own and Putins view on a perceived existential threat from NATO admitting new members. If there was, then it probably got lost in translation from Russian to English. But if so I’m glad to hear and would only extend the label of “Paranoid, expansionist, imperialist” to Putin. Please feel free to highlight the differences between the two of you. But make sure to hide your identity if your views are critical of Putin, critical of Russian war crimes or if you even calls it a war. We don’t want you to go to prison for simply speaking your mind.
You bring up a flurry of topics that on their own can be interesting. Globalization, capitalism, colonialism, western pollution of 3. world, etc. But they serve only to cloud the issue here, the issue of the people of Ukraine choosing their own future. You also bring up percentages of Russian speaking population in Ukraines eastern parts. Even if some Russian speakers may welcome the idea of becoming part of Russia this is far from a universal view. I have contact with several refugees from Ukraine who speaks Russian and identifies as Russian culturally but strongly opposes the Russian invasion.
You present the West at a great place to live because of capitalism. But you don’t mention democracy. Even though western democracies are far from perfect and some are currently on a path to oligarchy or autocracy, they have a superior way, compared to Russia, to identify and address the needs of the population and to find compromises that all can accept.
Wesser
January 6, 2023 at 2:52 pm
The bills have to be paid and Davis is out to earn his paycheck from Putin.
Lots of wrong fact. Economical numbers are wrong and the long-term impact of the russian terrorist attacks overstated.
Moreover the fellow try to foster the impression that letting Putin have his way with Ukraine would solve everything
The stark truth is that we cant afford NOT to support Ukraine.
If Ukraine falls so does Georgia and Moldova. My personal guess is that Kasakhstan is next while the russians try to set up covert operations in Poland and the Baltics
Russia will keep attacking country after country until they are stopped. Simple as that