Hispanics are very much a big voting block that will only grow in the years to come. And it seems Democrats can’t count on their support as they did in the past.
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The irony is that Democrats had been banking on Hispanic voters – America’s fastest-growing group of voters – to vote Democrat and solidify an impenetrable majority.
The plan hasn’t quite panned out.
Instead, Hispanic voters are threatening to tip the balance in favor of Republicans. That Hispanics are leaving the Democrat party serves as an indictment against the Democratic worldview, and an indication of a much larger problem.
Arizona As a Test Case
Arizona is perhaps the ideal place to examine the Hispanic-DNC relationship. Arizona’s Hispanic population has tripled since 1990 – a population spurt that had Democrats salivating at the potential of being able to rely on Hispanics in the future. But Arizona was still a conservative place, trending red in election after election while the Hispanic population grew and, mostly, aligned with the Democrats. The scale tipped in 2020 when Joe Biden edged out Trump in Arizona, flipping the red state blue. Biden’s Arizona victory represented just the second DNC win in Arizona since Harry Truman carried the state. Biden’s margins were razor-thin, just three-tenths of a percentage point.
And the Hispanic turnout? Massive.
Hispanics helped Democrats turn the tide in Arizona, suggesting that the Democrats’ long-term plan of cultivating the Hispanic vote was coming to fruition.
Actually, the plan seemed to have come to fruition before the 2020 election, when during the 2018 midterm election, Democrats won the Hispanic vote by 40 points nationally. Yet despite a 40-point lead just four years ago, current polls show that the Hispanic vote is split equally between Democrats and Republicans – meaning the Democrats blew a 40-point lead in just 4 years.
That’s a pretty epic reversal.
Why Hispanics Are Going to the GOP?
I’ve answered that question, implicitly, in many of the articles I’ve written here at 19FortyFive.
The Democratic party represents the professional-managerial class – not the top one percent of the population necessarily, but the top ten percent; Democrats have become detached from the needs and concerns of the working class. Instead of offering policies geared towards improving middle class voters’ quality of life, Democrats offer superficial tokens of support. I’m talking about, in the case of Hispanic voters, a Google Doodle of Frida Kahlo. Hispanic Heritage Month. Corporate sponsored diversity trainings that emphasize the sufferings of Hispanic populations. Bookshelves brimming with memoirs from Hispanic authors (who probably went to Yale, NYU, Princeton).
Right, we get it.
Democrats support Hispanic people. In theory, anyway.
But that’s the thing. Hispanic Heritage Month doesn’t put food on the table. It’s like spraying some perfume on a corpse – the corpse being Democratic policies that have gutted the middle-class. And Hispanic voters just aren’t buying it anymore.
Hispanic voters, who often happen to be middle and working class, are going to vote with the party more closely aligned with their middle- and working-class interests. Not the party who exerts the most energy affirming that they care for a voter’s particular racial identity. There’s a lesson there that Democrats, who have calibrated their entire worldview, and corresponding political machine, around divvying up the entire country into various demographics, should heed. Take the GOP. The GOP is successfully marketing themselves as the party of the working class (which is remarkable given that their policies suck for the working class). And the GOP, in marketing themselves as the party of the working class – and without catering to race in any respect, has siphoned off hordes of Hispanic voters from the Democrats.
The fascinating thing about Democrats, however, is that even after the dust settles on 2022, and they’ve squandered their 40-point lead with Hispanic voters, Democrats will refuse to self-reflect and take appropriate accountability.
Rather, the Dems will deflect blame, citing some -ism or another. But it’s going to be harder and harder to plausibly blame your defeat on racism when your only remaining constituents are white college grads.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, he joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. He lives in Oregon and listens to Dokken.