With less than two weeks until the midterm election, political momentum appears to be further trending in the direction of Republicans. POLITICO’s election forecaster, Steve Shepard, has released an updated projection for the election, with five races changing “status.” Four of the five updates favor the Republicans.
Let’s walk through them.
The Arizona Senate race has moved from Lean Democrat to a Toss-up. Blake Masters, the GOP horse in the race, is staging a comeback against Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly. Masters is a 36-year-old tech executive who enjoys the backing of GOP megadonor Peter Thiel, who just pumped another $5 million into the Masters campaign. Although much of Masters’s resurgence has nothing to do with Masters’s performance; voters are frustrated with the Biden administration, and with illegal immigration that they view the GOP as being tougher on. And Kari Lake, the GOP’s gubernatorial candidate, has become a national figure, touting MAGA principles with the polish of a broadcasting professional; Lake has raised the profile of the entire GOP in the state, offering Masters a wave to ride to victory.
Arizona’s trend towards Republican is significant, threatening to help the GOP flip the Senate. Five Senate races are now rated as Toss-ups: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The outcomes in the Toss-up states will likely determine the Senate majority.
Pennsylvania’s gubernatorial race has moved from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat. The GOP seems to have abandoned their candidate, Doug Mastriano, who has struggled against Democratic candidate Josh Shapiro. The gubernatorial race offers a shimmer of hope for Pennsylvania Democrats, who are still reeling from John Fetterman’s uniquely poor debate performance last Tuesday.
Two races in southern California are trending towards Republicans.
California’s 27th District, north of Los Angeles, has been updated from Toss-up to Lean Republican. Democrats had entered the race with hopes of unseating GOP Representative Mike Garcia (Biden won the district by 13 points). Now that objective seems far-fetched. Democrats appear to be moving on, unwilling to spend valuable resources on advertisements in the super expensive Los Angeles media market, having classified the race as a lost cause.
California’s 49th district, near San Diego, has been updated from Lean Democrat to Toss-up. Democratic Representative Mike Levin is still in the race – but he’s no longer the clear favorite. Republican Brian Maryott has a real shot to win the seat.
The final update comes from my state of residence, Oregon, where the 5th district, near Portland, has been updated from Toss-up to Lean Republican. The race for the 5th has been a little bit messy. Democratic candidate Jamie McLeod-Skinner, who successfully ousted incumbent Kurt Schrader in the Democratic primary, is suffering from the neglect of national Democrats – who have moved to salvage other Oregon races. Biden won the district by 9 points – and Portland is notoriously liberal – but rampant homelessness, crime, and wokeness have inspired a Republican resurgence in the area.
POLITICO’s updates suggest the Republicans are very capable of flipping the House in November; the current tally places 213 races favoring Republicans. Only 218 seats are needed for a majority. Meanwhile, Democrats are favored in 195; 27 House races are regarded as Toss-ups that could go either way.
Overall, Republicans are expected to “win” the midterm elections. The out-of-power party historically fares well in midterm elections, which typically serve as a referendum on the party in power. With inflation at record highs, gas prices at record highs, war underway in Europe, and GOP-favoring issues like crime, immigration, and the economy front of mind for American voters, the GOP may well take back Congress.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, he joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. He lives in Oregon and listens to Dokken. Follow him on Twitter @harrison_kass.
Deep Dark
October 29, 2022 at 10:22 am
The expected steps to be taken are:
Win over the House
Win the presidency
Dismantle democratic rule
Dismantle FBI
Dismantle Department of Justice
Replace key civil servants with yesmen
Replace the Supreme court with yesmen: already done
Declare retreat from Nato
Declare retreat form the UN
Declare retreat from Japan, Korea
Declare retreat from interest in Taiwan
Declare the fascist devided states of America
Turn military assest from retreats to fight for the President to subdue democratic ruled states.
Civil war and using tactical nuclear weapons againt American terrorists resisting the fascists in Washington.
It could be a novel…
Omega 13
November 1, 2022 at 4:08 pm
Sounds like a novel written by a Democrat conspiracy theorist.
H.R. Holm
October 29, 2022 at 12:36 pm
A lot of pundits are predicting a GOP sweep a-la 1994, but no one knows for sure until election results are in. And since our elections have evolved to the point of being corruptible and very uncertain (between early and mail-in voting), we might not even know (supposedly) some results by even the day after Nov. 8. (So avoidable and unnecessary.) But even if they do take the majority in either or both houses, the GOP still has an underlying problem. Whereas the Democrat Party has become utterly infected with millenial wussie pajama-boy (and girl) types, the Republican Party has allowed itself to be corrupted by the likes of what can be called fuzzy bunny-slipper RHINOs (Republican In Name Only). Premier among them: weepy-sissy Adam Kinzinger, and more recently, Mitt ‘Pierre’ Romney, who has drifted so far from where he was as Presidential candidate in 2012, we would need some sort of search party to find his former self. Then there’s ‘Ma Barker/Fabulous Moola’ (literally) Liz Cheny, but fortunately she is now ‘out’, yet has vowed not to remain down. And having an increasingly cave-to-Democrats Mitch McConnell as Senate Majority Leader will be at best a watered-down help, if that. Even Lindsey Graham and Kevin McCarthy cannot be depended on to be consistent adherents to traditional Republican positions on the issues. So don’t necessarily expect any big things from a Republican-dominated Congress, even if there is an increased number of MAGA-types in either or both chambers. The party has
drifted too much in the direction of accomodation with the opposition—-I give you the votes on both the infrastructure spending package and the House “assault weapons” ban as prime examples. Republican votes pushed the latter over the top, few as they might have been.
Bob
October 29, 2022 at 12:45 pm
Finally an honest, well written article by Harrison! let’s see more of the same in the future.
GhostTomahawk
October 29, 2022 at 6:09 pm
Bro…Pennsylvania Wisconsin and Nevada are now Lean or republican favorite. The democrats are going to lose the house by a sizeable margin. They likely will lose the senate by at least 2 seats.
Mid terms tend to be a referendum on president performance, (aside from 2018 which was a media concocted smear campaign that was orchestrated by the democrats and establishment) which has been a complete disaster this year and last. The democrats are losing seats because they refuse to campaign on what is front and center (which they ARE the cause of) THE ECONOMY STUPID. All the democrats needed to do was talk about breaking from Bidens bad economic strategy and talk to the issues. Biden isn’t their guy in 24. So who cares
Omega 13
November 1, 2022 at 4:09 pm
Yes. The GOP will dominate the midterms despite desperate attempts to cheat by the Dems and blatant partisanship lying by a so-called “mainstream” media.