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Donald Trump Is Already Losing the 2024 Election

Donald Trump
Donald Trump. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

Donald Trump May Be Losing Key Voting Bloc – One of former President Donald Trump’s rivals has won a recent straw poll taken from a critical Republican constituency – young, pro-life voters. Members of Students for Life Action voted that they prefer Florida Governor Ron DeSantis for president instead of Trump. The poll was taken after the annual March for Life rally on the weekend of January 21.

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What Were the Results of This Poll?

DeSantis received almost 54 percent of the vote to Trump’s 19 percent. Former Vice President Mike Pence came in with around 8 percent of the vote.

No other candidate scored over two percent. The voting happened at the National Pro-Life Summit in Washington, DC. The straw poll asked around 2,000 attendees their preferences.

Donald Trump May Have Taken Eye Off the Ball

Trump may have struggled to inspire these pro-life activists after blaming less than stellar 2022 Midterm election results on the abortion issue – that the end of Roe v. Wade influenced some to vote against Republicans.

That may have been where the anti-abortion group members saw that Trump’s commitment to the pro-life issue has waned.

Do Not Make Pro-Lifers Mad

Students for Life Action President Kristan Hawkins reminded the media that the youth vote makes up a substantial portion of GOP primary voters.

Hawkins has stated in an op-ed that DeSantis and others have been more consistent in their views on abortion even though Trump nominated three Supreme Court justices who were instrumental in sending the regulation of abortion back to the states.

Trump’s Pick of the Litter Was Weak on Abortion

Meanwhile, Trump-backed politicians like “Dr. Mehmet Oz and Blake Masters who failed to clearly define their pro-life convictions — whatever they were — failed to win votes,” Hawkins wrote.

Trump said earlier this month the abortion view that “insisted on no exceptions, even in the case of rape, incest, or life of the mother,” negatively affected GOP support.

Hawkins referred to her members as part of a pro-life generation and implied that they need complete dedication against abortion to get their vote.

Trump Can Come Back

While this poll is bad news for Trump it is not a death blow.

He has just started his presidential campaign and has plenty of time to win back the support of pro-life activists.

He will soon be starting his country-wide rallies and speeches in which he can extoll his anti-abortion bona fides. One speech that will be important is his address to the annual right-wing CPAC meeting in early March. CPAC typically has a high percentage of college-aged attendees, so Trump can speak to them directly.

There will also be another straw poll at CPAC that will measure his support.

Don’t Neglect the Youth Vote

But Donald Trump cannot afford to lose young people in their twenties. Republicans tend to underperform among these Generation Z voters.

He needs as many votes from this bloc as possible to maintain the fractious conservative coalition needed to be victorious in the primary.

Consider Trump Warned

Hawkins threw down this gauntlet of a warning against Trump. “Pro-life voters are looking for a passionate defense of mother and child and a commitment to act,” said Hawkins. “A throwaway line in a speech will not cut it with the Pro-Life Generation.”   

Trump said he was “very pro-choice” during an interview on Meet the Press in 1999 but he changed his stance by the time he first ran for president in 2015. Trump needs to do well with evangelical conservatives in his re-match with President Joe Biden. Winning a Republican primary without conservative Christian support will be difficult. Other candidates who have not declared yet could carve out a niche of evangelicals who may be looking for new faces instead of Trump.

The former president may need to adjust his messaging during public pronouncements not to alienate young pro-life supporters and Christian primary voters since their support cannot be taken for granted.

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Author Expertise and Experience: Serving as 19FortyFive’s Defense and National Security Editor, Dr. Brent M. Eastwood is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer. You can follow him on Twitter @BMEastwood. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Science and Foreign Policy/ International Relations.

Written By

Now serving as 1945s New Defense and National Security Editor, Brent M. Eastwood, PhD, is the author of Humans, Machines, and Data: Future Trends in Warfare. He is an Emerging Threats expert and former U.S. Army Infantry officer.

1 Comment

1 Comment

  1. Him

    January 24, 2023 at 4:50 am

    Brent, you need to read more widely to see what is happening. The pulse among conservatives is that DeSantis has good numbers in Florida, but not elsewhere. Trump has the conservative numbers across the nation.

    Therefore, for you to extrapolate DeSantis’s Florida polls to conclude Trump is losing nationwide – it shows your lack of interaction with the mainstream man in the street. It’s like your a data-cruncher, rather than a street-smart person who knows what is happening on the ground.

    Do you by chance happen to live in the fishbowl of Washington where what you said seems normal, but lacks to street cred of someone who rubs shoulders with main street America?

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