President Joe Biden’s reelection chances weren’t looking so hot for a minute there.
Over the summer, Biden’s popularity rating plummeted, inflation was at a forty-year high, and Democrats were poised to be slaughtered during the midterm elections.
Biden, just eighteen months into his first term, looked like he was cooked.
But now, with inflation easing downwards and Biden’s popularity easing upwards, with the Democrats resisting a “red wave” during the midterms, and with a slew of legislation signed, Biden looks like he may have some life left in him.
So, the question is: could Biden win reelection?
Will Biden Run for Reelection?
In order to win reelection, Biden needs to first run for reelection. So far, Biden hasn’t announced his intentions for 2024 – although an announcement is expected in the next few weeks.
Biden told reporters recently that he was going to take the holidays to consult with his family before deciding. Presumably, Biden’s holiday consultations have occurred, and a decision is forthcoming.
Undoubtedly, Biden’s improved fortunes will be relevant to the decision-making process. Had Biden’s “situation” over the summer persisted (or exacerbated) through the fall, into the winter, the octogenarian incumbent may have stepped aside to allow fresh blood to assume leadership of the Democratic Party.
Biden could still choose not to run, of course – he is 80. If Biden runs for reelection his second term will extend between his 82nd and 86th birthday. Remember, Biden is already the oldest president to ever serve.
Today. An 86-year-old President of the United States is hard to imagine and, frankly, feels inappropriate. Yet, the Constitution doesn’t say anything about age limits on the presidency. The decision is up to Biden.
Could Biden Win Reelection?
Yes, Joe Biden could win reelection.
The midterm elections offered Biden and the Democrats a bit of hope for 2024; the midterms are typically viewed as a referendum on the party in power.
For 2022, the party in power – of both the White House and each chamber of Congress – was the Democrats. Historically, when a single party dominates government, that party faces a backlash and typically loses the majority.
Well, Democrats held on to a majority in the Senate and gave up just a slim majority in the House.
The results suggest that voters – especially the crucial voters populating swing states like Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Michigan – are “okay” with Biden and the Democrats. Biden, no doubt, has taken the midterm results as a suggestion that he remains a viable candidate.
Meanwhile, Biden’s popularity is ticking back upwards. Granted, Biden’s popularity had nowhere to go but up – his popularity had cratered to historic depths, lower than any other president ever.
But Biden deserves some credit for the comeback; he signed multiple bills into law over the summer, including the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS and Science Act, and the PACT Act.
Who Would Joe Biden Run Against?
Whoever the GOP offers to oppose Biden in the general election will of course influence Biden’s likelihood of victory. The GOP field remains unclear but threatens to be deep. A few frontrunners are presumed, like Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, and Ted Cruz. Biden has already defeated Trump in a presidential election and certainly could again.
But Trump appears vulnerable to being replaced as the GOP standard bearer; for the first time since 2012, someone not named Trump may represent the GOP in the presidential election.
Whoever it is, Joe Biden will have a fair shot at winning.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison lives in Oregon and listens to Dokken.
