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Smart Bombs: Military, Defense and National Security

The War in Ukraine Is About to Get Even Worse

M142 HIMARS Like in Ukraine
M142 HIMARS. Image Credit: Creative Commons.

The war in Ukraine is edging closer to its one-year anniversary, but the situation on the ground continues to be stale.

Indeed, as the two sides are getting ready for another round of large-scale offensive and counteroffensive operations, the war seems to have no end in sight

Ukraine is finally getting some of the weapon systems that will help break the Russian defenses, but with deliveries weeks and months away, the situation on the ground won’t change significantly anytime soon.

On the other hand, the Russian military has created extensive defensive positions all across the battlefield and is also amassing forces for a large-scale offensive.

The time and place of the attack are still a question.

On day 341 of the war in Ukraine, the bloodshed continues

Russian Casualties in Ukraine: Update

Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Monday, Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 126,650 Russian troops (and wounded approximately twice to thrice that number)

Weapons destroyed include: 293 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 284 attack and transport helicopters, 3,201 tanks, 2,196 artillery pieces, 6,369 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 453 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 5,041 vehicles and fuel tanks, 221 anti-aircraft batteries, 1,947 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 199 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 796 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses. 

Another Partial Mobilization?

Despite a reserve of around 150,000 troops, the Russian military needs more men, especially to sustain the upcoming offensives that Moscow has been planning. 

According to the latest estimate by the British Military Intelligence, another wave of mobilization might be coming soon. Like the first time in September, any mobilization is most likely to be partial, calling up certain groups of reservists. 

Last week, Russian media reported that Russian border guards are preventing double Russian citizens from leaving the country because their names are on mobilization lists.

In September, when the Kremlin called up the first partial mobilization, hundreds of thousands of eligible Russian males fled the country to avoid the draft. It looks like the Russian government anticipates another mass exodus with a new mobilization. 

Moreover, Russian Presidential spokesperson Dmitry Peskov recently stated that the decree that governed the first partial mobilization remains in effect, hinting that it could be used at any point in time to call more men to support the “special military operation” in Ukraine.

“The Russian leadership highly likely continues to search for ways to meet the high number of personnel required to resource any future major offensive in Ukraine, while minimising domestic dissent,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.

However, there is an inherent political risk in ordering a mobilization, and the Kremlin won’t do it unless it has no other alternative.

 Russian President Vladimir Putin understands that the best way for the conflict to go on without major domestic backlash is not to upset the average Russian.

Thus far, the Russian population has shown a vague neutrality on average about the war. 

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MORE: A U.S.-China War Over Taiwan Would Be Bloody

Expert Biography: A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business InsiderSandboxx, and SOFREP.

1945’s Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist with specialized expertise in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.



  1. Злой пьяный русский медведь с балалайкой

    January 30, 2023 at 9:21 am

    The Ukrainian army has suffered enormous losses, so it sends fifteen-year-olds to the front line, Colonel Douglas McGregor, ex-adviser to the head of the Pentagon, said on his YouTube channel. “Ukrainians suffered terrible losses. Thirty-five thousand were missing, more than a hundred thousand died. You start adding up these numbers, and it turns out 150 thousand military. Now they are trying to mobilize teenagers aged 13, 14 and 15, incapacitated people. They literally scrape out the remains,” the officer said. American Lieutenant Colonel Davis: the Ukrainian army is collapsing due to huge losses.The armed forces of Ukraine are in danger of collapse if they continue to suffer heavy losses, according to retired American Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis. “It is difficult to overestimate the damage inflicted on the Ukrainian army, this is especially true of tactical commanders at the platoon, company and battalion levels,” the lieutenant colonel writes, adding that the losses deprive Kiev of the opportunity to organize a counteroffensive.. He is quoted by the portal 19FortyFive. On November 10, 2022, American General Mark Alexander Milli — General of the US Army, the 20th chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, previously the 39th Chief of Staff of the US Army called the approximate losses of the parties to the conflict that unfolded on the territory of Ukraine. According to him, Ukraine has lost more than 100 thousand soldiers killed and wounded. The general added that about 40 thousand civilians became victims of the fighting. According to the data announced by the head of the EC Ursula von der Leyen, Ukraine’s losses since February 24, 2022 amounted to over 100 thousand military and about 20 thousand civilians. The Ambassador of Ukraine to the UK, Vadim Prystaiko, admitted in a big interview with Newsweek that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are suffering huge losses. – We are losing people everywhere. We don’t advertise how many of the dead are military or civilian, but you can imagine that the numbers are huge and indigestible. And cities, some of them completely destroyed. And now TRY, Refute these officials and experts

  2. Jacksonian Libertarian

    January 30, 2023 at 11:30 am

    The more interesting question is how much material does Russia have left? At least 50% of everything Russia had accumulated over many decades has been used or destroyed in Ukraine. We know Russia has the manpower, but will we see human wave attacks like in the Iran-Iraq war, because the Russians ran out of arms and equipment?

  3. Johnny Ray

    January 30, 2023 at 1:50 pm

    It’s time for Europe to quit hiding behind the NATO Treaty Excuse and move troops and massive war material to the front in Ukraine. Is Europe in denial? Just cowardly? Lazy? Today the battle front is a small portion of Ukraine, but indeed Russia has declared war on the west. But, the west chooses not to listen. It’s worse than appeasement, it’s deliberate stupidity.

    Seems like the Europeans are standing around waiting for the UK and Uncle Sam to save them, again. It’s shameful.

  4. Walker

    January 30, 2023 at 7:16 pm

    The war is unlikely to last too much longer if the rumors are true. Russia appears to be planning a suicide attack on the whole line of the battle field in February. They will spend all their forces in a full attack. It will be a slaughter. Russians will die in the thousands. Ukrainians will only die after spending all their bullets. Russia may capture a bit more land, but after the wave crashes, the areas where Ukraine held the line will fall to Ukraine and Russia will have nothing behind it. Ukraine will mop them up and swing around behind the Russians completely blocked off from their meager supplies. And the second slaughter will begin. Russian Military will be completely decimated. The Russian generals know it, but they can’t say anything to Putin about it. It is either their military or themselves on the chopping block. And they will sacrifice their army to save their own heads. But even that won’t work. Once they fail, it will be the end of Putin and he is likely to execute them for failure before he himself is taken out. I guess Russia wants to go out in a blaze. It’s going to be interesting to watch.

  5. Nick

    January 31, 2023 at 10:49 am

    This seems like wildly inaccurate click-bait for Americans. The Ukranian Military is saying there are 82000 russian casualties (Zaluzhnyi – Commander of Ukranian Forces). The Russians are claiming even less casualties, but I should use Ukranian numbers for the benefit of the doubt. The Russians admit that the death rate is unusually high. The typical is about 33% of casualties are KIAs. Lets say that 50% of the losses are KIA, thats only 41,000 KIA. So, lets look at statistics. One american says 124000 KIA, Ukraine says 40000 KIA, and Russia says 20000 KIA, one data point is wildly different than the other two by a factor of 3-6X. Something is fishy here and I do not believe any of the three reporting numbers anymore.

  6. Dan

    January 31, 2023 at 1:11 pm

    “ In September, when the Kremlin called up the first partial mobilization, hundreds of thousands of eligible Russian males fled the country to avoid the draft…” Hundreds of thousands? Really? Where oh where did they go? No doubt many fled, but hundreds of thousands? This number seems begging for verification.

  7. mawendt

    January 31, 2023 at 6:52 pm

    I see the repeat arguments about casualties, but whatever. The general answer is Russia has gotten it’ ass kicked hard, and suffered horrible manpower losses requiring the use of Wagner and now soon a second mobilization. (Here’s a hint: if you have to have a mobilization of 150,000 to 300,000 it’s probably a good guess that you’ve sustained losses coming up to 150,000to 300,000 men).

    Russia has also suffered material losses that required them to pull 60 to 80 year old tanks out of mothball, as well as buy weapons and ammunition from anyone that would sell to them (here’s a hint: if you’re doing that, the war isn’t going well for you at all).

    Ukraine, on the other hand, seems to replenishing it’s materials on the West’s checkbook without a blink. And manpower is always an issue as a war drags on, yet Ukraine as yet hasn’t called up 150k guys. Plus it seems the Ukrainian military has extremely high morale, compared to Russian soldier’s morale being somewhere down at the bottom of a Russian outhouse.

    The fact is Russia now has a decent defensive network, which historically (unless your nation is able to roll through a neutral nation to circumvent a Maginot Line – looking at you Germany – is historically costly to break).

    However, in comparison to past fixed deep defenses, today we have satellites pinpointing pillboxes daily as well as identifying mine fields and defenders locations, difficult to detect and kill unmanned aerial reconnaissance that pinpoints targets for artillery and rockets real time, and Western precision munitions that can not only destroy individual steel reinforced cement hard positions but also clear minefield for penetration. Guess who has those now? I’ll give you a hint – the nations name is ‘Not Russia’.

    So I’m thinking observing the vast advantage Ukraine has in morale, leadership, and advanced weapons it’ll be more Shock and Awe than Somme 1916.

    We’ll see.

  8. dave

    February 1, 2023 at 12:38 am

    Ukraine has over 500,000 casualties. Morale is low. No amount of weapons can turn it around. Divide Russian losses by 3, or 4 to be close to realistic numbers. Zelensky said if Abrams tanks don`t arrive by August it`s too late! That tells the tale.

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