According to new polling released Tuesday, former President Donald Trump would lead President Biden 46 percent to 41 percent, while Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris 49 percent to 39 percent.
Donald Trump for the Win?
According to the latest Harvard-Harris Poll, released this week, former President Donald Trump leads in a potential 2024 matchup against President Biden and leads even more in a potential race against Vice President Kamala Harris.
When asked “if the 2024 election for President were held today and it was between Donald Trump, the Republican, and Joe Biden, the Democrat, who would you vote for?” 46 percent said Trump, 41 percent answered Biden, and 13 percent said 13 percent. In a hypothetical Trump-Harris race, 49 percent picked Trump and 39 percent Harris, with the same 13 percent calling themselves unsure.
What About Ron DeSantis?
Should Ron DeSantis break through and win the Republican nomination and face Biden, 42 percent said they would back DeSantis, 41 percent picked Biden, and 17 percent were undecided. DeSantis leads Harris, 42 percent to 40 percent, although 18 percent called themselves undecided in that scenario.
When respondents were asked whether or not Biden should run for a second term, 63 percent answered no and 37 percent yes. When asked “Why should Biden not run in 2024?,” 47 percent answered “he’s a bad president,” 31 percent said “he’s too old” and 22 percent said, “it’s time for a change.”
In addition, 54 percent of those asked said Trump should not run again in 2024, while 46 percent said he should. When asked why he should not run again, 37 percent answered “he’s erratic,” 33 percent said “he’s erratic” and 30 percent said, “he’s responsible for January 6.”
Other Data This Poll Tells Us
Respondents were also asked if they would support an “independent moderate candidate” against Biden and Trump. 55 percent said “yes” and 45 percent “no,” although no specific candidate was mentioned in the question.
When asked what job the next president should have, 35 percent answered “governor,” 25 percent said “businessperson,” 23 percent said “senator” and 18 percent answered “other.”
Voters in the survey were also asked about Biden’s claim, in the State of the Union address, that Republicans are trying to cut Social Security and Medicare. When asked “Do you think Republican members of Congress are trying to cut Social Security and Medicaid benefits?” 56 percent answered “yes” and 44 percent “no.” And when asked if the president “exaggerated or spoke the truth when he made this claim about Republicans working to cut Social Security and Medicaid benefits?” 56 percent answered “exaggerated” and 44 percent said, “he spoke the truth.”
When asked “Do you think Medicare and Social Security need reform to remain solvent or should they not be touched or changed?,” 57 percent said reforms are needed while 43 percent answered, “Should not be touched or changed.”
The poll asked whether the Social Security trust fund should be invested in the stock market — a scenario not seriously proposed since early on in President George W. Bush’s second term — 39 percent said yes and 61 percent no. And when asked “Do you think investing the Social Security trust fund in stocks and bonds would provide higher returns which could avoid higher taxes or is investing it too risky?,” 54 percent said, “too risky.”
The poll also asked about the upcoming debt ceiling fight between the president and Republicans in Congress.
When asked “do you think that President Biden and his administration have signaled any willingness to curb spending in 2023- 2024 or are sticking to their course?,” 67 percent answered no and 33 percent yes.
When asked about the debt ceiling itself, and whether Congress should “vote to raise the national debt without conditions, or… raise it only with restraints on future spending?,” 62 percent said raise only with constraints, and 38 percent said without conditions. And when asked if Democrats should “negotiation spending constraints with the Republicans” or “hold fast,” 63 said negotiate and 37 percent answered hold fast.
Expertise and Experience: Stephen Silver is a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive. He is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.