How can Putin keep sending more and more troops to Ukraine? February is gearing up to be the deadliest month in the conflict in Ukraine.
The Russian military has likely launched a large-scale offensive, but it’s not going well for Moscow.
And so, the war in Ukraine continues for the 354th day.
Russian Casualties in Ukraine
The Russian military continues to bleed troops on the ground in Ukraine.
In its daily operational update on the war, the British Military Intelligence assessed that February so far has been the deadliest month for the Russian military since the first week of the invasion.
Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday were successively the deadliest days of the conflict.
The mean average of Russian casualties for the past week is 824 killed or wounded.
That is over four times the numbers reported in the summer when the Russian military pushed hard in the Donbas toward Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
“The uptick in Russian casualties is likely due to a range of factors including lack of trained personnel, coordination, and resources across the front – this is exemplified in Vuhledar and Bakhmut,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.
The Ukrainian forces are also suffering heavy casualties, but unlikely at the same rate as the Russians.
“The Ukrainian General Staff release daily statistics on Russian casualties. Although Defence Intelligence cannot verify Ukraine’s methodology, the trends the data illustrate are likely accurate,” the British Military Intelligence added.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Sunday, Ukrainian forces have killed approximately 137,780 Russian troops (and wounded approximately twice to thrice that number)
Destroyed equipment includes: 296 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets, 286 attack and transport helicopters, 3,280 tanks, 2,287 artillery pieces, 6,488 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 465 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 5,148 vehicles and fuel tanks, 234 anti-aircraft batteries, 2,007 tactical unmanned aerial systems, 215 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems, and 857 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
The Situation in the East and Force Generation
In the east, the two sides have been fighting along the Kreminna-Svatove line since September.
The Ukrainian troops have been trying to reach the key logistical hub of Svatove through Kreminna.
However, the Russian defenses and wooded terrain have made the Ukrainian progress very slow and costly. The Russian forces are also constantly counterattacking so as to prevent the Ukrainians from getting a foothold. The Ukrainians are advancing, albeit slowly.
One of the major operational challenges for both militaries is force generation in the face of constant attrition. With a line of contact several hundred miles long, the two combatants have to maintain solid lines with adequately manned units on the front while also training and preparing new, uncommitted formations to exploit tactical successes where they occur and thus achieve operational breakthroughs.
The Ukrainians seem to be doing this much more effectively than their adversaries, with their surprise counteroffensive last fall being a prime example of their ability to play defense while preparing a big offense.
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Expert Biography: A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
