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Dr. James Holmes: The Naval Diplomat - 19FortyFive

Look to Korea to See How China Might Fight in the Pacific Today

U.S. Navy Aircraft Carrier
120118-N-QH883-003 INDIAN OCEAN, (Jan 18, 2012) The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) transits the Indian Ocean. Abraham Lincoln is in the U.S. 7th Fleet area of responsibility as part of a deployment to the western Pacific and Indian Oceans to support coalition efforts. (U.S. Navy photo by Chief Mass Communication Specialist Eric S. Powell/ Released)

This week I returned to the mothership for the first time in a dozen years, to take part in a conference at Vanderbilt University asking whether Chinese strategy is “universal or unique?”

My answer: Chinese maritime strategy is novel but not unique. Chinese strategists excel at combining and recombining the same concepts available to everyone, and to do so in ways that often baffle outsiders. Confounding prospective foes is a feature for them, not a bug.

The presentations made me think. Thinking is good.

China, the Korean War, and Modern Warfare

During the proceedings something dawned on me with regard to the Korean War. Namely that the forgotten war could furnish future combatants clues as to how the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) may wage war in maritime Asia. The China seas and Western Pacific comprise an oceanic battleground, but then the Korean Peninsula south of the “narrow neck” that roughly coincides with the inter-Korean border is a maritime theater in its own right.

Sea power can range all across it.

In geostrategic terms southern Korea is a half-island grafted onto continental Asia. In effect it’s part of the first island chain that plays such a prominent part in regional politics and strategy. It’s worthwhile mining the war for lessons applicable to today. The main thing PLA commanders must have learned from studying the conflict: it’s hard and perilous to fight on an island unless you command the air and sea around it.

Fresh off its victory in the Chinese Civil War, Communist China intervened on the peninsula to stem General Douglas MacArthur’s offensive short of the Yalu River. Whether Mao Zedong’s motives for intervening in the forgotten war were more strategically offensive or strategically defensive in outlook is debatable. Mao (and his successors) invariably cast their strategies as defensive. And, of course, the founding Chinese Communist Party chairman was an exponent of the doctrine—which verged and verges on dogma for the PLA—of “active defense.”

Long story short, active defense is a weaker combatant’s method for flipping the script on on stronger foe. The weak start off on the strategic defensive, buying time to tap their military potential. In the meantime they seek out opportunities to engage and annihilate isolated enemy units, enfeebling the foe by increments. Active defense portends strategic defense through offensive tactics and operations. It narrows, then reverses, an adverse military balance.

To borrow from boxing legend Jack Dempsey, the best strategic defense for Maoists is a good tactical offense.

But it can be a forward defense as well. China is not strategically autistic. It need not—and will not—mindlessly rerun the Maoist script in all future contingencies. Nor will it forever condemn itself to resisting foreign forces that invade the country. It will adapt time-honored practices to the realities of great power. Even for a contender with China’s leanings, then, it is possible to dispatch forces into unguarded or lightly guarded geographic space and defend it by harnessing active-defense principles.

In fact, the Prussian martial guru Moltke the Elder once pronounced strategic offense coupled with tactical defense the strongest form of warfare. You grab something and hold it—daring an assailant to come and take it while fighting at a tactical disadvantage. In warfare as in ordinary life, possession is nine-tenths of the law.

For Communist China, fighting in Korea deployed active defense with an offensive twist. But the expedition didn’t flout Maoist orthodoxy. Nothing in Mao’s writings proscribes going on the strategic offensive. In fact, the very point of active defense is to set the conditions to unleash a conventional counteroffensive culminating in a crushing battlefield victory. Active defense simply defers the counteroffensive till a more propitious time, once the correlation of forces has come to favor the active defender. There’s no reason to postpone the offensive if the PLA already commands battlefield parity or superiority. You can skip the strategic defensive.

That was the case in northern Korea after MacArthur and his U.S./UN army overshot their ability to sustain offensive operations. Intervening in Korea was not some outlandish abandonment of active defense.

But that doesn’t mean the campaign was fated to succeed. It’s no accident that Chinese forces fared relatively well during the opening phase of the intervention late in 1950. Northern Korea, a predominantly continental theater, constituted the arena for the ground-war phase. The Chinese host was thrown back when it made its own lunge toward the far reaches of the peninsula. Sea power—carrier aviation, ship-launched ordnance, amphibious forces—can make its weight felt far more easily south of the narrow neck than in the wide, mountainous north.

And it did. The PLA had little ability to oppose allied maritime operations around southern Korea, either by dispatching barely existent seagoing forces or by using shore-based forces to sling antiship and antiair weapons out to sea. That’s a deficit the PLA has worked feverishly—and with a considerable measure of success—to correct over the past quarter-century or thereabouts.

Our Chinese friends are students of history, and they do their homework. You can bet they will do their utmost to avoid repeating the mistakes their forebears committed in Korea.

Maybe Korea shouldn’t be a forgotten war after all.

Author Expertise and Biography

Dr. James Holmes, a 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, holds the J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the U.S. Naval War College and served on the faculty of the University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs. A former U.S. Navy surface-warfare officer, he was the last gunnery officer in history to fire a battleship’s big guns in anger, during the first Gulf War in 1991. He earned the Naval War College Foundation Award in 1994, signifying the top graduate in his class. His books include Red Star over the Pacific, an Atlantic Monthly Best Book of 2010 and a fixture on the Navy Professional Reading List. General James Mattis deems him “troublesome.”

Written By

James Holmes holds the J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the Naval War College and served on the faculty of the University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs. A former U.S. Navy surface-warfare officer, he was the last gunnery officer in history to fire a battleship’s big guns in anger, during the first Gulf War in 1991. He earned the Naval War College Foundation Award in 1994, signifying the top graduate in his class. His books include Red Star over the Pacific, an Atlantic Monthly Best Book of 2010 and a fixture on the Navy Professional Reading List. General James Mattis deems him “troublesome.”

5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. David Chang

    March 13, 2023 at 9:59 am

    God bless people in the world.

    Thank you, Doctor.

    Yes, fighting on a peninsula or island is very difficult, army worry about the air strike from enemy, so the Communist Party fight South Korea in the difficult terrain of Korea peninsula.

    And coastal combat is more difficult. Therefore, the CCP know that they don’t have decisive force, so they learn and plagiarize technologies from many countries to accomplish the ultimate care stated in the Communist Manifesto.

    Tactics of CCP Air Force are based on pack attack capability to replace single defense, so active defense is also offensive tactic. They are proud of promoting Darwin’s thought to people in Asia with pack tactics.

    God bless America.

  2. Jim

    March 13, 2023 at 12:28 pm

    Any regional war versus China, say over Taiwan, will end up being World War Three.

    A shooting war against China where 3 or 4 U. S. Navy ships are sunk puts America on the verge of declaring and/or going to war against China.

    China sinking a U. S. aircraft carrier, with 5000 men & women on board, will, guarantee, the start of World War Three.

    With all the Warhawks both in government & in the body politic, how long would it be after the sinking of a U. S. aircraft carrier before the U. S. is in a flat out, full on, unlimited war with China?

    How long before it goes nuclear?

    In addition, if for any reason the U. S. attacks the Chinese mainland… expect America’s mainland to be attacked… expect mirror treatment… from China.

    Any Chinese attack on the U. S. mainland will result in World War Three.

    Taiwan is not independent, it’s part of China, as the U. S. has agreed to and does to this very day… look @ the U. S. State Department’s website… “One China.”

    Taiwan is not a Vital National Security Interest of the United States… instead, it’s the “fatal attraction” which will cause World War III.

    Stop now… while we still can.

    We need to bite the bullet and tell Taiwan we don’t support independence, rather, we will continue to support Taiwan as a self-governing island, as part of one nation-state… China!

    This is the responsible foreign policy position to take… box # 2, war over Taiwan is a war the U. S. would likely lose… but even if the U. S. won… it would be a pyric victory because for the rest of the 21st Century the U. S. would be dealing with a sullen, seething China looking for any pretext to hit the U. S. squarely in the nose or worse.

    War over Taiwan is the worst possible scenario for U. S. Vital National Security Interests. Period. Stop.

    Anybody who says different is naive, ill informed, or reckless… with America’s best interest.

  3. Joe Comment

    March 13, 2023 at 5:51 pm

    “Taiwan is part of China.” Yes, but what is China? The Mainland likes to pretend that the Chinese civil war ended and their side won. But then where is the final treaty and the signed surrender?

    Reactivating the war is not a good idea. That’s why the US does not and has never encouraged Taiwan to try to invade the Mainland. The Mainland should reciprocate this by looking for a political solution to the cross-straits question.

    They might start by making a complete reversal of their recent crackdown in Hong Kong, and revoking their latest Taiwan White Paper and replacing it with a new one, based on much greater realism about what is politically acceptable to the people of Taiwan.

  4. Commentar

    March 14, 2023 at 9:09 am

    In the famous korean conflict, macArthur sneered at the peoples volunteer armies and branded them ‘peasant armies’ and in a way he was correct.

    Many, or all of them grew up in an atmosphere of constant endless war, and there were reports of shortages of many things, including rifles.

    Today, things have completely changed. Especially after the massively grand demo of shock & awe warfare by USA and allies in the middle east.

    Today, the chinese possess enough military firepower to reduce top forward pacific bases to a cinder the moment hostilities erupt.

    That could rapidly escalate the confrontation or conflict into a runaway condition, and so, US military commanders in the pacific must never be in charge of US foreign policy.

    But sadly, US is a top warplanning nation today, and so generals and admirals are likely to be in the driver’s seat in any coming US-china shooting war starting from day one.

    In the totally famous nam war, during the very difficult months of 1968, general Earle Wheeler asked his sidekick general westmoreland whether it was ‘time to use nukes.’

    If those people are (still) in the driver’s seat during a US-china shooting war (2025 ? yeah ?, no), it’s almost guaranteed the pacific forces will resort to use of nukes.

    Therefore, korea is not gonna be representative of any coming pacific fighting involving the chinese.

    It will be like opening the gates of megiddo with the end result of world witnessing the rise and fall of babylin.

  5. David Chang

    March 14, 2023 at 6:44 pm

    God bless people in the world.

    South Korea and Australia are preparing to build the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and nuclear-powered missile submarines, both the South Korea and Australia military officers understand that strategic deterrence is the future nuclear war, so they want to have counteroffensive weapons. Even though USN have detailed plans and sufficient training, the people of USS CVN-84 let themselves into hands of God.

    God bless America.

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