Which Republican would Democrats prefer to face in 2024?: It seems likely the Republican candidate in 2024 will either be former President Donald Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. But which of them would the Democrats rather face?
Trump or DeSantis?
Most political observers are expecting a Republican presidential nominating contest fight between former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Trump seems to be leading in most major national polls, but DeSantis is showing strength in the early-voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
Furthermore, the primary is still in its early stages. DeSantis hasn’t even declared his candidacy yet, and there remains a strong possibility that Trump will be indicted, possibly more than once.
Democrats Have Ideas
Who comes out of the primary will be determined by Republican voters. But this week, FiveThirtyEight asked another question: Who would Democrats prefer to face in a general election matchup?
Some polls last year asked Democrats who would they prefer to face of the two top Republicans.
“Among Democrats, DeSantis had an edge over Trump — particularly when respondents were given only those two candidates to choose from,” FiveThirtyEight said. “When it comes to the broader electorate, an average of FiveThirtyEight’s polling of imperfect, hypothetical, head-to-head matchups of each man against President Biden, meanwhile, shows DeSantis with a slightly better chance than Trump.”
It’s worth noting that, since DeSantis hasn’t started running yet, there’s a large percentage of people who don’t follow politics, who might not know much about the Florida governor, positive or negative. And the site noted that this is based on surveys from months ago, as they were conducted in late 2022.
The site also showed a polling average with President Biden leading Trump 43.9 percent to 42.2 percent in a head-to-head general election matchup, and Biden leading DeSantis 42.3 percent to 42.1 percent. So even though general polls show Biden with a larger lead over Trump than DeSantis, Democrats seem to prefer DeSantis.
“Democrats’ slight preference for DeSantis over Trump — even if DeSantis might currently be better positioned to beat Biden — could be about one simple thing: Democrats really, really don’t want to deal with the former president again and might not currently be thinking in terms of who’s more beatable,” the site said.
There are reasons to think Democrats would rather face DeSantis.
“I think most Democrats would be terrified of another Trump presidency, but I also think that most Democrats would not be happy about a DeSantis presidency and maybe think DeSantis is a lot like Trump but ‘more competent’ or something,” Hans Noel, a professor of government at Georgetown University, told FiveThirtyEight. “I don’t know if that’s the right interpretation, but it’s definitely one that a lot of Democrats have.”
Noel added that while DeSantis would appear less likely to shatter political norms in the way Trump has, DeSantis might need to act more Trump-like if he has any hope of defeating the former president in the primaries.
“In order to win the primary, he’ll need to outflank Trump on some of these culture-war issues that the MAGA constituency wants. But the more that he makes appeals to those voters, the more likely it is that he alienates Democrats in the process,” the professor told FiveThirtyEight.
Also this week, per RealClearPolitics, Trump’s team made it clear that anyone who works for DeSantis’ campaign will be blackballed from having any role in a future Trump Administration. This even includes staffers who worked on DeSantis’ recent book tour.
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“It’s a time for choosing,” a source close to Trump told the outlet “If you work for Ron DeSantis’ presidential race, you will not work for the Trump campaign or in the Trump White House.”
This might, however, leave Trump with slim pickings among prospective staffers should he return to the White House, especially after so many former staffers either broke with the former president or even ended up testifying against him in various legal proceedings.
Expertise and Experience: Stephen Silver is a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive. He is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.
