For Donald Trump’s enemies, there could be strategic value in going after him on the state level.
It’s time to entertain at least the question: What if prosecutors from either New York or Georgia win a conviction and Trump wins the election? It’s not your typical win-win situation.
Trump became the first president to be indicted and arraigned for an alleged crime. But what if it’s not the last unprecedented event?
Donald Trump and a Look to History
In the 1920 presidential campaign, Socialist Party candidate Eugene Debs ran for president from a prison cell, serving what was supposed to be a 10-year sentence under the sedition law of Woodrow Wilson’s regime.
Debs, a big personality, scored about 1 million votes from behind bars, or 3.5 percent of the vote.
It seems unlikely Trump would actually be sentenced to prison in either the Stormy Daniels hush money case, where he was indicted, or in the Fulton County, Georgia case, where he is potentially facing another indictment in the election fraud probe.
But Alvin Bragg and Fani Willis are ambitious and vengeful prosecutors.
Think it Through
For this thought exercise, let’s set aside special counsel Jack Smith’s investigation into both the classified documents and the Jan. 6 matters. The reason for ignoring the federal case is that if Trump is elected to a second term in 2024–and don’t say it can’t happen–he could pardon himself for a federal crime.
Because of federalism, a president does NOT have the power to pardon anyone for a state crime. Only a governor could do that. Maybe Georgia’s Republican Gov. Brian Kemp would have a soft spot for Trump (even that’s questionable). But New York Gov. Kathy Hochul most assuredly would not.
It may seem improbable to some that Trump could win again in 2024, period. It seems highly, highly improbable that Trump could be convicted and get elected.
But it’s less of a stretch than you think.
A poll in late March showed Trump neck and neck with President Joe Biden in a possible 2024 rematch. The poll came before the official indictment, but after it was widely reported in the news that a New York indictment was imminent. So, it’s not likely the indictment changed much.
The economy could worsen. Or worse for the Democrats, as unpleasant as it is to bring up, Biden doesn’t look good. Vice President Kamala Harris could be the Democratic nominee and would be easy for any Republican–including Trump–to defeat.
Debs, a socialist third-party candidate, won 1 million votes in 1920 from a prison cell. Trump pulled a rabbit out of his hat once before in 2016. He almost did in 2020. Who’s to say the odds-defying Trump can’t eke out a victory in 2024 from behind bars? Is that probable? No. But it’s assuredly plausible.
Some of Trump’s harshest critics have scoffed at the indictment over the Stormy Daniels case. If the public doesn’t take it all that seriously, they might well consider what their 401Ks looked like and vote for the guy at Rikers.
So, what the heck happens in this scenario? It’s uncharted waters. It could be a constitutional crisis.
Would Chief Justice John Roberts head to the prison to swear Trump into office?
Democrats nationally might rally behind Hochul. She would play the part of the party’s hero–perhaps hoping to jockey for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination–and refuse clemency.
Republicans in Congress would demand the will of the electorate be honored and that the elected president of the United States be freed to govern, and accuse Democrats of being undemocratic.
This could be a federal-state stand-off.
This would put the United States in the category of Brazil, where last year former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva–who had been jailed for corruption–came back to get re-elected. But even here, da Silva had been released from prison.
Cooler heads should prevail on the left, and even if convicted, he won’t actually be sentenced to jail time. But when has the Trump-hating Left ever shown restraint?
Barbara Joanna Lucas is a writer and researcher in Northern Virginia. She has been a healthcare professional, political blogger, is a proud dog mom, and news junkie. Follow her on Twitter @BasiaJL.
