The more crowded the GOP field is, the better Donald Trump’s chances of securing the 2024 GOP nomination for president.
Why?
Because the “number of winner-take-all GOP primary states increased from seven to 17,” CNN’s John Avlon explained.
“This is a big deal because winner-take-all states allow polarizing candidates to get ahead even if they don’t win a majority of votes.” And no one is more polarizing than Donald Trump.
Here’s what Avlon means.
How winner-take-all states work
In a winner-take-all state, whoever achieves a plurality of the votes takes all of the state’s delegates.
So say that, in South Carolina, for example, Trump comes in first place with 35 percent of the votes. It’s far from breaching the majority threshold of 50 percent. And 65 percent of voters voted for someone other than Trump. But under the winner-take-all format, the plurality winner takes all the delegates. Meanwhile, if DeSantis had finished with 30 percent of the votes, he would be awarded exactly zero percent of the delegates.
The alternative to winner-takes-all would be proportional representation. Under proportional representation were Trump to win 35 percent of the votes and DeSantis to win 30 percent of the votes, Trump would win 35 percent of the delegates and DeSantis would win 30 percent of the delegates.
The divvying of delegates would more accurately reflect the desires of the voters and moving forward the race would be much closer.
Trump benefits from winner-takes-all
Trump used the winner-takes-all format to his advantage in 2016, when Trump showed up at the convention in Cleveland, having won just 45 percent of the primary voters “but boasting 63 percent of the delegates.”
“Unless things change,” Avlon noted, “Trump could have an even greater edge in the 2024 primaries.” And according to Avlon that should not be allowed to happen.
There’s still time, Avlon implored to the states, to change from winner-takes-all to proportional representation. It would be the right thing to do, Avlon said. Because it would more accurately reflect the will of the voters. Yet, I get the impression Avlon doesn’t care all that much if the GOP primary voters’ will is represented accurately. My impression is that Avlon wants anyone but Trump to win the GOP nomination. There’s still time.
My question is why? I’m no Trump supporter. But do we really want Ron DeSantis or Mike Pence to win over Trump?
In my view, Democrat’s opposition to Trump has become obsessive and all-consuming – to the point where it may be detrimental. For example, I’m not convinced Trump is the worst GOP option. Democrats operate, of course, as if Trump is the worst-case scenario as if Trump were the thing to be avoided at all costs.
And while I don’t relish the premise of a second Trump term, I have significant reservations about Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, et cetera. And I think if Democrats were able to look beyond the headlines and the history and the hyperbole – and focus on the hard data, the policies – I don’t think guys like Avlon would be up on TV imploring states to switch to a format that makes a DeSantis nomination more likely.
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Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.
