Sad Reality: The Ukraine War Is Now Going Russia’s Way

It really is amazing how every article by Daniel Davis reads like it was written by the Kremlin Press Office. No, the war is not going Russia’s way and virtually no authorities think that; not even Russian ones. Why is Mr. Davis even a contributor here?

Daniel,
I’m surprised that a man with your background could so completely misunderstand the facts of the war. Russia is clearly on its way to losing this war, based on the lack of replacement troops, lack of training, lack of supply and logistics, lack of medical care for wounded, international sanctions that will destroy the economy and prevent the resupply of technical parts like chips for modern weapons, grossly poor or totally lacking leadership and field coordination, grossly poor morale, lack of food and water for the troops, war crimes not only against Ukrainians but also fellow Russian soldiers, rebellion inside Russia, internal squabbles between the military and the Wagner Group, etc. etc. I could go on but I think that makes the case.
The only question in my mind is whether or not Putin will resort to the use of tactical nukes when the Ukrainian offensive crushes the Russian troops in the field. Keep in mind that Ukraine is fighting for its right to survive, to steal a line from the movie “Independence Day,” so there can be no end to the war until Russia is defeated.

Mr. Davis has been saying the war in Ukraine has been “going Russia’s way” since day one. Did we expect anything different today? LOL.

Does anyone else think 1945 is a Russian misinformation site?

Russian disinformation

If his definition of success is loosing 500 soldiers, 5 tanks, 10 artillery pieces and 4 ammodumps a day, then how would we define Russia loosing?
Biden’s boiling the frog strategy continues, but I think the Russian frog is boiling more. This war remains insane and is a fratricidal war with both sides overall not winning. I am not sure that the West has deserved Ukraine. Maybe Prigozin will convince the Kremlin to declare victory and leave Ukraine in exchange for keeping Crimea

“After repositioning its forces, Russia Captured Mariupol, Lyman, Popasna, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk.”

There is a fallacy here in that none of the forces taken from the Kiev front were available to participate in any of these battles. Mariupol was surrounded by the seventh day of the war, and it’s capture in fact therefore had nothing to do with any other action. The capture of Lyman and Popasna were owed to simply making it a priority and not to anything else. The fall of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk were the result of Russia’s brief “artillery summer” where it enjoyed near total artillery supremacy that it has lacked since that time as the West decided to begin the delivery of heavy weaponry.

“When Russia was faced with city battles – Kyiv, Kharkiv City, and Kherson City – they chose to abandon each while establishing more defensible defensive positions elsewhere…By withdrawing from Kyiv and Kharkiv in the first month of war and from Kherson City last fall, Russia was able to relocate its force into more defensible positions, preserving its personnel from the crucible of a grueling defensive fight in urban terrain.”

This has to be the most absurd statement of military idiocy I’ve seen written in the press. It doesn’t take much of a brilliant mind or much reading in military history – or even much more than an acquaintance with Sun Tzu to know that a city is perhaps the most fortifiable and defensible terrain that an army can have access to. If you are going to choose to fight a defensive battle anywhere, then fighting it in a city is almost certainly your strongest option. Heavily built buildings are military nightmare to assault. Fortifying a city is one of the great military equalizers, allowing a force to hold off a much more powerful one. This is particularly true in the case of seeking to resist artillery bombardment, which is much harder to resist in open fields than it is in areas with heavy structures. It’s harder to build bunkers in open fields than its beneath rubble and heavily built buildings. This is basic stuff out of the army manuals of combat.

Russia has rarely been on the defensive. They didn’t abandon Kiev to go on the defensive or to assume defensive positions. And they didn’t abandon Kherson because it wasn’t defensible, but because Ukraine threatened to cut its supply lines.

And Ukraine’s major cities are places like Kiev, Zaphorizhihia, Kherson, Kharkiv, Somy, Chernihiv, and Mykolayiv – places it has successfully defended. Bakhmut is not one of its major cities. Bakhmut is the 57th largest city in Ukraine. An argument can be made for abandoning it in January, but there are several clear reasons why it did not. The first is that it was obviously defensible and Russia was taking enormous casualties trying to take it. And the second was that if Ukraine fell back, the it meant subjecting even more of its infrastructure and some actually more significant cities to Russia’s brutal area shelling. People actually live behind the front lines you know. Ukraine has conducted a textbook defense, giving ground slowly and falling back whenever not falling back would have meant taking unacceptable casualties.

As far as the casualties go, no one really knows at present, but many analysts believe that Russia took between three and five times as many casualties as Ukraine during the fighting at Bakhmut. While you can believe whatever you want, one thing is obviously true – Russia not only required an operational pause after taking the city they seem to have given up entirely on going any further. The last act that they did when taking the city was blow up all the bridges leading out of and into the city, thereby eliminating the claimed strategic reason for taking the city in the first place – that it was a transportation hub.

At this point we have no way of knowing whether or not Ukraine is exhausted, but we can be absolutely certain of one thing – the Russian military is exhausted and is at this point no longer has full operational capability at anywhere along the front line. It appears that the Russian strategy based on the last six months is to play for a stalemate, digging in everywhere in a desperate hope that they can hold at least the land they still retain and be able to claim some sort of victory for domestic political purposes.

How much did Russia pay you to advance the idea that Ukraine should surrender?

I am not sure there is a singke western analyst that understood this war. This war was not about capturing all of ukraine or kiev or kharkov from day 1.Kiev and Kharkov were distractions. This war was about capturing the landbridge to Crimea – an objective reached in the first 4-6 months. After that Russia’s aims switched to holding the landbridge and absorbing the newly avquired territories. This may be a phased approach. Or the landbridge to crimea could be the end . Time will tell

How does this war put US security in greater risk? I know it certainly put worth of America’s word in the gutter. In 1996 in Budapest US, Great Britain, Russia and Ukraine signed a document promising Ukraine territorial integrity in exchange for its nuclear and missile arsenal. So now you are going to say “Well.. We didn’t mean we would go to war for it”. And where does author gets his casualty numbers? Ukrainians fight better, smarter, with truth on their side. And they are defending. Since when defending side has higher casualties than attacker? Russia has no trained military professionals left. Now they have mostly conscripts who don’t know what they are fighting for. But Ukrainians do. I guess author is in favor of America joining the “feckless club”. If it does – power will shift to Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. Those countries know what Russia is and their security is in grave danger right now. Unlike this imaginary future risk for US.

I’m sure where Daniel Davis has been for the past 15 months. Instead of sensible arguments, he writes a novel without any reasonable evidence. He has consistently been wrong for the past 15 months and he wants to continue his absurd arguments. I understand we have to pay attention to any dissenting voices, but this is just a novel and insane arguments. This kind of arguments are pointless.

Russian losses in Bachmut are widely assessed to be two or three times higher, as Ukraine was defending and rotating much better trained troops, while russians sent waives of poorly trained recruits.
It’s true that those proportions may still not favor Ukraine (estimated ca. 8-10k Ukrainians dead or seriously wounded vs 20k Russians) as they have much smaller population. But Russia has no magic reserves, if they wanted to – the would have to recruit new people and train them from zero.
I don’t understand why in US interest would be NOT to guarantee Ukraine’s safety. That would mean US would not respect Budapest Memorandum, it would render US security guarantees meaningless. It would be the best argument for any dictator to produce nuclear weapons and start new wars. That’s horrible perspective for US and the World.
Ukraine without security guarantees would have no chance to rebuilt – it would turn into depopulated bankrupt state at the NATO boarder, easy pray for future invasion. I really can’t see how giving up and letting Russia in somehow serves US interests.

Another well-founded article from mr. Davis. The following phrase is particularly wise to note: “….means the U.S. must avoid the trap of agreeing to any type of security guarantee for Ukraine. History is too filled with examples of hasty agreements to end fighting that unwittingly lay the foundation for future conflicts”…

I am astonished at how easily Mr Davis wants to sacrifice the Ukrainians to the Russians. Russian state media these days is filled with violent, murderous and often even genocidal rhetoric. It is also clear that many dream of taking all of Ukraine. There cannot be a deal – unless you are ok with looking the other way while Russia commits crimes against humanity on a massive scale.

Thankfully, the situation in Ukraine is likely not nearly as bad as Mr Davis paints it. The idea of this endless Russian war machine is just that – an idea. Russia faces huge internal political and practical constraints. There is no endless source of manpower; if there were, Russia would have long ago won this thing. There is no endless source of military equipment; if there were, Russia would not be pulling T-62s and T-55s out of storage.

Russia is fighting a war of choice – and wars of choice lose popular and elite support if they go badly. Eventually people want to give up. Just ask Americans about Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Or the Soviets in Afghanistan.

Ukraine is fighting a war of survival. They are way more motivated than the Russians. There is no risk of the Ukrainian government losing popular and elite support for the war: very few Ukrainians are willing to put their lives in Russian hands. Not after Bucha. Not after Mariupol. Not after the kidnapping of Ukrainian children. Not after the terror attacks on Ukrainian cities. Not after all the genocidal rhetoric coming from Russia.

Ukraine is also getting more and more western military support – increasingly so from Europe. Encouragingly, both left-wing and right-wing populist European leaders, who were the most likely to stay out of this conflict, also largely support the war effort in Ukraine, most visibly so in Poland and Italy. Only Hungary – the vilest government in the EU – is not in on the war effort, and is isolated. The West is digging in for the long run.

I do not know how this war will end. But I am fairly confident that both Ukraine and the West will hang in there and that Russia will eventually give up, in one way or the other.

Pretty quiet…
Ukraine reports are skewed for months. Russias move across river makes it hard to attack and the Ukrainian obsession on bahkmut is allowing russia to concentrate on their forces.

yeah, yeah, yeah. This “expert” had arleady given a forecast last year. Nothin was even close to reality.
So, stop this pro Kremlin hidden propaganda, please

The AFU was certainly admired by Yevgeny Prigozhin for the tough 244 day battles for Bakhmut. The Ukraine army has shown all along they certainly are no slouches by any military standards. Evidence shows that the Russian army was not well prepared for the Ukraine defense once the SVO commenced. The Minsk II Accords paid off being used to stall Russia after the annexation of Crimea, in 2014, giving NATO more time to train up Ukraine forces according to Angela Merkel.

Military strategists argue at the onset of the SVO that the 40 mile Russian convoy of equipment, mostly in ill repair. Was staged outside of Kiev as a feint, to draw-off Ukrainian forces from Donbass to defend the Capitol. Maybe? Later as the war developed. Russian retreats were bitterly contested to Putin by both Kadyrov and Prigozhin. Likely resulting in the replacement of several Russian military generals in a show of Putin’s authority.

The metrics have always favored Russia in spite of Western intervention and weapons support for Ukraine. At this point to argue that the war should have never started is a mute point. The issue now becomes how much longer should the West keep propping up the Ukrainian defense efforts? In expectation of a victory. The proposed increase in US defense spending in spite of the debt ceiling negotiations is not a good sign the Biden administration will back off any time soon. National security, through US interventionist foreign policy, there is none.

The territorial gains in the Donbass by Russia are not likely to be used for barter in peace negotiations. They will be Russia’s for keeps including Crimea. Kiev’s current hope will be that the annexed oblasts are the extent of Russia’s land grab, and Putin spares Odessa. Perhaps decades in the future ‘a kinder gentler’ Russia will release the annexed lands back to Ukraine. Zelenskyy needs to realize this and the West needs to insist on his capitulation. Negotiating with Russia to rebuild Ukraine in exchange for lifting economic and trade sanctions, and in time relations with the West to be normalized.

Otherwise escalations will continue to spiral out of control with the high possibility of morphing into a third world war. Involving more American treasure. Like our sons and daughters.

Here’s another hint. Ukraine warned Russian citizens illegally occupying Crimea yesterday that they have only left the Kerch Bridge standing to allow civilians to leave Crimea before they die. That wasn’t bravado. Second. Remember how Ukraine sank the Moskva last year. Essentially a Harpoon (or equivalent, I don’t recall) from land. You can launch a harpoon from anywhere on land or at sea if you have a “rowboat big enough” to launch one. Such as, oh say, a Ukrainian cargo ship sitting 100 kms off Sevastopol at anchor waiting for its legitimate docking slot to pick up or deliver grain somewhere. Happens every day. Or from land during the counterattack, which will begin any day now. The counter attack began on 9 May with deception and the actual major attack is almost ready. My earlier post will tell you how. Once the real combat action starts, I’d be surprised if it lasts 7 days before every Russian in Ukraine and Crimea is dead or a POW and Ukraine has won everything back including Crimea, and the entire Black Sea Fleet has been sunk. слава украине слава героям

Who can remember why at this late date, but rather than a “Russian disinformation site,” my impression for a long time after the war began was that 1945 was more a cheerleader for escalated warfare against Russia. But neither view, or the middle of them, either, makes the analysis in this article more true or less true.

What I am amazed at in this day of drones and governments knowing every time you buy toothpaste or shoes with all the information websites gather on all of us, is why there is no independent source out there that can overcome all government’s propaganda and just tell us who is winning and why. Doesn’t AP or Reuters have a budget to send up 100 drones or use a zillion cell phone cameras to bring in the truth.

The posted comments on this article seem only to parrot a hope or constitute a misdirection. Putin has done a lot worse than some expected, but Russia hasn’t accomplished much on the battlefield since it took Berlin, which was a long time ago. So who exactly was expecting a better performance than in Afghanistan–Russia’s, not ours.

On the other hand, I read on another site today with Summer just around the corner, how Ukraine’s vaunted “Spring Offensive” wasn’t really ever intended for Spring. That could be excuse making. And Biden’s F-16 decision might be desperation, not escalation.

There are a whole lot of dead Ukrainians. Sure, hindsight is easy and it isn’t over yet, but will those hailing Ukraine’s great victory in their posts here be happy if this ends in a negotiated resolution that is the same as could have been had pre-war with no deaths.

In the meantime, maybe Ukraine will take Moscow by winter. Others have tried. Maybe this time.

While it goes without saying that Putin initiated deaths through this war are inhuman, it is not clear that he is losin.

It’s quite sad to see the vast majority of comments here are based on nothing but vacuous claptrap, wishful fantasising, and ignorance at a galactic level.

Americans are the most propagandized people on earth, and they don’t even know it. They actually believe Putin woke up on February 24 last year and decided to invade “Unprovoked”(sic).

No — the RF economy isn’t “collapsing”. No, the RF is not running out of ammo, equipment, planes, tanks, missiles, bombs, artillery, men, et al. But Ukr. is.

And don’t get me started on the position of the trillion dollar US Department of Attack, a cesspit of graft, corruption and the mega rich.

Who told you all this rubbish you believe? US CORPNEWS. The US government? (which would lie about the date if it suited its purposes).

The US is going to lose its proxy war — though it does seem determined to drag the rest of the world into a nuclear exchange and WW3.

If not Ukr., China next. The US neocon thirst for vile imperialism and hegemony will not be sated, apparently. Not until they are all cast down into the depths.

Davis should check the news today as that fire in Berdyansk from the likely Storm Shadow strike is still burning with video showing ammo still cooking off.

Similar thing happened at the 1st Storm Shadow strike in Luhansk. At that site, a Russian MP was visiting, and the guy gave an interview on camera in front of the rubble the rubble and the sound of ammo cooking off in the background… and he was still trying to claim it was a civilian site.

Bold face lying is a feature of Russian strategy, but they get caught at it often. The Russians put out the USV video of one their navy destroyed, and claimed all USVs were defeated. Then Ukraine put one out of a USV right up to the moment of impact with the Ivan Khurs, which was clearly hit by at least one Ukrainian USV.

The only question is what was the result. If the charge went off the same way as intended we can be sure of heavy damage. Now some Russian Milblogger sources are reporting exactly that.

Other video this morning shows Footage of two drones waking up the residents of Russian Krasnodar
with rather large explosions. That’s hundreds of km from the front line. Other targets in that area of Russia, such as fuel tanks, have been blowing up fairly regularly lately.

On the EW front, Russian “Veteran’s Notes” Telegram channel describes a problem preventing Russians from using counter battery fire – ‘there’s too much Russian EW which suppresses Russian drones (mavics) preventing artillery adjusting. Meanwhile, Ukrainians are switching to other frequencies en masse to bypass Russian EW.’

And that’s without even discussing their stockpile of military grade jam proof drones.

Bottom line: Davis is so far behind the curve on what is actually going on it boggles the mind that he continues to post in this way.

Russia was never going ‘to lose’ his conflict. Putin can escalate the level of military destruction as necessary. Western military leaders know this but the civilian leaders can’t accept it and have put themselves in a corner with no viable exit.

‘Russia has to be defeated or else!’. Actually , eastern Ukraine didn’t matter in the greater scheme of geopolitics until western leaders gave it symbolic weight. Henry Kissinger warned decades ago never to get involved in conflicts in Eastern Europe as there are no good outcomes. 75 years of astute western leaders recognizing this astute policy has crumbled.

Interesting article … it might be good to mention the appointment of General Surovikin (sp?) to the command of the Donbas forces in the latter part of 2022 … it’s my understanding that he was instrumental in insisting that the Rus forces withdraw from the city of Kherson (which was situated at the narrow end of a tenuous salient difficult to re-supply) to re-group after the shambles of the initial invasion. No expert, but I believe one could see a gradual strengthening of the command structure afterward, with gradually intensifying small-scale Rus probes designed (imho) to re-train the troops & give them confidence.

BTW, as to the ‘the authour is a Putin-puppet’ tropes in some of the comments above … what? Grow up? Get a life? Maybe stop hyperventilating and do some thinking.

I couldn’t stomach reading the same old commentaries from the followers of this blog (maybe later), but just wanted to say thank you for the updated evaluation of the war. The western media loved the Wagner’s leader’s admission of 20,000 deaths but none published his estimate of 50,000 UAR deaths. Sad. Time will tell.

I must admit, the boy inside this man wants to see the best Russsian tankers and fighters confront the best of West just to put some of this childish rhetoric to bed. How stupid it all seems now that America once had over 7,000 nuclear warheads stored in European countries and Russia had few if any stored in its Warsaw pact partner countries (1 U.S. nuke for every 5 soviet tanks). Who is the real aggressor in this conflict and who ultimately is fighting for its own survival. I think the reason the new confrontation with China is developing is because even the most ignorant American citizen can now understand that Russia was never a threat to Europe or the United States. Time for Hollywood to craft a new evil villain… but wait, Hollywood is making $$$$ off of China now.

Defeatist ! The US prints trillions of dollars out of thin air for whatever purposes it deems necessary. Giving some billions of dollars to Ukraine will not threaten the security of the US and you know it. You should be writing for FT, Tass or Pravda. I’m sure the would be happy to have you.

While unlikely, it’s not entirely impossible that much of Russia’s early presumed bad performance” on the battlefield were little more than feints who’s sole purpose was to draw in western money, materiel, resources (including American soldiers) to the slaughter.

How capable is America now compared to 2 years ago in defending Taiwan? Financially? militarily? Industrially?

How capable is Europe in that potential endeavor?

Germany’s economy stands at the abyss of huge raw material price increases. The rest of Europe follows.

America itself allowed itself to get sucked into an unwinnable war far once again. This time with a very real superpower capable of keeping American firepower at bay.

Russia is slowly strangling the Ukrainian baby in the bathtub and America’s governing class can only howl at the moon.

Putin may be the greatest strategic thinker in 100 years.

The Ukrainian trolls here aside, American military officers agree with Davis here that Ukraine is being attrited. This is a matter of military science.

Reading the comments below Daniel Davis’ piece, one is reminded of Soren Kierkegaard’s words:

“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.”

Those who disparage and mock Russia in this war would do well to remember Montgomery’s words to the House of Lords: “Rule 1, on page 1 of the book of war, is: “Do not march on Moscow.” Various people have tried it, Napoleon and Hitler, and it is no good.”

Years ago, while reading de Segur’s “Napoleon’s Russian Campaign”, the thought came to me: “If you go looking for a fight, you can always find a fight – but the fight you get may not be the fight you want.” It is clear that NATO is spoiling for a war with Russia. We shall see, in the fullness of time, whether the fight NATO gets is the fight it wanted.

well this comment section is invaded by nafo clowns

By the end of summer Davis will as before be eating his words.

Davis is bang on accurate in his assessment of what is happening. But it doesn’t matter really what any of us think. I’ve been saying from the beginning that reality on the ground will decide the truth.
No question that Ukraine has been used and that it is now ruined and backed into a black corner. It should have followed the Minsk agreement and avoided all this misery and death. A major mistake and also Nato has blundered into a tangled mess once again as it struggles desperately to make itself relevant.
The USA is in the hands of a man who is mentally not well and should be removed from office. Clearly not able to think clearly.
All said…non of what I say will be admitted by many people. It is always hard to admit that one has made a horrible mistake.
But history is about to reveal the truth.

I was a civilian working for the Defense Department when the Soviet Union left Afghanistan. Many of us were not very surprised considering the facts on the ground. The Soviets did so when the math simply did not add up to succeed in controlling the country and fighting the Western supported insurgents. Ukraine is much better supplied and the math has so far been quite negative for the Russians who show a decided reluctance to engage in pitched battles. Morale among the soldiers, many drafted or mercenaries, is quite low. The West should be encouraged to show some spine and thereby discourage other adventures by future unstable dictators. Internal conditions in Russia may yet play a decisive role on how this fiasco ends.

Any article that is not 100% saying all is great for Ukraine is Kremlin propaganda. That is a foolish way to look at war. Unless the West keeps flooding Ukraine with equipment they will likely lose. What turned into a proxy war to drain Western stockpiles is quickly being flipped to Russian draining western stockpiles. War comes down to will after the initial assault. Who has more of it, Russia or the West?

Exactly Mark, these trolls want the United States to be drawn into an open war with Russia. They are generally posing as American but it is clear from what they push here that they aren’t concerned whatsoever about American strategic or national interests, and only seek to expand the war. They seek a direct American war against Russia, and they openly seek regime change in Russia and the partition of that country. They seek desolation and war, and are the enemies of prudence and responsible statecraft by and for the United States.

Of course Russia will escalate this as far as needed, as they cannot afford to be directly defeated. That should be patently obvious to any observer with a military science background, yet the bellicose shills, who don’t go themselves to volunteer fighting the Russians, wish to send our young people to the fight, our tax dollars to the fight, our efforts to the fight… all of which do nothing to actually enhance American security.

One would think they’d have learned something from their being so wrong for the past 25 years of moronic interventions, but no, they shill for more of the smart failed policy.

MARTIN IRISH: “Those who disparage and mock Russia in this war would do well to remember Montgomery’s words to the House of Lords: “Rule 1, on page 1 of the book of war, is: “Do not march on Moscow.” Various people have tried it, Napoleon and Hitler, and it is no good.”

Why would anyone think that Ukraine will ‘March on Moscow’? Ukraine’s primary objective is to liberate its remaining Russian-occupied territory, which increasingly appears to be within its grasp. No need to go to Moscow to achieve that goal.

How exactly did Russian troops abandon Kyiv and Kharkiv if they never occupied those cities? They were stopped in Irpin and Brovary in the case of Kyiv and on the Ring Road in the case of Kharkiv. Ukrainian troops defended their cities and won. They also did the same in Chernihiv, Mykolayiv, and most recently in Vuhledar.

Once one takes this into account, the core argument of the article stops making any sense.

Maybe China really is providing funding for Russia in this war in the hope that NATO will get directly involved. When that happens, say goodbye to Taiwan. Just providing a little fuel for the fire for all those paranoid Americans that think their freedom is under attack.

1. One fascinating thing to me has been to look at the media coverage of the takeover of Bakhmut city proper. There was a clear, week by week progression from area to area. And it got zero coverage in the media. You had to follow the “neutral” (leaning to pro Russian) YouTubers like DPA, Weeb Union, or Military Summary, or the Telegram channels themselves of Russian sources like Rybar or Remy to see the story.

I would caution the “Russia is winning” crowd with all the previous overestimates and I noted that the MSM had zero about this block by block takeover. ISW also completely ignored a huge, fascinating story.

If you want to learn about war, don’t you think there are some lessons on defense/attack in cities from Bakhmut? Or even of how to use non-trained troops? I’ve done combat town at Quantico…and Bakhmut was hella bigger and more real than shooting with flash suppressors.

The advance started from the north and east and moved into the city, then to the river, then crossed the river, then to the railroad, then crossed the railroad. Then to “The Citadel” (named by a YTer but adopted by the forces) of high rises. Then to the parts of The Citadel (Domino last). Then to the Mig stadium and high rises. But NONE of this (very fascinating) creep through the city was reported. Just battle ongoing in Bakhmut and even the night before it fell, the daily stories (and I use Google News with last 24 hours filter) was all about Ukraine winning and having turned the tide with flank attacks. Not even “race against time”. Just WINNING!

I told the pro Russia types, that I would wait and see who proved right on Bakhmut…and the YTers, basing reports on Telegram channels and geolocated videos were clearly better than NYT, ISW, etc. Not just a little bit better or a better prediction. But the MSM totally not covering the story as it happened.

2. Minor thing, but I don’t like the two uses of “literally”. The author correctly does not use the term to mean figuratively. However, he still uses it as a stressor incorrectly. You should use it only when something that might be figurative needs to be clarified. For example “literally shit your pants in surprise” (if actual defecation happened). Not as a general stressor. So, not “literally ignored”. No, just “ignored”. Damn millennials. Get off my lawn.

3. Decent article. I can’t comment too much on the land battle, grand strategy stuff. Independent ops in all male part of the USN is more my background. Little bit of JTF stuff where you see staffs or the like. But way more time operating, dealing with the troops (good and bad), fixing the gear, etc. It’s funny how every Internet war gamer thinks they are Sherman or Jackson. Or maybe it’s just the whole USA/USAFA land orientation. Bases and clear control from the rear and coordinated objectives. Not off doing your own thing, with no radio comms back to HQ, even to QSL orders (gotta keep EMCON).

“The trend of war is shifting toward Moscow, regardless of how upset that may make many in the West.”

Ha ha! Where exactly, Mr. Davis, did your article provide evidence for this wild assertion?

The Kremilin attempted to invade large Ukrainian cities Kiev, Kharkiv, and Kherson–and they gravely miscalculated, so they retreated with heavy losses. Then Ukraine counter-assaulted and took back all of Kharkiv. During the Winter and early Spring, the battle lines have hardly moved, but Russia has been losing many more men in the meat-grinder of of towns like Bakhmut than Ukraine–but more importantly, Russia has been losing equipment en masse–tanks, IFVs, aircraft, artillery, drones–even shoulder held ATGMs.

During this attritional warfare, the attacker Russia has been losing 5-1 or more men vs. Ukraine–and those lost have been the best of the Russian Army–all who are left now are inexperienced mobiks.

While this apparent ‘stalemate’ which has devastated Russian forces ‘offensives’ has been happening, Ukraine has been training new assault groups in the West on relatively advanced Western weapons. In the past 3 months, newly trained men and materiel has been accumulated. Ukraine now has a formidable air defense including Patriots, NSAMS, Geppards, Leopards, Abrams, Stryker’s, Bradley’s, Marder’s, Himars, HARM’s, Storm Shadows, JDAM’s and soon F-16s.

This counter-offensive has already started in the form of ‘shaping’ operations to take out enemy radar/air defenses, and artillery. Soon Ukraine will strike a massive blow, and Russia will be unable to stop it.

It is difficult or impossible to tell the difference between an incompetent military analyst and a paid Kremlin shill.

God bless people in the world.

Democratic Party is the boss of atheism parties, Communist Party is the underboss, SPD is the consigliere, and Nazis is the capo.

Scholars of atheism believe that the Communist Party is friend, not enemy, they think socialism warfare is competition, so they teach more and more atheism scholars. Therefore, atheism consulting companies such as the Wilson Institute, CSIS, and the American Enterprise Institute oppose the Communist Party with atheism, and continue to promote socialism and evolution to make more and more people believe atheism.

Democratic Party continues to cooperate with the Communist Party, incite more wars. When Japan atheism scholars promoted Japan’s socialism East Asia Union plan to the people before World War II, the U.S. Democratic Party did not oppose it, but instigated Japan to implement the Socialism Union plan.

After Democratic Party helped the Communist Party occupy mainland China, Democratic Party helped the CCP with weapon technology and US dollars, although after the Tiananmen murder, the cooperation with the CCP was suspended. But the Clinton administration partnered with the Communist Party to research biochemistry once again. So the cooperation between the Democratic Party and the Communist Party in the 20th century will cause nuclear war in the 21st century.

The civil war of the Republic of China is one of the wars of atheism education. The cold war is a break time. The second half of the Second World War will be the next nuclear war. Because the Taipei authorities believe atheism and want to replace the war with nuclear weapons, it will be impossible for Taiwan Province to prevent radiation-contaminated. Even though many people this year promote that the army of the Republic of China is working hard to prepare for war, the vast majority of people in Taiwan province and Fujian province believe atheism, and the people serve as soldiers and policemen for money. So they oppose the unclassified report released by the Rand ten years ago, and they also opposed the ground combat in Taiwan Province.

But Retired Lieutenant Colonel Davis and Dr. Holmes are correct. After Ukraine withdrew from the Soviet Union, Ukraine’s wrong strategy is to the present, so it is impossible for Ukraine to remedy the wrong strategy by tactics.

Retired Lt. Col. Davis explains the tactic and strategy problems of Ukraine with the Bulge battle. This analogy is correct by military principles, and it is also the reason why the Republic of China cannot attack Hebei Province from Fujian Province with own military. Sadly, the plan of the Republic of China to counteroffensive the CCP is the same as that of Ukraine and German. They all want to assemble their troops to break through the enemy’s defense walls and traps.

The U.S. Marine Corps explained Russia’s manoeuvre tactic in the initial battle, and the Wagner also executed manoeuvre tactic. Therefore, the Russian army completed the strategy that Russia President Putin announced, forcing Ukraine to withdraw from the area around Crimea and keeping the supply route from Moscow to Crimea.

Therefore, Ukraine President Zelenskyy causes irreparable damage to the Ukraine army. Although socialism Russia also sacrificed a large number of soldiers, the reporter found that both the Russian regular army and mercenaries retained veterans, and most of the casualties were new recruits. This is also the suggestion that the retired Lt. Col. Davis gives to Ukraine. Ukraine should avoid urban combat, deploy the remaining troops in other areas, and let the armies of the two countries conduct combat directly.

As the military thoughts of Sun Tzu, he thinks that the strategy and the front of the battle cannot be changed easily, and tactics should not cause danger to the strategy, because the danger of maneuver tactics are consuming the country’s supplies quickly, which is also an inherent danger of blitz tactic. Many people think of blitz tactic as strategy. This kind of wrong thought is like declaring that cavalry charge is the priority strategy, infantry and archers must be coordinated with cavalry charge. If the infantry and archers followed the cavalry charge, the infantry and archers would tire more quickly, causing the loss of the front line, and making dangers to the commander.

All wars is attrition war, so manoeuvre is a tactic adapted to war. Manoeuvre strategy or manoeuvre war is an unknown hypothesis except nuclear weapons.

To avoid the fog Clausewitz says, Sun Tzu says:
“To ensure that your whole host may withstand the brunt of the enemy’s attack and remain unshaken — this is affected by manoeuvre direct and indirect.”
“In all fighting, the direct method shall be used for joining battle, but indirect methods will be needed in order to secure victory.”

So scouting is to make a faster attack than the enemy.

Some people think the indirect methods of Sun Tzu is the Indirect approach of Liddell Hart, but the indirect methods of Sun Tzu are manoeuvre tactics of all troops. This misunderstanding is due to a wrong English translation. So people don’t blame yourself please. Because some words in Chinese do not have only one meaning, and these have several meanings after being  a vocabulary or phrase.

I hope that the Ukraine people learn the lesson of the past 100 years and repent to God, because the army, navy and air force should fight by laws of God and military principles. People should not worship any weapon.

God created photons and ether, not created bright and gloomy. So God teaches us to obey Ten Commandments, and God waits for us to repent.

Mr. Kissinger says, “I look at the historical and moral motivations of the people involved.”

“The American view of itself is righteousness. We believe we are unselfish, that we have no purely national objectives, and also that our national objectives are achieved in foreign policy with such difficulty that when we expose them to modification through discussion, we get resentful of opponents. We expect that our views will carry the day, not because we think we are intellectually superior, but because we think the views in themselves should be dominant. It’s an expression of strong moral feelings coupled with great power. But it’s usually not put forward as a power position.”

“the two world wars should have taught that the price one pays even with conventional technology is out of proportion to most objectives that are achievable.” “the growth within each society through cyber and biology to intrude into the territory of the other, this kind of war will destroy civilization.”

So the Democratic-Republicans Party should believe only God is justice. 

But presidential candidate didn’t convince the people in America to confess and repent to God and correct foreign policy. At least people in the U.S. could defend their country if the foreign policy of the United States is corrected to the moral policy of General George Washington and Commander Abraham Lincoln. If other countries oppose God, people in the U.S. would pray to God and prepare for war.

God is waiting for us.

God bless America.

Manpower is not really the issue for the Ukraine. The Ukrainian population is at around 40 million people. This should provide them with a pool of around 5 million young men of fighting age. The casualty rate is around 10,000 per month. Materiel and funding is the issue. The United States and European Union have written the Ukraine a “blank check” and are providing funds and materiel in large amounts. The United States is already on the hook for over $1 Trillion so far. Additionally, the US and NATO are providing “combat multipliers” that includes training support, intelligence, and targeting assets. The United States and NATO can replace Ukrainian equipment. Additionally, NATO has over 250,000 troops on the ground near the Russian border. This ties down a considerable number of Russian units that could be used against the Ukraine. The Russians simply can’t replace lost materiel and equipment. The Russians simply can’t defend themselves against the most powerful and relentless military alliance on Earth. It just isn’t possible.

Well the author has a good point here. Just reflect on the fact that acording to western media , Some idiotic under sanctions russians, conquered Bachmut with a bunch of badly trained and equipped dirty prisoners , leaded by a retarded cook against all the nato and eu sponsored modern weaponry, satelite info , logistics , brave super strong ukrainian soldiers and western freedom hero fighters. All of that happened while the red army is hidding in holes , waiting scared for the mighty `easter that was` counter offensive , unable to release a `shock & awe` Bagdad USA style bombing against Kiev. Meanwhile western ukraine has a nightlife and luxury consumers to envy…. i dont think it was the case in Belgrade or Bagdad during war time…

Your article although researched omitted 4. critical factors & 2 ?s ie 1. Wagner Group Leaders own admission that Russia is losing this War & 2. Russia’s inability to protect its Assets in occupied Ukraine & also in its own territory. 3. Ukraine’s sacrifice in Bakhmut was strategic by giving it time to re-equip it’s strategy both in 4IR Arms including HIMARS Patriot & now F16s.
5. Hows the Mfs 3 day War going by the way?
6. What are your thoughts about losing the Moskva & now Ivan Khurs ..2 Capital Ships as an Ex Military Man btw .
U know that 1 Patriot took down 2 x eWarfare Choppers & an Su-35 not forgetting these Mfs Hypersonic Missile. This caused Putin to shit his Arse out in regards to the latter. Bakhmut was a strategic Goal conceded by Ukraine but it did take out the Russian Goalkeeper

Russia was never going to lose the war in Ukraine. It is beyond reason to expect the greatest nuclear power on Earth to be defeated by Ukraine despite being funded and armed by the US and NATO. No serious military strategist ever thought different. The Western MSM via the MIC / CIA has been feeding propaganda to the masses fro the beginning of this conflict. Ultimately, Russia will crush Ukraine and NATO will never establish a foothold there. Just wait and see ….

dan mullock:

The reason Davis and other fellow military officers believe that Bakhmut substantially attrited Ukraine more than Russia is that Russia had fire control over Bakhmut for most of the battle. They had the Ukrainians in a kesselschlacht, a cauldron encirclement where they exercised fire control over supply lines into the city. They also did not primarily use Russian soldiers to take the city, but Wagner mercenaries/penal battalions. The battle is also the 4th in a series of battles in which Ukrainian forces have been surrounded and annihilated—each in turn larger and larger battles of attrition. In wars of attrition, Napoleon’s axiom rings true, God favors the side with the larger battalions—and here that means: Russia’s.

Everything observable seems to point to the condition of the Russian Army being far closer to World War I collapse than World War II victory. The Russians could only provide one tank for their May 9 victory parade in Red Square, a World War II vintage T-34. There are persistent reports of Russian draftees sent to the front with minimal equipent and training, and without officers that stay with them when they get shelled by artillery.

Russian artillery barrels are wearing out, but the Russian Army has no maintenance system to replace them. Units in storage have been left out in Russian weather for decades, with almost no maintenance at all. Russia is buying ammunition from North Korea and Iran. Neither is known as a quality supplier.

The Ukrainians are using Storm Shadow stealth cruise missiles to hit targets hundreds of miles from the front. They also have AIM-160 minature decoy/jammer missiles to confuse Russian air defenses. Unlike World War II, Russians don’t have 40,000 extra Allied trucks and jeeps to carry supplies. They depend on railroads and supply dumps that are easy targets for HIMARS and Storm Shadow missiles. The longer the range of the missiles, the longer the haul that the trucks have to make with the supplies.

The AFU has 9 newly trained and equipped armored brigades to tear big holes in Russian lines. Most of the equipment and the trained soldiers from Putin’s initial invasion have been destroyed. The Russians only have a lot of poorly trained and motivated bodies to stop the coming offensive.

Weird weird argument. “When Russia is faced with a city battle they with draw, so Ukraine should have withdrawn from Bakhmut”.

What?

This makes no sense and contradicts what happened. Russia advanced into Bakhmut. Ukraine slowly slowly withdrew.

If Russia always withdraws, why should Ukraine withdraw?

Is this guy really a military strategic thinker?