Connect with us

Hi, what are you looking for?


Sad Reality: The Ukraine War Is Now Going Russia’s Way

Recent evidence indicates the Russian side has made tactical and operational improvements that are having an impact on the ground in Ukraine.

Ukraine Russia
Russian military 305th Artillery Brigade's exercise. 2S5 self-propelled cannon.

From almost the opening days of the Russia-Ukraine War, a running theme among Western analysts has been that the Russian military has badly underperformed and the Ukrainian Armed Forces constantly exceeded expectations.

Few seem to have noticed, however, that the pendulum on the battlefield has shifted. 

Shift for Russia in Ukraine

Recent evidence indicates the Russian side has made tactical and operational improvements that are having an impact on the ground in Ukraine.

Washington policymakers need to update their understanding of the current trajectory of the war to ensure the U.S. is not caught off guard by battlefield events – and that our interests don’t suffer as a result.

There has been no shortage of legitimate evidence to support the contention that throughout 2022 the Russian side performed much worse than most expected and that Ukraine performed better than anticipated. Russia’s initial battle plan was flawed at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels.

Moscow allocated an invasion force that was too small for the task, dispersed across four axes of advance (ensuring that none would be strong enough to succeed on its own), and was not equipped with supplies to sustain a long war.

Ukraine was more prepared for an invasion than many originally believed and took impressive action quickly to stem the Russian advance, blunting each axis, and imposing serious casualties on the invaders.

In contrast to Russian blunders, Zelensky’s troops initially performed well at the strategic, operational, and tactical levels such that Russia was forced into a major withdrawal of the bulk of its armored forces from Kyiv and Kharkiv barely a month into the war.

Russian Deployments

It was a logical and rational strategic decision for Russia to redeploy its forces to strengthen the Donbas front in April 2022. But even then, ample evidence began to pile up that tactically, there were still grave weaknesses in the Russian forces, such as the infamous May 2022  crossing of the Seversky-Donetsk river, which saw an entire battalion wiped out. All the news wasn’t bad for Russia, however, as through the month of July Putin’s forces captured a number of key cities.

After repositioning its forces, Russia Captured Mariupol, Lyman, Popasna, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk. But exposing Russia’s ongoing operational weaknesses, Ukrainian forces launched two offensives, one of which caught Russia completely by surprise, resulting in the recapture of Lyman. The first was in the Kherson province, which started off badly for Ukraine. But while all Moscow’s attention was on Kherson, Ukraine unleashed a major drive north near Kharkiv

Back and Forth Continues

Russian leaders had been asleep at the wheel, focusing all of their attention on Kherson and literally ignoring Kharkiv, trying to secure their northern flank with a paltry number of minimally trained national guardsmen. Ukraine exploited this mistake and drove Russian troops back over 100km to the Svatavo-Kremenna line. While still reeling from this blow, Russia faced a dilemma in Kherson city: fight a bloody defensive battle in the city or surrender it without a fight.

Russia chose the latter. By October, Russian leaders were being ridiculed in the West as having been seriously wounded by Ukraine’s twin offensives, and talk of a Ukrainian victory picked up steam, with former U.S. Army general Ben Hodges claiming Ukraine could win the war “by the end of the year” 2022. 

As of November 2022, it was fair to say the Russian general staff had been outperformed by the Ukrainian general staff. Many pundits in the West concluded that Russian troops and leaders were deeply flawed and incapable of improving, believing that Russia would remain incapable tactically for the duration of the war. 

What many of these analysts failed to recognize, however, is that Russia has vastly more capacity to make war, both in terms of material and personnel, and therefore has the capacity to absorb enormous losses and still remain viable. Further, Russian history is replete with examples of starting out poorly in wars, suffering large casualties, and then recovering to turn the tide. Ukraine, on the other hand, has significantly fewer resources or troops and therefore has less room for error. 


Over the now 15 months of war, Ukraine has fought and lost four major urban battles against Russia, suffering progressively worse levels of casualties in each: Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Soledar, and most recently Bakhmut.

When Russia was faced with city battles – Kyiv, Kharkiv City, and Kherson City – they chose to abandon each while establishing more defensible defensive positions elsewhere. Ukraine, on the other hand, chose to fight for their major cities. The results are telling.

By withdrawing from Kyiv and Kharkiv in the first month of war and from Kherson City last fall, Russia was able to relocate its force into more defensible positions, preserving its personnel from the crucible of a grueling defensive fight in urban terrain. Ukraine, on the other hand, chose to contest major cities and has now lost staggering numbers of troops – but they also lost the city itself in the end. The decision of the Ukrainian general staff to defend Bakhmut until the end may have grave implications for the rest of the war.

As far back as December, it was clear that Ukraine would not be able to keep Bakhmut. Once Russian troops advanced around the flanks of the city and took all the roads supporting the garrison under fire control, the chances of holding the city fell to almost zero. What Ukraine could and should have done is follow the Russian example at Kherson and withdraw to the next prepared defensive position in the vicinity of Kramatorsk or Slavyansk.

From those locations, the Ukrainians would again have had all the advantages: they would have had elaborately dug fighting positions, unrestricted fields of fire to attack oncoming Russian troops, and unhindered resupply routes to the rear. It would have been far more expensive for Russia to try and take those positions than it was to fight from point-blank range against the Ukrainians in Bakhmut, especially when the Russians could and did inflict severe blows on a daily basis to resupply the defenders.

As a result, Ukraine has lost literally tens of thousands of killed and wounded, along with enormous quantities of equipment and ammunition, in those four city fights. Based on a likely fire superiority of 10-to-1 on the Russian side, Ukraine no doubt suffered considerably more casualties in those fights than the Russians. But even if the cost were equal, Russia has millions more men from whom to draw more fighters and a major domestic industrial capacity to produce all the ammunition they may require.

Put simply, Ukraine doesn’t have the personnel or industrial capacity to replace their lost men and equipment in comparison to the Russians. Moreover, Russia has been learning from its many tactical mistakes and evidence suggests they are improving tactically while simultaneously expanding their industrial capacity. Even bigger than the dearth of ammunition and equipment for Ukraine, however, is the number of trained and experienced personnel they’ve lost. Many of those skilled troops and leaders simply cannot be replaced in the span of mere months.

Ukraine is now faced with a world-class dilemma: should they use their last offensive capacity in a last gasp of hoping they inflict a grave wound on the Russians defending in the occupied territories or preserve them in case Russia launches a summer offensive of their own? There are serious risks with either course of action. I assess there is currently no likely path for Ukraine to achieve a military victory. Continuing to fight in that hope may perversely result in them losing even more territory.

Supporting Ukraine

The United States must take these realities into consideration in the coming weeks and months. Washington has already provided Ukraine the lion’s share of all military and financial aide including many of our most sophisticated armor, artillery, rockets, and missiles. Biden has even authorized the release of F-16 jets. The United States cannot – nor should it – commit to sending an equal amount of support for the next year of war, should it continue that long. Europe must be willing to make greater contributions to any future deliveries to Ukraine.

Only Kyiv can decide whether to keep fighting or seek the best-negotiated deal it can get. But the United States is obligated to ensure the security of our country and people above the desires of Kyiv.

In addition to burden-shifting physical support primarily to European states, means the U.S. must avoid the trap of agreeing to any type of security guarantee for Ukraine. History is too filled with examples of hasty agreements to end fighting that unwittingly lay the foundation for future conflicts. America must not put its own future safety at risk by agreeing to any form of security guarantee. 

The trend of war is shifting toward Moscow, regardless of how upset that may make many in the West. It is the observable reality. What Washington must do is avoid the temptation to “double-down” on supporting a losing proposition and do whatever we need to bring this conflict to a rapid conclusion, preserving our future security to the maximum extent. Ignoring these realities could set up Ukraine for even greater losses – and could put our own security at unacceptable future risk. 

A 19FortyFive Contributing Editor, Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis. 

Written By

Daniel L. Davis is a Senior Fellow for Defense Priorities and a former Lt. Col. in the U.S. Army who deployed into combat zones four times. He is the author of “The Eleventh Hour in 2020 America.” Follow him @DanielLDavis1.



  1. Carlos Danger

    May 25, 2023 at 4:49 pm

    It really is amazing how every article by Daniel Davis reads like it was written by the Kremlin Press Office. No, the war is not going Russia’s way and virtually no authorities think that; not even Russian ones. Why is Mr. Davis even a contributor here?

  2. Steve

    May 25, 2023 at 5:19 pm

    Once again, Davis claims Ukraine has suffered unsustainable casualties, while ignoring the considerable evidence that Russia has suffered far worse losses of men & equipment. Russia isn’t the Soviet Union, it has only about half the population of the USSR, and it’s population peaked more than 30 some years ago. It now has an aging population, in less than great health, with many of its best & brightest having fled the country rather than serve in Putin’s war of aggression. A country that has to mobilize prisoners to barely hold its ground doesn’t have a surplus of manpower. Quite the opposite by any measure.

  3. Bill C

    May 25, 2023 at 6:02 pm

    I’m surprised that a man with your background could so completely misunderstand the facts of the war. Russia is clearly on its way to losing this war, based on the lack of replacement troops, lack of training, lack of supply and logistics, lack of medical care for wounded, international sanctions that will destroy the economy and prevent the resupply of technical parts like chips for modern weapons, grossly poor or totally lacking leadership and field coordination, grossly poor morale, lack of food and water for the troops, war crimes not only against Ukrainians but also fellow Russian soldiers, rebellion inside Russia, internal squabbles between the military and the Wagner Group, etc. etc. I could go on but I think that makes the case.
    The only question in my mind is whether or not Putin will resort to the use of tactical nukes when the Ukrainian offensive crushes the Russian troops in the field. Keep in mind that Ukraine is fighting for its right to survive, to steal a line from the movie “Independence Day,” so there can be no end to the war until Russia is defeated.

  4. Gary Jacobs

    May 25, 2023 at 6:40 pm

    LoL… Davis.

    Always several steps behind current events.

    Also always an expert level cherry picker to pretend your faux notion of smarts is in someway legit so you can undermine support for Ukraine.

    The irony of you citing a RUSI report that focuses solely on Russia’s adjustment to GMLRS fire by moving out of range is the simple fact that RUSI’s home country, the UK, led the way in giving Ukraine longer range cruise missiles to solve precisely this problem.

    Literally the day after the UK themselves announced that they had given Storm Shadow to Ukraine, a massive strike happened in Luhansk City, over 100km behind the front lines.

    Similar strikes have occurred in the days since all throughout the south of Ukraine along the Sea of Azov. Including just a few minutes ago in Berdyansk.

    Then France announced that they would be giving Ukraine their version of the same missile. And German MPs have begun to speak up about giving Ukraine cruise missiles as well.

    Ukraine has also been pummelling Russian armored vehicles with terminal jam proof FPV drones fitted with RPG7 warheads. Endless amounts of those videos appear on the internet with expert level trolling in slow motion as the Russian soldiers look into the camera right before impact.

    As well, still more video has emerged of Ukrainians training with Challenger 2 tanks fitted with bulldozer scoops plowing right through recreations of Russian defenses in the south of Ukraine.

    They scoop up the Dragon’s Teeth along with a mass of dirt and fill the anti vehicle trenches and then roll right over them to the other side while barely being slowed down.

    As for Bakhmut, while it’s true the Ukrainians did sacrifice a lot to keep the Russians fixated on that area… the Russians lost A Lot more…and with the Ukrainians now taking back quite a bit of the flanks, the Russians have been forced to send in reserves from other areas. Especially from Avdiivka…where the Russian offensive completely stalled, and their gains have been largely reversed by the Ukrainians.

    Bottom Line: Davis continues his losing streak about being wrong about just about every word or concept he has ever posted. At least he’s consistent.

  5. TheWoodsman

    May 25, 2023 at 6:50 pm

    Mr. Davis has been saying the war in Ukraine has been “going Russia’s way” since day one. Did we expect anything different today? LOL.

  6. Joe D'Orazio

    May 25, 2023 at 7:38 pm

    I suspect the decision to defend Bakhmut was to show the Russians that Ukraine has the ability to make further Russianngains extremely expensive. It appears Russia is focusing on protecting their gains. The war will be protracted, with endurance being a deciding factor. How can Russian factories run on triple shifts?

  7. David Flood

    May 25, 2023 at 7:55 pm

    Does anyone else think 1945 is a Russian misinformation site?

  8. Scottfs

    May 25, 2023 at 8:21 pm

    The West must tell KGB Putin… and more importantly…the Russian people, they are cast from the family of free Western nations, as long as a single Russian soldier is in Ukraine.

    No contact with the West. No trade, no travel, no satisfaction of their desire to consider themselves the equal of Europe or America.

    To do otherwise is to reward evil, to bless their belligerence, to approve of their rape, murder, kidnapping, torture, and monstrous ways.

    Let them ally with the monsters of China, North Korea, Iran, other slimy countries of the world. End ALL emigration from Russia. Come down hard on hackers.

    Let Russia fester in the filth of their sad, miserable, decrepit country.

    Shun them.

  9. David Flood

    May 25, 2023 at 8:51 pm

    Russian disinformation

  10. Ben Leucking

    May 25, 2023 at 9:10 pm

    Apart from the fact that Davis comes across as a Russian sympathizer, what he writes is nothing short of garbage.

  11. John

    May 25, 2023 at 9:42 pm

    If his definition of success is loosing 500 soldiers, 5 tanks, 10 artillery pieces and 4 ammodumps a day, then how would we define Russia loosing?
    Biden’s boiling the frog strategy continues, but I think the Russian frog is boiling more. This war remains insane and is a fratricidal war with both sides overall not winning. I am not sure that the West has deserved Ukraine. Maybe Prigozin will convince the Kremlin to declare victory and leave Ukraine in exchange for keeping Crimea

  12. Mario

    May 25, 2023 at 9:43 pm

    “Russia has millions more men from whom to draw more fighters”.
    As always, DD starts from vagueness, arbitrary opinions and, above all, false premises. We already saw what it took for your Russian friends to mobilize a few recruits only to send them to die in the Ukraine without weapons or training.
    Just because Russia has more men doesn’t mean it can have more soldiers. DD was stuck in the years of the first world war and the stupid generals who still believed that quantity is almost quality.
    I would like to see the strangely reborn (according to DD, though no one else believes it) Russian army faced with new NATO weapons and tactics as well as new brigades trained by Europeans and North Americans…

  13. Matthew Reynolds

    May 25, 2023 at 9:45 pm

    “After repositioning its forces, Russia Captured Mariupol, Lyman, Popasna, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk.”

    There is a fallacy here in that none of the forces taken from the Kiev front were available to participate in any of these battles. Mariupol was surrounded by the seventh day of the war, and it’s capture in fact therefore had nothing to do with any other action. The capture of Lyman and Popasna were owed to simply making it a priority and not to anything else. The fall of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk were the result of Russia’s brief “artillery summer” where it enjoyed near total artillery supremacy that it has lacked since that time as the West decided to begin the delivery of heavy weaponry.

    “When Russia was faced with city battles – Kyiv, Kharkiv City, and Kherson City – they chose to abandon each while establishing more defensible defensive positions elsewhere…By withdrawing from Kyiv and Kharkiv in the first month of war and from Kherson City last fall, Russia was able to relocate its force into more defensible positions, preserving its personnel from the crucible of a grueling defensive fight in urban terrain.”

    This has to be the most absurd statement of military idiocy I’ve seen written in the press. It doesn’t take much of a brilliant mind or much reading in military history – or even much more than an acquaintance with Sun Tzu to know that a city is perhaps the most fortifiable and defensible terrain that an army can have access to. If you are going to choose to fight a defensive battle anywhere, then fighting it in a city is almost certainly your strongest option. Heavily built buildings are military nightmare to assault. Fortifying a city is one of the great military equalizers, allowing a force to hold off a much more powerful one. This is particularly true in the case of seeking to resist artillery bombardment, which is much harder to resist in open fields than it is in areas with heavy structures. It’s harder to build bunkers in open fields than its beneath rubble and heavily built buildings. This is basic stuff out of the army manuals of combat.

    Russia has rarely been on the defensive. They didn’t abandon Kiev to go on the defensive or to assume defensive positions. And they didn’t abandon Kherson because it wasn’t defensible, but because Ukraine threatened to cut its supply lines.

    And Ukraine’s major cities are places like Kiev, Zaphorizhihia, Kherson, Kharkiv, Somy, Chernihiv, and Mykolayiv – places it has successfully defended. Bakhmut is not one of its major cities. Bakhmut is the 57th largest city in Ukraine. An argument can be made for abandoning it in January, but there are several clear reasons why it did not. The first is that it was obviously defensible and Russia was taking enormous casualties trying to take it. And the second was that if Ukraine fell back, the it meant subjecting even more of its infrastructure and some actually more significant cities to Russia’s brutal area shelling. People actually live behind the front lines you know. Ukraine has conducted a textbook defense, giving ground slowly and falling back whenever not falling back would have meant taking unacceptable casualties.

    As far as the casualties go, no one really knows at present, but many analysts believe that Russia took between three and five times as many casualties as Ukraine during the fighting at Bakhmut. While you can believe whatever you want, one thing is obviously true – Russia not only required an operational pause after taking the city they seem to have given up entirely on going any further. The last act that they did when taking the city was blow up all the bridges leading out of and into the city, thereby eliminating the claimed strategic reason for taking the city in the first place – that it was a transportation hub.

    At this point we have no way of knowing whether or not Ukraine is exhausted, but we can be absolutely certain of one thing – the Russian military is exhausted and is at this point no longer has full operational capability at anywhere along the front line. It appears that the Russian strategy based on the last six months is to play for a stalemate, digging in everywhere in a desperate hope that they can hold at least the land they still retain and be able to claim some sort of victory for domestic political purposes.

    How much did Russia pay you to advance the idea that Ukraine should surrender?

  14. Arash

    May 25, 2023 at 10:10 pm

    America will be defeated in Ukraine the same way it was defeated in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan!
    I’m proud that us Iranians played an important role in all of them!

  15. VOR

    May 25, 2023 at 10:14 pm

    I am not sure there is a singke western analyst that understood this war. This war was not about capturing all of ukraine or kiev or kharkov from day 1.Kiev and Kharkov were distractions. This war was about capturing the landbridge to Crimea – an objective reached in the first 4-6 months. After that Russia’s aims switched to holding the landbridge and absorbing the newly avquired territories. This may be a phased approach. Or the landbridge to crimea could be the end . Time will tell

  16. Walker

    May 25, 2023 at 11:20 pm

    Dang Davis, you sure are sounding more and more shrill. Look at what you just wrote. They say that it takes a minimum of 3 to 1 in offensives. That literally mean that the attacker has higher losses. And yet here you are saying that Ukraine had the higher losses. You don’t have any way to back that up. You literally are speaking out of your butthole. We know conclusively that Bakhmut was heavy tolls on Russia. Maybe we can say Wagner. But they are spent. There is a reason to not attack cities and to instead surround them and force them to surrender. Russia didn’t learn that. Wagner admits they lost 20,000 in Bakhmut alone. That isn’t counting Russian military losses, nor is it likely Wagners true count. The US says that Russia lost 100,000 in Bakhmut. So for you to absolutely lie your ass off and say that this shows that Russia has its shit together? Who the F is dumb enough to pay for your idiotic opinion? This really is your worst article ever and that is saying a whole lot. The funny thing is, I know you wanted to write this article over three months ago. You even did a 2 articles in a 3 article group in it, never producing the third article till now. You really should be ashamed of yourself. You are totally pathetic and pitiful.

    Get some honesty, get some objectivity, and literally, grow a brain. I can’t insult you enough to do you proper justice for this insanely dishonest article.

  17. Dmitry Kan

    May 25, 2023 at 11:21 pm

    How does this war put US security in greater risk? I know it certainly put worth of America’s word in the gutter. In 1996 in Budapest US, Great Britain, Russia and Ukraine signed a document promising Ukraine territorial integrity in exchange for its nuclear and missile arsenal. So now you are going to say “Well.. We didn’t mean we would go to war for it”. And where does author gets his casualty numbers? Ukrainians fight better, smarter, with truth on their side. And they are defending. Since when defending side has higher casualties than attacker? Russia has no trained military professionals left. Now they have mostly conscripts who don’t know what they are fighting for. But Ukrainians do. I guess author is in favor of America joining the “feckless club”. If it does – power will shift to Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. Those countries know what Russia is and their security is in grave danger right now. Unlike this imaginary future risk for US.

  18. Jacksonian Libertarian

    May 26, 2023 at 2:06 am

    Baghdad Bob is that you?

    Is everything still OK?

    Isn’t it ironic that Russia is now being invaded by…Russians?

  19. June

    May 26, 2023 at 3:37 am

    I’m sure where Daniel Davis has been for the past 15 months. Instead of sensible arguments, he writes a novel without any reasonable evidence. He has consistently been wrong for the past 15 months and he wants to continue his absurd arguments. I understand we have to pay attention to any dissenting voices, but this is just a novel and insane arguments. This kind of arguments are pointless.

  20. June

    May 26, 2023 at 3:46 am

    Just consider what has happened over the past 15 months. From time to time, Russia wins small battles but is losing the war. Is this really hard to see? Honestly, we can see a better argument from high school debate teams.

  21. Wojciech Sacha

    May 26, 2023 at 4:27 am

    Russian losses in Bachmut are widely assessed to be two or three times higher, as Ukraine was defending and rotating much better trained troops, while russians sent waives of poorly trained recruits.
    It’s true that those proportions may still not favor Ukraine (estimated ca. 8-10k Ukrainians dead or seriously wounded vs 20k Russians) as they have much smaller population. But Russia has no magic reserves, if they wanted to – the would have to recruit new people and train them from zero.
    I don’t understand why in US interest would be NOT to guarantee Ukraine’s safety. That would mean US would not respect Budapest Memorandum, it would render US security guarantees meaningless. It would be the best argument for any dictator to produce nuclear weapons and start new wars. That’s horrible perspective for US and the World.
    Ukraine without security guarantees would have no chance to rebuilt – it would turn into depopulated bankrupt state at the NATO boarder, easy pray for future invasion. I really can’t see how giving up and letting Russia in somehow serves US interests.

  22. Michel Demuynck

    May 26, 2023 at 4:33 am

    Insightful article. The initial optimism of Ukraine and its allies is, I believe, a bit comparable to that of the Reddit/Robinhood stock investors who, driven by their early successes, are increasing their stakes in the stock market but risk being severely burned in the end. That is already the case for a big part of the Ukrainian people, and will come at a tremendous cost for the Europeans ( except for their leaders, I think the Von Der Leyens, Sunaks, Stoltenbergs and co who are obviously immune to that). It is a war they can’t win, at best a pyrrhic victory which will sting the Ukrainians and Europeans for decades. But they are fake democracies; if they would consult their populations (without hiding the real facts and prospects) through referendums, I doubt they would find much support, but of course those governments will never do that…

  23. Fred Leander

    May 26, 2023 at 5:07 am

    Another well-founded article from mr. Davis. The following phrase is particularly wise to note: “….means the U.S. must avoid the trap of agreeing to any type of security guarantee for Ukraine. History is too filled with examples of hasty agreements to end fighting that unwittingly lay the foundation for future conflicts”…

  24. DJSmith

    May 26, 2023 at 5:27 am

    The RF baited a psychological trap in Bahkmut aimed solely at Zelensky. It appears that their intent was not to “take” the city. Far from it, their intent was to suck in more and more Ukraine troops to be, and let’s be frank, slaughtered.

    And IT WORKED perfectly. Unlike Ukraine, the RF does not sacrifice its own lives for the ebb and flow of territory. Yet from many sources it has come out that, contrary to his professional military advice, the great leader, the Mini Zee is solely responsible for that grievous error.

    If you notice a similarity to the current trap of the US sucked into this contest of wills, you are not wrong. But Russia’s will is stronger because its based on reality on THEIR ground. The DC Bolsheviks will be forced to face that at some point. Let’s hope it’s before WW3 breaks out.

  25. Harmen Breedeveld

    May 26, 2023 at 5:46 am

    I am astonished at how easily Mr Davis wants to sacrifice the Ukrainians to the Russians. Russian state media these days is filled with violent, murderous and often even genocidal rhetoric. It is also clear that many dream of taking all of Ukraine. There cannot be a deal – unless you are ok with looking the other way while Russia commits crimes against humanity on a massive scale.

    Thankfully, the situation in Ukraine is likely not nearly as bad as Mr Davis paints it. The idea of this endless Russian war machine is just that – an idea. Russia faces huge internal political and practical constraints. There is no endless source of manpower; if there were, Russia would have long ago won this thing. There is no endless source of military equipment; if there were, Russia would not be pulling T-62s and T-55s out of storage.

    Russia is fighting a war of choice – and wars of choice lose popular and elite support if they go badly. Eventually people want to give up. Just ask Americans about Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Or the Soviets in Afghanistan.

    Ukraine is fighting a war of survival. They are way more motivated than the Russians. There is no risk of the Ukrainian government losing popular and elite support for the war: very few Ukrainians are willing to put their lives in Russian hands. Not after Bucha. Not after Mariupol. Not after the kidnapping of Ukrainian children. Not after the terror attacks on Ukrainian cities. Not after all the genocidal rhetoric coming from Russia.

    Ukraine is also getting more and more western military support – increasingly so from Europe. Encouragingly, both left-wing and right-wing populist European leaders, who were the most likely to stay out of this conflict, also largely support the war effort in Ukraine, most visibly so in Poland and Italy. Only Hungary – the vilest government in the EU – is not in on the war effort, and is isolated. The West is digging in for the long run.

    I do not know how this war will end. But I am fairly confident that both Ukraine and the West will hang in there and that Russia will eventually give up, in one way or the other.

  26. Sean Redshaw

    May 26, 2023 at 6:10 am

    Opinions are so much more persuasive when supported by observable facts. I guess that the powerful fog of war makes this difficult and that is why commentators resort to crystal balls, gut feelings or regurgutation of propoganda.

  27. TheDon

    May 26, 2023 at 6:15 am

    Pretty quiet…
    Ukraine reports are skewed for months. Russias move across river makes it hard to attack and the Ukrainian obsession on bahkmut is allowing russia to concentrate on their forces.

  28. Rupert

    May 26, 2023 at 6:16 am

    I see the opposite. Russia have decimated their best troops (VDV and Wagner) so will be forced to rely on poorly trained conscripts. Plus their logistics will get even harder now Ukraine has access to long range cruise missiles.

  29. Kobb

    May 26, 2023 at 7:23 am

    yeah, yeah, yeah. This “expert” had arleady given a forecast last year. Nothin was even close to reality.
    So, stop this pro Kremlin hidden propaganda, please

  30. Jack Horn

    May 26, 2023 at 7:23 am

    No offense young man. But speaking as a retired army officer with 40 years experience as a Russian area specialist in Army Military Intelligence, I beg to differ. The real combat is about to begin any day. Ukraine actually hinted at what’s really going on a couple of days ago when their government described Bakhmut as a “mouse trap”, followed by the Ukrainian military statement, I believe yesterday, to the effect that Ukraine was attritting Russian supply and logistics infrastructure. All the recent acts of “sabotage” also attritted rail infrastructure between Crimea and Russian forces. The one at Belgorod further attritted that rail line inasmuch as it is the the choke point through which all materiel weapons systems and personnel assets enter Ukraine. All food, fuel, and ammunition, including on-hand weapons in stock in Crimea can no longer reach Russian forces from Crimea due to the recent attacks in the south, all of which have been timed to support the end game. What you are watching is the greatest deception operation in modern history. This is why no western systems have been used to date. I’ll give you a hint, which no one seems to remember. The overall plan follows the lessons of the Winter War (which Russia actually denies ever happened). For the past 6 months, Bakhmut has been the Battle of Thermopylae, and the end game, which you will see very soon, is the reason for which the US won the Battle of the Bulge. The counterattack has been going on in secret since 9 May and no one noticed. Even Ukraine hinted at that. Once the actual full combat portion of the OPLAN starts any day now, I’d be surprised if Russia lasts five days, because they can’t. They don’t have enough fuel (hint). I figured this out three months ago just by watching news reports.

  31. len

    May 26, 2023 at 7:35 am

    The AFU was certainly admired by Yevgeny Prigozhin for the tough 244 day battles for Bakhmut. The Ukraine army has shown all along they certainly are no slouches by any military standards. Evidence shows that the Russian army was not well prepared for the Ukraine defense once the SVO commenced. The Minsk II Accords paid off being used to stall Russia after the annexation of Crimea, in 2014, giving NATO more time to train up Ukraine forces according to Angela Merkel.

    Military strategists argue at the onset of the SVO that the 40 mile Russian convoy of equipment, mostly in ill repair. Was staged outside of Kiev as a feint, to draw-off Ukrainian forces from Donbass to defend the Capitol. Maybe? Later as the war developed. Russian retreats were bitterly contested to Putin by both Kadyrov and Prigozhin. Likely resulting in the replacement of several Russian military generals in a show of Putin’s authority.

    The metrics have always favored Russia in spite of Western intervention and weapons support for Ukraine. At this point to argue that the war should have never started is a mute point. The issue now becomes how much longer should the West keep propping up the Ukrainian defense efforts? In expectation of a victory. The proposed increase in US defense spending in spite of the debt ceiling negotiations is not a good sign the Biden administration will back off any time soon. National security, through US interventionist foreign policy, there is none.

    The territorial gains in the Donbass by Russia are not likely to be used for barter in peace negotiations. They will be Russia’s for keeps including Crimea. Kiev’s current hope will be that the annexed oblasts are the extent of Russia’s land grab, and Putin spares Odessa. Perhaps decades in the future ‘a kinder gentler’ Russia will release the annexed lands back to Ukraine. Zelenskyy needs to realize this and the West needs to insist on his capitulation. Negotiating with Russia to rebuild Ukraine in exchange for lifting economic and trade sanctions, and in time relations with the West to be normalized.

    Otherwise escalations will continue to spiral out of control with the high possibility of morphing into a third world war. Involving more American treasure. Like our sons and daughters.


    May 26, 2023 at 8:00 am

    Can not the same be said of Russia though. Yes, they have a far greater capacity to sustain a war footing, but what no factory can manufacture is motivation, superior battlefront leaders & innate belief that the war you are fighting is just.

    Ukraine has the advantage that they are fighting for their homes, on familiar land & the background of being utterly abused by the Bolsheviks/russians since 1921. My guess is support behind enemy lines, for Ukraine, is very profound as well. The ability to assist the active Ukrainian Military is an almost incalculable asset for Ukraine as well.

    It will be very interesting to see where the first major efforts of the new “offensive” go & how well the Ukrainians perform with superior western equipment. My opinion is that it won’t take much to utterly route local russian units after the initial attack. Every time I hear about fixed defensive positions slowing or blunting offensive actions I think of Eben-Emael & the German plan to neutralize that fixed position. Surly the Ukrainian Military has a plan to attack, breach & fan out behind some of these positions & once successful the ensuing panic that sets in will cause a local route that may or may not spread to a much larger event.

    Lately I finished reading “Last Stands,” & years ago read “Carnage & Culture.” It demonstrates time & time again that men motivated by something other than being executed/imprisoned for failing to follow rules or orders by inferior leaders, will almost always prevail in the long run.

    Ukraine has a very effective & intelligent war time leader & while the debate about Bakhmut is interesting one thing that their refusal to “give up,” demonstrated is that Ukraine understands if they continue to abandon “defensible” areas the motivation for sympathetic countries to continue delivering supplies, money & training will dry up. Was Bakhmut not also a very strategic location with commanding views of the surrounding countryside?

    Ukraine suffered greatly in Bakhmut, no doubt, but so did the Russian. Wagner is probably never going to return to the battlefield in Ukraine again (Prigozhin is a dead man walking in my opinion though), the airborne & special forces units have been degraded significantly as well. You cannot replace those types of highly trained & motivated units anytime soon, so you are left with pretty much the outliers of a society that hates them except when they are sent to a foreign country to fight a totally fabricated “neo-Nazi” enemy & are only there because of an almost zero opportunity at any type of financial stability where they live.

    Can Ukraine not last long enough for the russian economy to completely collapse? Can they not last until someone is bold enough to eliminate Putin? Would be interested in hearing your opinion on this. I very much enjoy this site by the way. Love the honest & forthright thoughts & opinions.

    Thank you as well for your service & dedication to the US Mr. Davis!

  33. Jack Horn

    May 26, 2023 at 8:21 am

    Here’s another hint. Ukraine warned Russian citizens illegally occupying Crimea yesterday that they have only left the Kerch Bridge standing to allow civilians to leave Crimea before they die. That wasn’t bravado. Second. Remember how Ukraine sank the Moskva last year. Essentially a Harpoon (or equivalent, I don’t recall) from land. You can launch a harpoon from anywhere on land or at sea if you have a “rowboat big enough” to launch one. Such as, oh say, a Ukrainian cargo ship sitting 100 kms off Sevastopol at anchor waiting for its legitimate docking slot to pick up or deliver grain somewhere. Happens every day. Or from land during the counterattack, which will begin any day now. The counter attack began on 9 May with deception and the actual major attack is almost ready. My earlier post will tell you how. Once the real combat action starts, I’d be surprised if it lasts 7 days before every Russian in Ukraine and Crimea is dead or a POW and Ukraine has won everything back including Crimea, and the entire Black Sea Fleet has been sunk. слава украине слава героям

  34. Ольга Орлова

    May 26, 2023 at 8:40 am

    I cannot but answer scottfs on behalf of the Russian people – and who even said that we want to have contacts with your gender, racial, fentanyl dump?) So I fully support your proposal – we need to completely break off diplomatic relations with the West.
    The rest of the commentators have neither the desire nor the time to argue with you (too much honor for you)) Therefore, stay in your pleasant little virtual world – the more fun it will be to read you when you realize reality ..)

  35. oakhill1863

    May 26, 2023 at 8:57 am

    Who can remember why at this late date, but rather than a “Russian disinformation site,” my impression for a long time after the war began was that 1945 was more a cheerleader for escalated warfare against Russia. But neither view, or the middle of them, either, makes the analysis in this article more true or less true.

    What I am amazed at in this day of drones and governments knowing every time you buy toothpaste or shoes with all the information websites gather on all of us, is why there is no independent source out there that can overcome all government’s propaganda and just tell us who is winning and why. Doesn’t AP or Reuters have a budget to send up 100 drones or use a zillion cell phone cameras to bring in the truth.

    The posted comments on this article seem only to parrot a hope or constitute a misdirection. Putin has done a lot worse than some expected, but Russia hasn’t accomplished much on the battlefield since it took Berlin, which was a long time ago. So who exactly was expecting a better performance than in Afghanistan–Russia’s, not ours.

    On the other hand, I read on another site today with Summer just around the corner, how Ukraine’s vaunted “Spring Offensive” wasn’t really ever intended for Spring. That could be excuse making. And Biden’s F-16 decision might be desperation, not escalation.

    There are a whole lot of dead Ukrainians. Sure, hindsight is easy and it isn’t over yet, but will those hailing Ukraine’s great victory in their posts here be happy if this ends in a negotiated resolution that is the same as could have been had pre-war with no deaths.

    In the meantime, maybe Ukraine will take Moscow by winter. Others have tried. Maybe this time.

    While it goes without saying that Putin initiated deaths through this war are inhuman, it is not clear that he is losin.

  36. Gary Jacobs

    May 26, 2023 at 9:05 am

    LoL… Davis.

    Always several steps behind current events.

    Also always an expert level cherry picker to undermine support for Ukraine.

    The irony of you citing a RUSI report that focuses solely on Russia’s adjustment to GMLRS fire by moving out of range is the simple fact that RUSI’s home country, the UK, led the way in giving Ukraine longer range cruise missiles to solve precisely this problem.

    Literally the day after the UK themselves announced that they had given Storm Shadow to Ukraine, a massive strike happened in Luhansk City, over 100km behind the front lines.

    Similar strikes have occurred in the days since all throughout the south of Ukraine along the Sea of Azov. Including just a few minutes ago in Berdyansk.

    Then France announced that they would be giving Ukraine their version of the same missile. And German MPs have begun to speak up about giving Ukraine cruise missiles as well.

    Ukraine has also been pummelling Russian armored vehicles with terminal jam proof FPV drones fitted with RPG7 warheads. Endless amounts of those videos appear on the internet with expert level trolling in slow motion as the Russian soldiers look into the camera right before impact.

    As well, still more video has emerged of Ukrainians training with Challenger 2 tanks fitted with bulldozer scoops plowing right through recreations of Russian defenses in the south of Ukraine.

    They scoop up the Dragon’s Teeth along with a mass of dirt and fill the anti vehicle trenches and then roll right over them to the other side while barely being slowed down.

    As for Bakhmut, while it’s true the Ukrainians did sacrifice a lot to keep the Russians fixated on that area… the Russians lost A Lot more…and with the Ukrainians now taking back quite a bit of the flanks, the Russians have been forced to send in reserves from other areas. Especially from Avdiivka…where the Russian offensive completely stalled, and their gains have been largely reversed by the Ukrainians.

    Bottom Line: Davis continues his losing streak about being wrong about just about every word or concept he has ever posted. At least he’s consistent.

  37. DJSmith

    May 26, 2023 at 9:11 am

    It’s quite sad to see the vast majority of comments here are based on nothing but vacuous claptrap, wishful fantasising, and ignorance at a galactic level.

    Americans are the most propagandized people on earth, and they don’t even know it. They actually believe Putin woke up on February 24 last year and decided to invade “Unprovoked”(sic).

    No — the RF economy isn’t “collapsing”. No, the RF is not running out of ammo, equipment, planes, tanks, missiles, bombs, artillery, men, et al. But Ukr. is.

    And don’t get me started on the position of the trillion dollar US Department of Attack, a cesspit of graft, corruption and the mega rich.

    Who told you all this rubbish you believe? US CORPNEWS. The US government? (which would lie about the date if it suited its purposes).

    The US is going to lose its proxy war — though it does seem determined to drag the rest of the world into a nuclear exchange and WW3.

    If not Ukr., China next. The US neocon thirst for vile imperialism and hegemony will not be sated, apparently. Not until they are all cast down into the depths.

  38. CYK

    May 26, 2023 at 9:16 am

    It is time for USA to join with China in establishing the platform for peace talk

  39. Gary Jacobs

    May 26, 2023 at 10:00 am

    Davis should check the news today as that fire in Berdyansk from the likely Storm Shadow strike is still burning with video showing ammo still cooking off.

    Similar thing happened at the 1st Storm Shadow strike in Luhansk. At that site, a Russian MP was visiting, and the guy gave an interview on camera in front of the rubble the rubble and the sound of ammo cooking off in the background… and he was still trying to claim it was a civilian site.

    Bold face lying is a feature of Russian strategy, but they get caught at it often. The Russians put out the USV video of one their navy destroyed, and claimed all USVs were defeated. Then Ukraine put one out of a USV right up to the moment of impact with the Ivan Khurs, which was clearly hit by at least one Ukrainian USV.

    The only question is what was the result. If the charge went off the same way as intended we can be sure of heavy damage. Now some Russian Milblogger sources are reporting exactly that.

    Other video this morning shows Footage of two drones waking up the residents of Russian Krasnodar
    with rather large explosions. That’s hundreds of km from the front line. Other targets in that area of Russia, such as fuel tanks, have been blowing up fairly regularly lately.

    On the EW front, Russian “Veteran’s Notes” Telegram channel describes a problem preventing Russians from using counter battery fire – ‘there’s too much Russian EW which suppresses Russian drones (mavics) preventing artillery adjusting. Meanwhile, Ukrainians are switching to other frequencies en masse to bypass Russian EW.’

    And that’s without even discussing their stockpile of military grade jam proof drones.

    Bottom line: Davis is so far behind the curve on what is actually going on it boggles the mind that he continues to post in this way.

  40. Jim

    May 26, 2023 at 10:33 am

    In one sense, it’s amazing how many Ukraine supporters are in denial… denial… denial.

    As long as low information folks can look at the map and say to themselves, “It’s a stalemate, Ukraine is holding their own,” denial will continue.

    Here, we watch as a fortified city, Bakhmut, is taken by the Russians, by a smaller force of assault teams.

    How did Russia do it?

    Give credit to the Wagner assault teams… more than a bunch of convicts… but it was the overwhelming fire power the Russians brought to bear on a fortified city.

    George S. Patton, in one of his famous dictums stated stationary or static defenses (fortified cities, as an example) can always be reduced. Patton famously went around static positions with the idea they can be cutoff and reduced after they were in the rear and passed by initially.

    Obviously, Russia was willing to take the punishment of a frontal assault… significant losses were taken, but at the end of the day Bakhmut fell.

    I suspect there won’t be an Ukraine offensive for awhile… Ukraine isn’t ready.

    Bakhmut was a strategic defeat for Ukraine… because of how much men & equipment was devoted to the battle.

    For Ukraine supporters, Ukraine has to be fully ready before any offensive… I suspect the Pentagon has told the U. S. President and his foreign policy team that a politically “forced” offensive is a recipe for military defeat & political disaster.

    When will Ukraine be ready?

    They may never be ready… Russia is hitting rear area staging grounds and supply depots hard.

    The incursion into Russia proper… Belgorod was to distract from the strategic defeat in Balkmut and to remind the Russians Ukraine is willing to attack anywhere, including Russia proper.

    But it also reveals something else… Ukraine can generate tactical advances… that’s what Belgorod was: a tactical operation.

    Can Ukraine generate an offensive at the strategic level?

    Sure, but can it be successful.

    Where does Ukraine attack?

    No one knows.

    Meanwhile the Ukrainian military is being hollowed out.

    That is a recipe for sudden military collapse… which will in turn cause political collapse in Kiev.

    Ukraine supporters will only come to their senses when denial is impossible…

    When the Ukraine military is brittle like an egg shell.

    Looks okay… then one major offensive, from either side, exposes the true state of Ukraine’s military.

    The frog in the warm water slowly turned up to boil… by the time the frog recognizes it… it’s too late.

    That’s where you sit Ukraine supporters… and you don’t even know it… until now.

  41. Tim aron

    May 26, 2023 at 12:25 pm

    Russia was never going ‘to lose’ his conflict. Putin can escalate the level of military destruction as necessary. Western military leaders know this but the civilian leaders can’t accept it and have put themselves in a corner with no viable exit.

    ‘Russia has to be defeated or else!’. Actually , eastern Ukraine didn’t matter in the greater scheme of geopolitics until western leaders gave it symbolic weight. Henry Kissinger warned decades ago never to get involved in conflicts in Eastern Europe as there are no good outcomes. 75 years of astute western leaders recognizing this astute policy has crumbled.

  42. Brett

    May 26, 2023 at 1:48 pm

    I’m not surprised that Davis ‘Kyiv Needs 3 Miracles to Reclaim Kherson’ continues to advocate for rewarding Russia for violating the basic tenant of territorial integrity that the current world order is built on and surrendering everything without even making a fight. What bothers me is his attempt to revise recent history. The Russians did not abandon Kherson without a fight. Nor did Ukraine suffer a strategic loss in defending Bakhmut. I recommend to everyone that they read the Institute for the Study of War’s review of the battle of Bakhmut published yesterday (May 24th).

    Russia is committed to defeating what it sees as a United States led World Order – therefore it is in the interest of the United States to see Russia’s ambitions humbled by supporting the brave men and women of Ukraine who defend American interests, European security, and their very survival by fighting.

    Military support from the west vastly exceeds Russian industrial capacity. A country with 11 time zones cannot reasonably commit 100% of its forces to a country 25% its population.

    Russia may have ‘won’ World War II after a humiliating setback, but they also lost the Crimean War and the Russo-Japanese war after humiliating defeats. This is not World War II where the Soviet Union only survived because of deliveries of Allied weapons.

  43. Laurence Mardon

    May 26, 2023 at 1:50 pm

    Interesting article … it might be good to mention the appointment of General Surovikin (sp?) to the command of the Donbas forces in the latter part of 2022 … it’s my understanding that he was instrumental in insisting that the Rus forces withdraw from the city of Kherson (which was situated at the narrow end of a tenuous salient difficult to re-supply) to re-group after the shambles of the initial invasion. No expert, but I believe one could see a gradual strengthening of the command structure afterward, with gradually intensifying small-scale Rus probes designed (imho) to re-train the troops & give them confidence.

    BTW, as to the ‘the authour is a Putin-puppet’ tropes in some of the comments above … what? Grow up? Get a life? Maybe stop hyperventilating and do some thinking.

  44. Jim

    May 26, 2023 at 3:52 pm

    Brett, what of self-determination, one of Wilson’s 14 points, and a concept the U. S. has claimed is still an important aspect of United States’ foreign policy.

    The Donbas population doesn’t won’t to be part of Ukraine. The Crimea population doesn’t want to be part of Ukraine.

    The elections were shams?

    For the sake of argument take those out of consideration.

    But in the Donbas, they fought government forces, in 2014 and beyond, also endured random shelling for eight years before the war started.

    How many Ukrainians loyal to the central government were going to stay in Donetsk City and risk being killed by one of their own shells?

    Look at the situation… the population of the Donbas is through with Ukraine… so, Brett, where is your respect for self-determination… or are you okay about subduing whole populations by force?

    Because that’s what Ukraine (“United States”) wants to do.

    Crimea voted long ago… take it out of consideration.

    Crimea has been under Russian jurisdiction for over eight years… do you think those loyal to the Ukrainian central government are still in Crimea… silently waiting?

    I doubt it.

    Also, there’s the dog who didn’t bark: if there was any sizable amount of backers of the Kiev central government still in Crimea… don’t you think any whisper of protest or unrest in Crimea would be reported by Western news media?

    Of course it would… but they haven’t reported any because there’s widespread appreciation & assent for Russian Nationality on Crimea… they don’t ever want to go back to Ukraine control… so, would Ukraine crush all that sentiment if it ever did get control.

    What would they be willing to do to force submission to Ukraine nationalism as defined these last eight years.

    We know the clique in Kiev has no limits on what they are willing to do…

    Does anybody challenge the idea that a majority of Crimea’s population want to be part of Russia proper?

    I guess, it’s okay to throw overboard ideas of recognizing self-determination when it goes against what your desired geopolitical objective.

    Please, don’t be carrying on about high principles.

    This never was about high principles… this was always about geopolitical objectives… local populations be damned.

  45. Neil Ross

    May 26, 2023 at 5:35 pm

    I couldn’t stomach reading the same old commentaries from the followers of this blog (maybe later), but just wanted to say thank you for the updated evaluation of the war. The western media loved the Wagner’s leader’s admission of 20,000 deaths but none published his estimate of 50,000 UAR deaths. Sad. Time will tell.

    I must admit, the boy inside this man wants to see the best Russsian tankers and fighters confront the best of West just to put some of this childish rhetoric to bed. How stupid it all seems now that America once had over 7,000 nuclear warheads stored in European countries and Russia had few if any stored in its Warsaw pact partner countries (1 U.S. nuke for every 5 soviet tanks). Who is the real aggressor in this conflict and who ultimately is fighting for its own survival. I think the reason the new confrontation with China is developing is because even the most ignorant American citizen can now understand that Russia was never a threat to Europe or the United States. Time for Hollywood to craft a new evil villain… but wait, Hollywood is making $$$$ off of China now.

  46. Sir Winston the Nazi Slayer

    May 26, 2023 at 7:28 pm

    What you taking about Davis?
    Today is 456 days of a Special Operation that was only supposed to last 3 weeks.

  47. John

    May 26, 2023 at 8:19 pm

    Defeatist ! The US prints trillions of dollars out of thin air for whatever purposes it deems necessary. Giving some billions of dollars to Ukraine will not threaten the security of the US and you know it. You should be writing for FT, Tass or Pravda. I’m sure the would be happy to have you.

  48. Clifford Nelson

    May 26, 2023 at 9:19 pm

    I wonder how many people who make these comments attacking Daniel Davis will apologize in a year when he is proven right. Armchair generals with no knowledge. I have been following the war, and the west keeps sending a new wonder weapon to Ukraine and it always fails. Never heard of success of the Javelin or the M-777, not much positive news about HIMARS since July, except one strike Christmas. What is not broadcast in the west are the setbacks of Ukraine including massive explosions in Ukrainian cities as ammo depots are hit. In fact it appears that an ammo depot with the DU shells that UK sent was hit since radiation levels have significantly increased in the area and DU is not that radioactive. Many sq kilometers of Ukraine have now been polluted by DU. How anyone that believes the F-16 will be a game changer, a plane that is basically over 40 years old when Russia has more modern planes, and what Ukraine had before, and were shot down, were significantly more recent. Please I want everyone that provided such a negative comment to apologize. If you want much more reliable news about the war I would recommend watching Youtube channels like History Legends, Weeb Union, Military Summary. If you have been depending main media western sources, you are being badly misled. And if you think this guy is biased, you will discover he is far from it. In fact I think he is still sugar coating the situation.

  49. Pete S

    May 26, 2023 at 9:37 pm

    While unlikely, it’s not entirely impossible that much of Russia’s early presumed bad performance” on the battlefield were little more than feints who’s sole purpose was to draw in western money, materiel, resources (including American soldiers) to the slaughter.

    How capable is America now compared to 2 years ago in defending Taiwan? Financially? militarily? Industrially?

    How capable is Europe in that potential endeavor?

    Germany’s economy stands at the abyss of huge raw material price increases. The rest of Europe follows.

    America itself allowed itself to get sucked into an unwinnable war far once again. This time with a very real superpower capable of keeping American firepower at bay.

    Russia is slowly strangling the Ukrainian baby in the bathtub and America’s governing class can only howl at the moon.

    Putin may be the greatest strategic thinker in 100 years.

  50. ATM

    May 26, 2023 at 9:45 pm

    The American brain trust is working on 100,000 page report on why the US failed to win all wars in recent history in spite of of having huge fan base, amazing technology, the biggest budgets and tremendous body bag counts. In the mean time allot of politicians, corporate intuitions and one percenters are laughing at the tax payers all the way to the bank. Anyone who thinks that democracy will somehow benefit from this war knows nothing. Based on past experience the tax payer will lose and America foreign policy will loose this one too.

  51. Tamerlane

    May 26, 2023 at 10:07 pm

    The Ukrainian trolls here aside, American military officers agree with Davis here that Ukraine is being attrited. This is a matter of military science.

  52. Tamerlane

    May 26, 2023 at 10:15 pm

    The Institute for the Study of War, Brett, is a rabidly Pro-Ukrainian partisan interventionist “thinktank”, not a neutral thinktank. Come on now.

  53. Martin Irish

    May 27, 2023 at 1:24 am

    Reading the comments below Daniel Davis’ piece, one is reminded of Soren Kierkegaard’s words:

    “There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn’t true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.”

    Those who disparage and mock Russia in this war would do well to remember Montgomery’s words to the House of Lords: “Rule 1, on page 1 of the book of war, is: “Do not march on Moscow.” Various people have tried it, Napoleon and Hitler, and it is no good.”

    Years ago, while reading de Segur’s “Napoleon’s Russian Campaign”, the thought came to me: “If you go looking for a fight, you can always find a fight – but the fight you get may not be the fight you want.” It is clear that NATO is spoiling for a war with Russia. We shall see, in the fullness of time, whether the fight NATO gets is the fight it wanted.

  54. johnnyjohnny

    May 27, 2023 at 1:59 am

    this guy is a ‘senior fellow’ in a cover group for associates/supporters of rand paul and the koch organization, who like trump (since on Russia’s payroll since 1987 with loans he could not get from the West) have tried to gut NATO and allow Russian retaking of Soviet era satellites. rand paul, the kochs, and others who had financial support from putin to back rightwing republican candidates from 2015-on, appreciate the rightwing thinking of putin, doing financial deals with his genocidal regime, and getting campaign contributions from his oligarchs. it’s no wonder the writer of this article creates a revisionist laughable article saying putin is winning the war, just as his country is at the edge of civil war and he’s on his own countrymen’s hit list. i’d recommend 19fortyfive to stick to credible writers, even if they disagree on mainstream issues. publishing shills for putin and U.S. extreme right crackpots is embarrassing.

  55. tester

    May 27, 2023 at 4:59 am

    well this comment section is invaded by nafo clowns

  56. edopbe

    May 27, 2023 at 5:09 am

    No — the RF economy isn’t “collapsing”.
    ? That is why they are increasing taxes and will let people work six days a week?

    No, the RF is not running out of ammo, equipment, planes, tanks, missiles, bombs, artillery, men, et al.

    ? That is why they are using ammo from the 1950ties where you can ask yourself will it explode and where (in the barrell) will it explode. Tha is why they are using T54-55 and other old stuff? Get your things together.

  57. Simon Beerstecher

    May 27, 2023 at 6:10 am

    By the end of summer Davis will as before be eating his words.

  58. Galerius

    May 27, 2023 at 8:32 am

    Negotiations for what?
    Russia needs a regime change in Kiev and a harmless Ukraine.
    These are two main strategic goals for Russia.

  59. Deryk Houston

    May 27, 2023 at 9:26 am

    Davis is bang on accurate in his assessment of what is happening. But it doesn’t matter really what any of us think. I’ve been saying from the beginning that reality on the ground will decide the truth.
    No question that Ukraine has been used and that it is now ruined and backed into a black corner. It should have followed the Minsk agreement and avoided all this misery and death. A major mistake and also Nato has blundered into a tangled mess once again as it struggles desperately to make itself relevant.
    The USA is in the hands of a man who is mentally not well and should be removed from office. Clearly not able to think clearly.
    All said…non of what I say will be admitted by many people. It is always hard to admit that one has made a horrible mistake.
    But history is about to reveal the truth.

  60. Mark

    May 27, 2023 at 9:34 am

    All the folks here who think Ukraine is winning while in reality its getting hundreds of thousands of young Ukrainians killed need to explain the end game they envision for this. Let’s assume Ukraine did launch a successful counteroffensive, how far could they get before Russia would use tactical nukes? When would the pro-war camp here tell Zelensky to let it be already?

  61. Donald Link

    May 27, 2023 at 10:32 am

    I was a civilian working for the Defense Department when the Soviet Union left Afghanistan. Many of us were not very surprised considering the facts on the ground. The Soviets did so when the math simply did not add up to succeed in controlling the country and fighting the Western supported insurgents. Ukraine is much better supplied and the math has so far been quite negative for the Russians who show a decided reluctance to engage in pitched battles. Morale among the soldiers, many drafted or mercenaries, is quite low. The West should be encouraged to show some spine and thereby discourage other adventures by future unstable dictators. Internal conditions in Russia may yet play a decisive role on how this fiasco ends.

  62. Brian M Foley

    May 27, 2023 at 11:15 am

    The history of warfare is replete with examples of seemingly improved tactical and even strategic positions that eventually led to failure. The German Ardennes offensive in late 1944, Hannibal in 216 BC, Santa Anna at the Alamo…the list is long and storied. The Russians have managed to take a town after seven months of fighting…that is hardly the harbinger of better results.

  63. Rich

    May 27, 2023 at 11:28 am

    Any article that is not 100% saying all is great for Ukraine is Kremlin propaganda. That is a foolish way to look at war. Unless the West keeps flooding Ukraine with equipment they will likely lose. What turned into a proxy war to drain Western stockpiles is quickly being flipped to Russian draining western stockpiles. War comes down to will after the initial assault. Who has more of it, Russia or the West?

  64. Deno

    May 27, 2023 at 11:49 am

    No sane person , for even 1 minute , would think that Ukraine can win against Russia….

  65. Tamerlane

    May 27, 2023 at 1:48 pm

    Exactly Mark, these trolls want the United States to be drawn into an open war with Russia. They are generally posing as American but it is clear from what they push here that they aren’t concerned whatsoever about American strategic or national interests, and only seek to expand the war. They seek a direct American war against Russia, and they openly seek regime change in Russia and the partition of that country. They seek desolation and war, and are the enemies of prudence and responsible statecraft by and for the United States.

    Of course Russia will escalate this as far as needed, as they cannot afford to be directly defeated. That should be patently obvious to any observer with a military science background, yet the bellicose shills, who don’t go themselves to volunteer fighting the Russians, wish to send our young people to the fight, our tax dollars to the fight, our efforts to the fight… all of which do nothing to actually enhance American security.

    One would think they’d have learned something from their being so wrong for the past 25 years of moronic interventions, but no, they shill for more of the smart failed policy.

  66. dan mullock

    May 27, 2023 at 2:33 pm

    Unless Mr. Davis has unique and accurate sources of intel then he has no idea what the ratio of Russian to Ukrainian deaths have been, yet describes the Ukrainian deaths as “undoubtably” higher. Really, how could he possibly know that? And then please explain how, despite the very extensively social media documented (Russian and Ukrainian) of the Russian losses as they advanced approximately one city block per week under withering Ukrainian attack by literally using human wave attacks, that the Ukrainians lost “undoubtably” more?

    I don’t oppose alternate views of the Ukrainian success in Bakhmut. But this story has no basis in data and the conclusions it claims have no logical support. Balderbash I believe is the polite disclaimer for this article.

  67. Steve

    May 27, 2023 at 3:49 pm

    MARTIN IRISH: “Those who disparage and mock Russia in this war would do well to remember Montgomery’s words to the House of Lords: “Rule 1, on page 1 of the book of war, is: “Do not march on Moscow.” Various people have tried it, Napoleon and Hitler, and it is no good.”

    Why would anyone think that Ukraine will ‘March on Moscow’? Ukraine’s primary objective is to liberate its remaining Russian-occupied territory, which increasingly appears to be within its grasp. No need to go to Moscow to achieve that goal.

  68. Som

    May 27, 2023 at 7:19 pm

    What a shallow piece. I fear if US army has leaders like this, Middle Powers will eat them for lunch. Hope Mr. Davis is more of an aberration than a rule.
    19foryfive can do with a more informed critique if they have to.

  69. Max

    May 27, 2023 at 7:59 pm

    How exactly did Russian troops abandon Kyiv and Kharkiv if they never occupied those cities? They were stopped in Irpin and Brovary in the case of Kyiv and on the Ring Road in the case of Kharkiv. Ukrainian troops defended their cities and won. They also did the same in Chernihiv, Mykolayiv, and most recently in Vuhledar.

    Once one takes this into account, the core argument of the article stops making any sense.

  70. JamesBond

    May 27, 2023 at 8:04 pm

    Well, this was always going to be the case absent the economic collapse in Russia Joe was pursuing, no matter how much aid the west pumped into Ukraine.
    Ukraine cannot stand on its own two feet against Russia in the long term.
    Much like Afghanistan, might as well try to fight gravity.
    Unless you have wings, you always return to the same place.

  71. Neil Ross

    May 27, 2023 at 9:00 pm

    Maybe China really is providing funding for Russia in this war in the hope that NATO will get directly involved. When that happens, say goodbye to Taiwan. Just providing a little fuel for the fire for all those paranoid Americans that think their freedom is under attack.

  72. Carlos Danger

    May 28, 2023 at 9:22 am

    This site is appropriately named “1945”. That was the most recent year in which Russia experienced any military success. Mainly by being propped up economically by the US and Britain, and by Russia’s usual practice of throwing excessive Russian lives away incompetently in combat.

  73. Anonymous

    May 28, 2023 at 10:06 am

    1. One fascinating thing to me has been to look at the media coverage of the takeover of Bakhmut city proper. There was a clear, week by week progression from area to area. And it got zero coverage in the media. You had to follow the “neutral” (leaning to pro Russian) YouTubers like DPA, Weeb Union, or Military Summary, or the Telegram channels themselves of Russian sources like Rybar or Remy to see the story.

    I would caution the “Russia is winning” crowd with all the previous overestimates and I noted that the MSM had zero about this block by block takeover. ISW also completely ignored a huge, fascinating story.

    If you want to learn about war, don’t you think there are some lessons on defense/attack in cities from Bakhmut? Or even of how to use non-trained troops? I’ve done combat town at Quantico…and Bakhmut was hella bigger and more real than shooting with flash suppressors.

    The advance started from the north and east and moved into the city, then to the river, then crossed the river, then to the railroad, then crossed the railroad. Then to “The Citadel” (named by a YTer but adopted by the forces) of high rises. Then to the parts of The Citadel (Domino last). Then to the Mig stadium and high rises. But NONE of this (very fascinating) creep through the city was reported. Just battle ongoing in Bakhmut and even the night before it fell, the daily stories (and I use Google News with last 24 hours filter) was all about Ukraine winning and having turned the tide with flank attacks. Not even “race against time”. Just WINNING!

    I told the pro Russia types, that I would wait and see who proved right on Bakhmut…and the YTers, basing reports on Telegram channels and geolocated videos were clearly better than NYT, ISW, etc. Not just a little bit better or a better prediction. But the MSM totally not covering the story as it happened.

    2. Minor thing, but I don’t like the two uses of “literally”. The author correctly does not use the term to mean figuratively. However, he still uses it as a stressor incorrectly. You should use it only when something that might be figurative needs to be clarified. For example “literally shit your pants in surprise” (if actual defecation happened). Not as a general stressor. So, not “literally ignored”. No, just “ignored”. Damn millennials. Get off my lawn.

    3. Decent article. I can’t comment too much on the land battle, grand strategy stuff. Independent ops in all male part of the USN is more my background. Little bit of JTF stuff where you see staffs or the like. But way more time operating, dealing with the troops (good and bad), fixing the gear, etc. It’s funny how every Internet war gamer thinks they are Sherman or Jackson. Or maybe it’s just the whole USA/USAFA land orientation. Bases and clear control from the rear and coordinated objectives. Not off doing your own thing, with no radio comms back to HQ, even to QSL orders (gotta keep EMCON).

  74. IDAREU

    May 28, 2023 at 10:14 am

    Seems this Gentleman has never fought for his life, If so I dont believe he would just brush off the Ukrainians resolve.
    And he thinks Russia just figured it out over night,If the new commanders had more intelligence they wouldn’t be the new commanders.

  75. Zero

    May 28, 2023 at 11:18 am

    “The trend of war is shifting toward Moscow, regardless of how upset that may make many in the West.”

    Ha ha! Where exactly, Mr. Davis, did your article provide evidence for this wild assertion?

    The Kremilin attempted to invade large Ukrainian cities Kiev, Kharkiv, and Kherson–and they gravely miscalculated, so they retreated with heavy losses. Then Ukraine counter-assaulted and took back all of Kharkiv. During the Winter and early Spring, the battle lines have hardly moved, but Russia has been losing many more men in the meat-grinder of of towns like Bakhmut than Ukraine–but more importantly, Russia has been losing equipment en masse–tanks, IFVs, aircraft, artillery, drones–even shoulder held ATGMs.

    During this attritional warfare, the attacker Russia has been losing 5-1 or more men vs. Ukraine–and those lost have been the best of the Russian Army–all who are left now are inexperienced mobiks.

    While this apparent ‘stalemate’ which has devastated Russian forces ‘offensives’ has been happening, Ukraine has been training new assault groups in the West on relatively advanced Western weapons. In the past 3 months, newly trained men and materiel has been accumulated. Ukraine now has a formidable air defense including Patriots, NSAMS, Geppards, Leopards, Abrams, Stryker’s, Bradley’s, Marder’s, Himars, HARM’s, Storm Shadows, JDAM’s and soon F-16s.

    This counter-offensive has already started in the form of ‘shaping’ operations to take out enemy radar/air defenses, and artillery. Soon Ukraine will strike a massive blow, and Russia will be unable to stop it.

    It is difficult or impossible to tell the difference between an incompetent military analyst and a paid Kremlin shill.

  76. yo

    May 28, 2023 at 12:47 pm

    how can a fascist pupett be authorized to write a column here ?

  77. David Chang

    May 28, 2023 at 12:58 pm

    God bless people in the world.

    Democratic Party is the boss of atheism parties, Communist Party is the underboss, SPD is the consigliere, and Nazis is the capo.

    Scholars of atheism believe that the Communist Party is friend, not enemy, they think socialism warfare is competition, so they teach more and more atheism scholars. Therefore, atheism consulting companies such as the Wilson Institute, CSIS, and the American Enterprise Institute oppose the Communist Party with atheism, and continue to promote socialism and evolution to make more and more people believe atheism.

    Democratic Party continues to cooperate with the Communist Party, incite more wars. When Japan atheism scholars promoted Japan’s socialism East Asia Union plan to the people before World War II, the U.S. Democratic Party did not oppose it, but instigated Japan to implement the Socialism Union plan.

    After Democratic Party helped the Communist Party occupy mainland China, Democratic Party helped the CCP with weapon technology and US dollars, although after the Tiananmen murder, the cooperation with the CCP was suspended. But the Clinton administration partnered with the Communist Party to research biochemistry once again. So the cooperation between the Democratic Party and the Communist Party in the 20th century will cause nuclear war in the 21st century.

    The civil war of the Republic of China is one of the wars of atheism education. The cold war is a break time. The second half of the Second World War will be the next nuclear war. Because the Taipei authorities believe atheism and want to replace the war with nuclear weapons, it will be impossible for Taiwan Province to prevent radiation-contaminated. Even though many people this year promote that the army of the Republic of China is working hard to prepare for war, the vast majority of people in Taiwan province and Fujian province believe atheism, and the people serve as soldiers and policemen for money. So they oppose the unclassified report released by the Rand ten years ago, and they also opposed the ground combat in Taiwan Province.

    But Retired Lieutenant Colonel Davis and Dr. Holmes are correct. After Ukraine withdrew from the Soviet Union, Ukraine’s wrong strategy is to the present, so it is impossible for Ukraine to remedy the wrong strategy by tactics.

    Retired Lt. Col. Davis explains the tactic and strategy problems of Ukraine with the Bulge battle. This analogy is correct by military principles, and it is also the reason why the Republic of China cannot attack Hebei Province from Fujian Province with own military. Sadly, the plan of the Republic of China to counteroffensive the CCP is the same as that of Ukraine and German. They all want to assemble their troops to break through the enemy’s defense walls and traps.

    The U.S. Marine Corps explained Russia’s manoeuvre tactic in the initial battle, and the Wagner also executed manoeuvre tactic. Therefore, the Russian army completed the strategy that Russia President Putin announced, forcing Ukraine to withdraw from the area around Crimea and keeping the supply route from Moscow to Crimea.

    Therefore, Ukraine President Zelenskyy causes irreparable damage to the Ukraine army. Although socialism Russia also sacrificed a large number of soldiers, the reporter found that both the Russian regular army and mercenaries retained veterans, and most of the casualties were new recruits. This is also the suggestion that the retired Lt. Col. Davis gives to Ukraine. Ukraine should avoid urban combat, deploy the remaining troops in other areas, and let the armies of the two countries conduct combat directly.

    As the military thoughts of Sun Tzu, he thinks that the strategy and the front of the battle cannot be changed easily, and tactics should not cause danger to the strategy, because the danger of maneuver tactics are consuming the country’s supplies quickly, which is also an inherent danger of blitz tactic. Many people think of blitz tactic as strategy. This kind of wrong thought is like declaring that cavalry charge is the priority strategy, infantry and archers must be coordinated with cavalry charge. If the infantry and archers followed the cavalry charge, the infantry and archers would tire more quickly, causing the loss of the front line, and making dangers to the commander.

    All wars is attrition war, so manoeuvre is a tactic adapted to war. Manoeuvre strategy or manoeuvre war is an unknown hypothesis except nuclear weapons.

    To avoid the fog Clausewitz says, Sun Tzu says:
    “To ensure that your whole host may withstand the brunt of the enemy’s attack and remain unshaken — this is affected by manoeuvre direct and indirect.”
    “In all fighting, the direct method shall be used for joining battle, but indirect methods will be needed in order to secure victory.”

    So scouting is to make a faster attack than the enemy.

    Some people think the indirect methods of Sun Tzu is the Indirect approach of Liddell Hart, but the indirect methods of Sun Tzu are manoeuvre tactics of all troops. This misunderstanding is due to a wrong English translation. So people don’t blame yourself please. Because some words in Chinese do not have only one meaning, and these have several meanings after being  a vocabulary or phrase.

    I hope that the Ukraine people learn the lesson of the past 100 years and repent to God, because the army, navy and air force should fight by laws of God and military principles. People should not worship any weapon.

    God created photons and ether, not created bright and gloomy. So God teaches us to obey Ten Commandments, and God waits for us to repent.

    Mr. Kissinger says, “I look at the historical and moral motivations of the people involved.”

    “The American view of itself is righteousness. We believe we are unselfish, that we have no purely national objectives, and also that our national objectives are achieved in foreign policy with such difficulty that when we expose them to modification through discussion, we get resentful of opponents. We expect that our views will carry the day, not because we think we are intellectually superior, but because we think the views in themselves should be dominant. It’s an expression of strong moral feelings coupled with great power. But it’s usually not put forward as a power position.”

    “the two world wars should have taught that the price one pays even with conventional technology is out of proportion to most objectives that are achievable.” “the growth within each society through cyber and biology to intrude into the territory of the other, this kind of war will destroy civilization.”

    So the Democratic-Republicans Party should believe only God is justice. 

    But presidential candidate didn’t convince the people in America to confess and repent to God and correct foreign policy. At least people in the U.S. could defend their country if the foreign policy of the United States is corrected to the moral policy of General George Washington and Commander Abraham Lincoln. If other countries oppose God, people in the U.S. would pray to God and prepare for war.

    God is waiting for us.

    God bless America.

  78. thierry bruno

    May 28, 2023 at 1:28 pm

    I wanted to point out that if the United States hadn’t provoked this war, Ukraine wouldn’t be where it is today. But I’ve just read all these comments insulting you and mistaking bladders for lanterns. I had no idea that propaganda was so effective in your country (I’m French). Your commentators get their information from a single source and have no critical mind. No wonder your government has been able to launch all these dirty wars since 2001. But guys, wake up, you haven’t won any of these wars. America has caused 4 million deaths, 30 to 60 million refugees – and that’s from Brown University. From Bush to Biden, all your presidents should be prosecuted for war crimes. American warmongers, give the world a break, we’ll all be better off.

  79. David N. Tate

    May 28, 2023 at 2:11 pm

    Manpower is not really the issue for the Ukraine. The Ukrainian population is at around 40 million people. This should provide them with a pool of around 5 million young men of fighting age. The casualty rate is around 10,000 per month. Materiel and funding is the issue. The United States and European Union have written the Ukraine a “blank check” and are providing funds and materiel in large amounts. The United States is already on the hook for over $1 Trillion so far. Additionally, the US and NATO are providing “combat multipliers” that includes training support, intelligence, and targeting assets. The United States and NATO can replace Ukrainian equipment. Additionally, NATO has over 250,000 troops on the ground near the Russian border. This ties down a considerable number of Russian units that could be used against the Ukraine. The Russians simply can’t replace lost materiel and equipment. The Russians simply can’t defend themselves against the most powerful and relentless military alliance on Earth. It just isn’t possible.

  80. Joey

    May 28, 2023 at 3:04 pm

    Mr. Davis, like myself and the majority of the commenters on this website, we do not appreciate your analysis. Ukraine are superior fighters in every way and there is no way that they can lose. Especially with the assistance of vastly superior American weaponry. Ukraine kills 10 Russians for every Ukrainian lost. Patriotic Heroes like Senator Lindsay Graham have said that this is a great deal for the US because we are killing so many Russians. Once Kyiv takes Moscow, we can begin the breakup of the Russian Federation into dozens of small countries. All controlled by NATO/US/EU. We must also implement a similar plan to what we did to Germany after WW2. The complete demoralization of the Russian people. They will be ashamed to call themselves Russian. And we can finally bring a new world order alliance to wage war against China. Slava Ukraina.

  81. peter

    May 28, 2023 at 5:05 pm

    Well the author has a good point here. Just reflect on the fact that acording to western media , Some idiotic under sanctions russians, conquered Bachmut with a bunch of badly trained and equipped dirty prisoners , leaded by a retarded cook against all the nato and eu sponsored modern weaponry, satelite info , logistics , brave super strong ukrainian soldiers and western freedom hero fighters. All of that happened while the red army is hidding in holes , waiting scared for the mighty `easter that was` counter offensive , unable to release a `shock & awe` Bagdad USA style bombing against Kiev. Meanwhile western ukraine has a nightlife and luxury consumers to envy…. i dont think it was the case in Belgrade or Bagdad during war time…

  82. Frank McGar

    May 28, 2023 at 7:10 pm

    Anyone who thinks Ukraine is on the verge of victory, you should look up EUCOM Commander General Cavoli’s testimony UNDER OATH to Congress.

    “Much of the Russian military has not been affected negatively by this conflict.”

    In addition he says their undersea activity and patrols in the Atlantic are at a higher level than we’ve seen in years. Doesn’t sound like the behavior of a crumbling military force, does it? They’ve been able to manage the situation in Ukraine without committing much of their regular Army at all. Wagner, a relatively small professional army of 20k or so, has been doing much of heavy lifting in the “hot zones.” But even then, they are mostly doing sweeping operations after they overwhelm the frontlines with massive shelling operations, where they have about a 5 to 1 artillery advantage (or more). The idea that Russia is losing more bodies than Ukraine w/ such a massive artillery advantage is just nonsensical. Here’s another quote:

    “Russia remains a formidable and unpredictable threat that will challenge U.S. and European interests for the foreseeable future. Russian air, maritime, space, cyber, and strategic forces have not suffered significant degradation in the current war.”

    Still think Russia is totally collapsing and on the verge of getting wrecked? Ukraine will will never be able to overcome the artillery disadvantage, no matter how much NATO sends their way. NATO can’t keep up, they weren’t set up to compete with the kind of artillery production Russia is pumping out. It takes two seconds to look this information up. Anyone saying otherwise is either a shill for the Pentagon, or wildly misinformed.

  83. Ash Subban

    May 28, 2023 at 7:16 pm

    Your article although researched omitted 4. critical factors & 2 ?s ie 1. Wagner Group Leaders own admission that Russia is losing this War & 2. Russia’s inability to protect its Assets in occupied Ukraine & also in its own territory. 3. Ukraine’s sacrifice in Bakhmut was strategic by giving it time to re-equip it’s strategy both in 4IR Arms including HIMARS Patriot & now F16s.
    5. Hows the Mfs 3 day War going by the way?
    6. What are your thoughts about losing the Moskva & now Ivan Khurs ..2 Capital Ships as an Ex Military Man btw .
    U know that 1 Patriot took down 2 x eWarfare Choppers & an Su-35 not forgetting these Mfs Hypersonic Missile. This caused Putin to shit his Arse out in regards to the latter. Bakhmut was a strategic Goal conceded by Ukraine but it did take out the Russian Goalkeeper

  84. Posa Sarastro

    May 29, 2023 at 12:03 am

    Davis hasn’t even mentioned that the Russians have almost complete control of the skies. Every day Russian glide bombs and missiles take out 5-10 weapons warehouses, ammo depots and fuel storage facilities. They’re blowing up Western armaments as fast as it’s delivered. That’s why there is no Spring Offensive… meanwhile Russia is taking strategic transport hubs and highways. Ukraine is losing 500 soldiers every day. And Russian regular forces have hardly engaged the battlefield. It’s over for the Ukie Army. Russia will have its way.

  85. HenryJonesJR

    May 29, 2023 at 8:34 am

    Russia was never going to lose the war in Ukraine. It is beyond reason to expect the greatest nuclear power on Earth to be defeated by Ukraine despite being funded and armed by the US and NATO. No serious military strategist ever thought different. The Western MSM via the MIC / CIA has been feeding propaganda to the masses fro the beginning of this conflict. Ultimately, Russia will crush Ukraine and NATO will never establish a foothold there. Just wait and see ….

  86. LetsGoBrandon

    May 29, 2023 at 12:21 pm

    Someone tell this to war monger Lindsey Graham. He’s more than willing to fight to the last Ukrainian. Fact is he’s been an active participant in countless war crimes in last several decades.

  87. Tamerlane

    May 29, 2023 at 3:06 pm

    dan mullock:

    The reason Davis and other fellow military officers believe that Bakhmut substantially attrited Ukraine more than Russia is that Russia had fire control over Bakhmut for most of the battle. They had the Ukrainians in a kesselschlacht, a cauldron encirclement where they exercised fire control over supply lines into the city. They also did not primarily use Russian soldiers to take the city, but Wagner mercenaries/penal battalions. The battle is also the 4th in a series of battles in which Ukrainian forces have been surrounded and annihilated—each in turn larger and larger battles of attrition. In wars of attrition, Napoleon’s axiom rings true, God favors the side with the larger battalions—and here that means: Russia’s.

  88. Charles Ray

    May 29, 2023 at 3:57 pm

    The amazing thing is the author never got fragged.

  89. Douglas Proudfoot

    May 29, 2023 at 4:00 pm

    Everything observable seems to point to the condition of the Russian Army being far closer to World War I collapse than World War II victory. The Russians could only provide one tank for their May 9 victory parade in Red Square, a World War II vintage T-34. There are persistent reports of Russian draftees sent to the front with minimal equipent and training, and without officers that stay with them when they get shelled by artillery.

    Russian artillery barrels are wearing out, but the Russian Army has no maintenance system to replace them. Units in storage have been left out in Russian weather for decades, with almost no maintenance at all. Russia is buying ammunition from North Korea and Iran. Neither is known as a quality supplier.

    The Ukrainians are using Storm Shadow stealth cruise missiles to hit targets hundreds of miles from the front. They also have AIM-160 minature decoy/jammer missiles to confuse Russian air defenses. Unlike World War II, Russians don’t have 40,000 extra Allied trucks and jeeps to carry supplies. They depend on railroads and supply dumps that are easy targets for HIMARS and Storm Shadow missiles. The longer the range of the missiles, the longer the haul that the trucks have to make with the supplies.

    The AFU has 9 newly trained and equipped armored brigades to tear big holes in Russian lines. Most of the equipment and the trained soldiers from Putin’s initial invasion have been destroyed. The Russians only have a lot of poorly trained and motivated bodies to stop the coming offensive.

  90. Hans Dokman

    May 29, 2023 at 4:55 pm

    Why the desire from the USA to win over the Russian, why is the USA is fighting in Europe?
    The ‘ West ‘ under the lead of the USA destroyed already Irak, Libië and others . Fight in your own continent, Europe wants peace no war and don’t forget that Russia is a European country. Go for peace !

  91. Charles

    May 29, 2023 at 8:29 pm

    Weird weird argument. “When Russia is faced with a city battle they with draw, so Ukraine should have withdrawn from Bakhmut”.


    This makes no sense and contradicts what happened. Russia advanced into Bakhmut. Ukraine slowly slowly withdrew.

    If Russia always withdraws, why should Ukraine withdraw?

    Is this guy really a military strategic thinker?

  92. bert33

    May 30, 2023 at 11:03 am

    So, today they announced that moscow has come under drone attack, the pictures don’t look too bad but it’s the principle of the thing, and russia has flyables that are waaay better than drones and easily capable of hitting ‘keev’, or any piece of infrastructure inside the borders of now-smaller ukraine with a high probability of an accurate hit. Russia’s MIC is able, capable, technologically proficient, and in production. Civilians in the ukraine will suffer the most in the coming months as infrastructure is destroyed, roads are made impassable, commerce becomes impossible, and probably no power, water, internet, fuel etc. God help western europe if the war gets bigger.
    ‘Don’t poke the bear’, they said. ‘Here, hold my beer’, said Zelensky.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *