If the Democratic Party were behind the rash of prosecutions and civil lawsuits being brought against him, as former President Donald Trump claims, it couldn’t find a better wedge between him and Independent voters. Trump’s favorability rating remains at 38.7% on the Real Clear Politics average, with 55% viewing him as unfavorable.
His mean tweets and rude statements endeared him with his blue-collar base; however, it turned Independent voters against him. A November 2020 Morning Consult exit poll found that 44% voted against Trump in 2020 and not for Biden. Trump is the kind of person who you either love or hate without much in between.
The former president’s lack of discipline with his mouth consistently has gotten him in trouble.
Trump’s Comments About Women Could Hurt Him
His deposition in the E. Jean Carroll lawsuit. The jury found that Trump did not rape Carroll as she had claimed; however, his statement about the Billy Bush “Access Hollywood” tape in which he was asked about his comment about grabbing women “by the —–” likely caused the jury to rule against him.
Trump cavalierly said that’s what stars have done “if you look over the last million years.” That comment could come back to haunt him with female voters in 2024, particularly those who do not pay attention to the details of the case.
The jury awarded Carroll $5 million, declaring he sexually abused her. Trump fired back on Truth Social, suggesting that she was not his type and that she made up the rape allegation in her 2019 book to sell copies.
However, it is unlikely to deter Trump’s ardent supporters of both sexes from voting for him.
“I do not believe this woman’s claim that she was raped by Donald Trump. If something that horrific happens to you it would be a horror you would never forget. The exact date and occurrence would be seared into your mind,” Kansas Trump voter Marge Ryan told the BBC. “But I think this trial will affect his chances. Not so much because of the people that voted for him before – I think they’ll continue voting for him – but it’s the women that are on the fence about him. They’ll walk away from this verdict, thinking that he’s guilty in their mind.”
Ryan continued: “I worry that there will be people that won’t vote for him because they don’t like his personality. I feel like he is a compassionate person – and he cares tremendously for the United States. If I had my way, Trump would win for four years, and then [Florida Governor] Ron DeSantis would come in for four years or eight years.”
Voters Concerned About Trump Indictment, More Worried About Biden’s Cognitive Issues
Polling done in the immediate aftermath of Trump’s indictment on business fraud charges found that more Americans said they would not vote for him.
Forty-seven percent said in an Ipsos Poll taken after the indictment they thought that Trump should suspend his campaign.
Trump’s sole saving grace at this point is the fact Americans have become increasingly concerned about President Joe Biden’s cognitive abilities.
The recent Washington Post/ABC Poll found that Americans are more concerned about the incumbent president’s ability to function in the office than they are with Trump.
It showed Biden trailing Trump by six points, 44% for Trump to 38% for Biden.
If Biden appears to become worse and more cognitively impaired that could be the one thing that saves Trump’s re-election bid.
John Rossomando is a senior analyst for Defense Policy and served as Senior Analyst for Counterterrorism at The Investigative Project on Terrorism for eight years. His work has been featured in numerous publications such as The American Thinker, Daily Wire, Red Alert Politics, CNSNews.com, The Daily Caller, Human Events, Newsmax, The American Spectator, TownHall.com, and Crisis Magazine. He also served as senior managing editor of The Bulletin, a 100,000-circulation daily newspaper in Philadelphia, and received the Pennsylvania Associated Press Managing Editors first-place award in 2008 for his reporting.