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Prediction: Donald Trump Will Quit Running for President

Donald Trump. Image Credit: Creative Commons.
Donald Trump

Remember Anthony Scaramucci? The flash in the pan White House communications director under President Donald Trump?

Well, Scaramucci is back in the news with a prediction that Trump is “stressed” about his federal indictment and that, accordingly, Trump will withdraw from the 2024 presidential campaign.

Yeah, Trump will withdraw from the race and I’m the Queen of England.

Don’t count on it, guys. Trump is a lot of things, but he’s not a quitter. He’ll ride this thing out to the end.

Here’s what Scaramucci said

Scaramucci served just 11 days in the Trump administration before being fired. Now Scaramucci is claiming some insight into Trump’s mindset.

“I know President Trump’s personality reasonably well,” Scaramucci said. “Remember it wasn’t just 11 days for me, it was 71 campaign stops and a full year’s worth of work.” (Fair enough.) “He does not like this, he is stressed about it.”

I don’t doubt that Trump is stressed about the indictment. The charges are significant. He’s facing prison time. His campaign is going to be all jacked up and interrupted, no matter what. But I don’t agree with Scaramucci’s conclusion.

“I think [Trump] ends up eventually dropping out of the race,” Scaramucci said. “I don’t think he makes it to the Iowa caucus.” Scaramucci continued, “There’s more Republican criticism and that indictment is very damning.”

Personally, I have trouble wrapping my head around the idea that Trump would walk away. Based on precedent, it’s unfathomable to me that Trump would just call it a day and focus on his legal troubles. I don’t think that sort of behavior is in Trump’s constitution.

I also have my doubts about Scaramucci as a source. The guy was fired after just 11 days in the Trump administration – and then proceeded to become a vocal critic of Trump.

Donald Trump won’t quit

Trump is 77 years old and still running around like some 25-year-old. He still picks every fight, still engages over every conceivable slight. The idea that he would capitulate because he was charged for mishandling classified documents doesn’t track for me.

Granted, Trump will need to divest considerable resources away from the campaign, and towards addressing the charges, which have the former president facing a terminal prison sentence.

But Trump’s base is going to be in his corner, fully sold on the idea that the witch-hunt against Trump is in full effect.

Expect for Donald Trump feed off of his base’s indignation and anger and to mount a 2024 campaign full of vitriol and spite.  

And bear in mind: Trump and his base are of the impression that the DOJ charges are politically motivated, designed to interfere with Trump’s ability to mount a meaningful opposition to President Biden’s reelection campaign.

I suspect Trump would view his own withdrawal from the 2024 race as giving Biden and the Democrats exactly what they want. It’s much easier to imagine Trump staying in the race for the sole purpose of nettling his political rivals, making them beat him in the electoral college rather than in the courtrooms on an administrative technicality.

Trump is in serious legal trouble – but that won’t force him from the race. He’ll run to the end.

Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.

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Written By

Harrison Kass is a Senior Defense Editor at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, he joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison has degrees from Lake Forest College, the University of Oregon School of Law, and New York University’s Graduate School of Arts & Sciences. He lives in Oregon and regularly listens to Dokken.