Donald Trump is securing his hold on the GOP nomination while becoming less electable in the general election – a phenomenon that could spell disaster for the Republican agenda.
Pushing the dual-Trump trends were last month’s DOJ indictments, which have Trump facing 37 federal charges and a prospective prison sentence. On the one hand, the indictments have Trump garnering more and more support amongst the right, who see their demagogic leader as the victim in a DOJ witch-hunt. On the other hand, Trump is sullying his image further and further, in the eyes of the median public.
“This push-and-pull, yin-and-yang dynamic, with Republicans growing more attached to a candidate harder to elect, may yet prove decisive in both contests,” POLITICO reported. “The divide between GOP opinion of Trump and the way the middle of the electorate regards him is deep and abiding,”
Emblems of the problem
After the indictments, Trump granted Bret Baier an interview. The interview did not go well in conventional terms – Trump offered a pathetic excuse for failing to return classified documents (his personal belongs were mixed in with the classified documents and he needed time to sort through everything), which implicitly acknowledged that there was a failure to adhere to protocols. Trump also used the national television slot to reiterate that he won the 2020 election – an election that he lost…by seven million votes…three years ago…
The interview itself, and the reaction to the interview, underscore the divide between conservative perceptions of Trump and general perceptions of Trump.
“Republicans view Trump as a victim, the broader electorate a malefactor; GOP voters find him charming and entertaining, other voters needlessly insulting and controversial; for Republicans, he’s a bold truth-tell, for everyone else, he’s not trustworthy,” POLITICO reported.
The interview and the DOJ indictments aren’t the only example highlighting (or excacerbating) the divide. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s indictment against Trump (relating to a hush money payment to porn actress Stormy Daniels) gave the former president a bump in his GOP primary race. The indictment actually improved Trump’s standing. Probably in part because the charges were ridiculous and created a tangible argument in favor of Trump’s long time assertion that dark forces were out to get him. Yet the majority of voters still approved of the Bragg indictment. An Economist/YouGov poll found that 54 percent of all voters approved and a plurality of independents approved – whereas over two-thirds of Republicans disapproved.
The same thing happened on the documents case. A Harvard/Harris poll found that 60 percent of independents think the federal government has a good case, while only 30 percent of Republicans feel similarly.
Donald Trump could still win
The remarkable thing is that despite Trump’s tendency to repulse the middle of the electorate, he still has a fair shot at winning a general election.
Why?
Because President Biden has the same problem. Independents don’t like Biden either. Just like in 2016 and 2020, Trump could be propped up by the weakness of his opponent.
You’d think Democrats would recognize the weakness of Biden and course-correct. But that’s not happening. Democrats seem set to ‘Bernie Lomax’ Biden through the 2024 campaign and just see what happens. Voters aren’t exactly thrilled about it – which is why RFK, Jr. is polling around twenty percent. But Dems are betting on Biden being able to beat Trump one more time.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor opinion writer at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.
From 19FortyFive
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