Former President Donald Trump has set a dubious record in a recent Monmouth University net favorability poll, with the lowest rating ever recorded: negative 27 points.
The poll found that 36 percent of US adults hold a favorable opinion of Donald Trump, while 63 percent hold an unfavorable view. No surprises there. But does it really matter?
Results of the poll
“It appears that Trump’s unpopularity has hit its highest level in the history of Monmouth polling the question, based on previous figures also published on Thursday,” Newsweek reported. “Those figures come as Trump remains the frontrunner for the Republican Party’s 2024 presidential nomination and the possibility that Trump could be indicted for a third time on Friday.”
In the poll, 15 percent of respondents held a very favorable view of Trump; 21 percent held a somewhat favorable view of Trump. Meanwhile, 13 percent held a somewhat unfavorable view of Trump; and a whopping 50 percent had a very unfavorable view.
So, half the country despises Trump. We knew that.
And it may be a facet of our partisan times as much as any sort of reflection on Trump’s divisive character. Modern Democrats are inclined to hate the opposition leaders. Ditto, modern Republicans are inclined to hate the opposition leaders.
Granted, Trump seems to inspire a more passionate species of hate than most politicians. But it’s not like Biden is faring well in net favorability polls. Last July 2022, Biden had a net favorability of about -20.
The president’s numbers have rebounded to about -12, much better than Trump’s current numbers, but not exactly the bell of the ball.
Does it matter for Donald Trump?
Trump is running away with the GOP primary.
We can expect that Trump will earn his third consecutive GOP nomination for president, which tracks with the Monmouth polls. If 36 percent of respondents held a favorable view of Trump, we can assume that 36 percent comes, almost exclusively, from GOP primary voters.
Well, 36 out of 50 isn’t bad if you’re trying to win a primary. And then, once you win the primary, a portion of that remaining 14 out of 50 is going to weight their options Trump or Biden and decide that Trump is their best bet.
So, Trump’s low popularity probably isn’t as dire as it looks – it should be sufficient to propel him through the primary, at which point it’s a whole new ball game.
“When it comes to a 2024 match up between Biden and Trump,” Newsweek reported, “36 percent of respondents said they would definitely vote for the president and 11 percent said they would probably vote for him. However, 46 percent said they would definitely not vote for Biden and 6 percent said they probably wouldn’t.” That means the polls suggest Trump has a lane to the presidency. 52 percent – a majority – indicated they were not keen on voting for Biden.
Can Trump scoop up that entire 52 percent. It’s unlikely.
Trump has ran twice for president and never won the popular vote. Actually, the only Republican to win a popular vote in the 21st century is Bush in 2004, so don’t expect Trump to do it in 2024.
But if you’re thinking a low net favorability rating from some Monmouth University polls suggests trouble for Trump, you may be thinking wishfully.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor and opinion writer at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.
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