Donald Trump says jail wouldn’t stop him from running for president.
Well, wouldn’t that be fun?
Lord help us.
What is Donald Trump Thinking?
I’ve been clear that I think it’s harmful to America that the Joe Biden Justice Department broke the glass on the tradition of not targeting political opponent, particularly when that same Justice Department at least attempted to give the president son a sweetheart deal.
Those are the kind of concurring events we expect from a third-world country.
But I’ve also thought it’s probably in the best interest of Republicans if Donald Trump isn’t their standard bearer.
Trump running a campaign from behind bars might be the worst of both worlds. At the same time, it would be quite a spectacle to behold at a time when it’s getting more difficult to tell real politics apart from a bad season of “Scandal” or “House of Cards.”
What He Said
During an interview, talk show host John Fredericks asked Trump if he would stop his campaign if he was convicted and in jail.
“Not at all. There’s nothing in the Constitution to say that it could,” Trump replied. “Even the radical left crazies are saying, ‘No, that wouldn’t stop!’ And it wouldn’t stop me either.”
Trump has already been indicted on about 40 counts regarding the classified documents federal case led by special counsel Jack Smith. He’s facing a separate federal case, also led by Smith, regarding his challenge to the 2020 election outcome and the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol riot.
Trump was indicted earlier this year by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg on charges stemming from allegedly paying hush money to cover up an affair with adult star Stormy Daniels. Meanwhile, Fulton County, Georgia District Attorney Fani Willis is expected to indict Trump for his challenge of the election outcome in Georgia.
Of the existing indictments, Trump’s Manhattan trial date is set for March 2024, and the federal classified documents case in Florida is scheduled for May 2024. So, it’s plausible that a jury or two juries could convict Trump before the Republican National Convention even occurs.
Some History To Consider
Billionaires and socialists aren’t often compared. But in the 1920 presidential campaign, Socialist Party candidate Eugene Debs ran for president from a prison cell in Atlanta,
Inmate No. 9653. It was supposed to be a 10-year sentence under the Woodrow Wilson’s regime sedition law over his opposition to World War I.
Trump might insist on being Inmate No. 1.
More likely, given his status as an ex-president with Secret Service protection, he might be sentenced to house arrest and an ankle bracelet—which would still limit his capacity to campaign.
Debs, like Donald Trump, was a big personality and scored about 1 million votes from behind bars, or 3.5 percent of the vote. Percentage wise, Debs did better than notable third-party candidates Ralph Nader in 2000 and Gary Johnson in 2016.
If he’s sentenced before the Republican National Convention in July 2024, the delegates gathering in Milwaukee might attempt to choose another nominee. Though, that could cause an uprising among the grassroots of the party.
Even then, Trump–like Debs–could run as a third-party candidate.
If Trump ran from prison either as the Republican nominee or as a third-party candidate, he would get an astoundingly higher vote total than Debs even if he doesn’t win.
But what if a convicted Donald Trump managed to win?
As I wrote in a more speculative piece in April, the state cases pose a much bigger question about the fate of the country and transition of power in January 2025 should a convicted Trump win in November 2024. This speculation takes a new turn since Trump has now stated he would run even if imprisoned.
That’s because if Smith scores a conviction against Trump on either the documents or the Jan. 6 case, Trump could conceivably be elected and just pardon himself.
But a president can only pardon federal cases. So, if Trump is convicted in the Georgia state case, Republican Gov. Brian Kemp would likely pardon Trump to let him do the job Americans elected him to do.
But if he’s convicted in New York, it’s not likely Democrat New York Gov. Kathy Hochul would have such leniency. This could open all types of federal vs. state issues. It could be a scenario where a newly-sworn in Trump would federalize the New York State National Guard to release him from prison.
This gets back to why I tongue-in-cheek says “won’t that be fun.”
If we’ve learned anything, it’s that no scenario involving Trump is too implausible.
Barbara Joanna Lucas is a writer and researcher in Northern Virginia. She has been a healthcare professional, political blogger, is a proud dog mom, and news junkie.
From 19FortyFive
The Second American Civil War Has Begun
