With the Iowa caucus less than five months away, former president Donald Trump remains strong among voters with a more than 20-point lead over his nearest rival.
The latest figures from a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll show Trump to be the first-choice candidate for more than two-fifths of Republican Iowans (42%). Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trails by 23 points on 19%, with Tim Scott (9%), Nikki Haley (6%), Mike Pence (6%), Chris Christie (5%), and Vivek Ramaswamy (4%) all registering single figures.
Trump remains popular among Republicans who plan to vote elsewhere, with 63% of all 406 surveyed saying they are at least considering supporting Trump. DeSantis continues to post similar figures, with 61% willing to support him.
Iowa is an important state in the electoral cycle as the first in which voters decide who they want to lead their party in the upcoming presidential election. Republicans – 52% of whom said they could still be persuaded to support a different candidate – will go to the polls on Monday, January 15. For them, 65% say its important to find a candidate whose views come closest to their own, while 29% believe the priority should be their ability to beat incumbent president Joe Biden.
Iowa And Donald Trump Indictments
The poll comes as a major blow to Republican hopefuls not called “Donald Trump.” His attendance at the politically important Iowa State Fair was minimal, and the poll was conducted during the announcement and aftermath of his latest indictment.
It’s no secret that Donald Trump has used the “politically motivated” criminal investigations against him to his advantage, seeking to capitalize on them to rally support. Interestingly, following Fani Willis’ Georgia indictment, Trump’s lead over DeSantis as first choice candidate rose from 38-20% up to 43-18%.
Moreover, the number of respondents who said they were at least actively considering Trump rose from 55% to 67%.
Nevertheless, DeSantis remains popular among Republicans, with just as many considering supporting him in a bid for the nomination. The Florida Gov. has pledged to visit all 99 counties in Iowa and has focused campaign spending on the state. After all, a strong start in the primaries could be a springboard in his efforts to catch and defeat frontrunner Donald Trump.
His tireless campaigning seems to be working. DeSantis is viewed favorably by 52% of independents; Trump, on the other hand, only holds 44%. That said, the latter’s favorability ratings have never been higher in the state.
Independent voters are key to any election in a two-party democracy, and Trump’s inability to win them over could cost the party the White House.
Poll respondent Rick Williams, a 72-year-old Holstein resident and self-identified Republican, said he supported Trump but intended to vote for another candidate in the primaries. “Trump supporters are going to support him no matter what if he’s the nominee,” Williams said. “But we need the independents. We can’t win with just us. We’ve got to get the independents, and I don’t know if he can swing them.”
The poll of 406 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Aug. 13-17 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Shay Bottomley is a British journalist based in Canada. He has written for the Western Standard, Maidenhead Advertiser, Slough Express, Windsor Express, Berkshire Live and Southend Echo, and has covered notable events including the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee.
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