Could Donald Trump have a surprise VP candidate?: If the former president is once again the Republican presidential nominee, we know his running mate won’t be Mike Pence. But who could it be?
Who Will Donald Trump Pick?
Former President Donald Trump, multiple criminal indictments notwithstanding, has a massive lead for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, so the question has naturally turned to who he might pick as his running mate.
It will not be, it’s fair to assume, former Vice President Mike Pence, with whom the former president has clearly broken; among other things, Pence may very well serve as a witness in at least one of Trump’s criminal cases.
Several potential running mates are those running against Trump for the presidency but have been less likely to criticize the ex-president or repudiate his actions or legacy. These include the likes of former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, Sen. Tim Scott, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy.
When one looks at the Oddschecker odds for who will be the Republican vice presidential nominee in 2024, all three of those are near the top of the list. But the person with the best odds is not a current candidate, but rather former Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, who has 4-to-1 odds to run with Trump.
Lake lost her race for governor last year, but like Trump has not accepted her defeat and pursued a series of doomed court challenges. Lake, media reports earlier this summer stated, has been angling for a spot on the ticket and “practically lives” at Mar-a-Lago.
A choice of Lake would likely do little to appeal to moderates or anyone else outside of the MAGA base and would represent a doubling-down on election denial and conspiracism by the Trump team. And it might not even deliver the swing state of Arizona, whose voters rejected Lake last year.
Another female candidate who lost a governor’s race in 2022, Michigan’s Tudor Dixon, is also on the list, with 20-to-1 odds.
Haley and Scott, both of whom are from South Carolina, are listed at having 5-to-1 odds to run with Trump; Haley, a veteran of the Trump Administration, also appears to be auditioning for the veep job, frequently attacking Vice President Kamala Harris. Ramaswamy, who has been polling well despite being a mostly an unknown prior to this race, is fourth with 6-to-1 odds.
Next is Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), a leader in the House Republican Caucus who also has dedicated herself to the Trumpist cause, most recently by sponsoring a resolution to expunge the former president’s second impeachment, and including various wild conspiracy theories in the text of that resolution. Stefanik has 10-to-1 odds.
Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Trump’s former White House press secretary, has 12-to-1 odds to be veep, as does South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, frequently floated as a possible last-minute entrant to the race, has 16-to-1 odds, tying him with Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA).
There are a couple of other surprise names on the Oddschecker list. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a frequent Trump enemy, has 25-to-1 odds, while deposed Fox News host Tucker Carlson is listed at 28-to-1. That ties him with former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii, who was in elected office as a Democrat but has since left the party, and frequently campaigned for Republican candidates.
Of course, the most surprising name on the list is… Donald Trump himself, at 33-to-1 odds. The question is who will be the vice presidential nominee, not who will run with Trump, so that would mark a scenario in which someone else gets the presidential nomination and chooses the ex-president as veep, which would appear very remote. But that’s still more likely than Mike Pence, who has 40-to-1 odds to return to the vice presidential spot.
The usual caveats apply that this is the opinion of one oddsmaker, nearly a year before a vice presidential pick is likely to be chosen, and oddsmakers and betting markets have a somewhat iffy history when it comes to predicting the outcomes of elections.
Author Expertise and Experience
Stephen Silver is a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive. He is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.
From 19FortyFive
