Donald Trump gained plenty of attention by vowing to continue his campaign for a second term as president–from prison if necessary–if he is convicted on any of the pending charges against him.
So how does he walk back from that vow?
The 45th president is the consummate fighter. He will never back down. He even says, “I am being indicted for you,” as if he’s protecting Americans. Of course, Trump says he will keep running for president and won’t negotiate a deal. That’s the best way to gain leverage for a deal.
Before Donald Trump was the fighter, he was the consummate negotiator and prided himself on being the master of the “Art of the Deal,” the title of one of his bestselling books that he’s called his second favorite all-time book right behind the Bible.
But what about the ambitious prosecutors? Special counsel Jack Smith, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, and Fulton County, Georgia top prosecutor Fani Willis all want to be historical figures that score convictions against Trump. Would they even entertain a deal?
Also, any deal would inevitably include Trump’s agreement to no longer hold public office. Could Trump agree to that? Could prosecutors draw up a deal that would only buttress Trump’s consistent claim that the witch hunt would all go away if he promised not to run for president?
Of course, Trump and prosecutors would agree to a deal. There are many reasons why.
Why Prosecutors Will Want a Deal with Donald Trump
We’ve almost gotten used to the thought that Trump is going to go to trial for one or more charges. Maybe it’s more likely than not. But an ex-president on trial is monumental.
It’s not unheard of for federal and state prosecutors to work in tandem when there is a single defendant that could produce a single agreement to allow Trump a deal to avoid the potential for jailtime and allow the prosecutors to crow in press releases.
The Democratic Party base would be infuriated by a deal that spares jailtime. The Trump base would be disappointed, depressed, and dejected. They can all just learn to deal with it.
Prosecutors will take something like a win if it’s in sight. Simply put, a conviction will be tougher than some people seem to realize.
Smith’s classified documents case against Trump is in Florida–a state where juries have a history of acquitting politicians.
Sure, Smith likely plans to bring charges over the Capitol riot to stand trial before a more anti-Trump District of Columbia jury pool. Bragg has charged Trump in the Stormy Daniels hush money case in leftwing Manhattan, where getting a fair trial will be tough.
But even in these far-left bastions, a guilty verdict requires unanimity. That’s never a guarantee. Prosecutors can try Trump again if there are hung juries in either case, but why put the country through additional trauma?
Then there is the Georgia case, where Trump is expected to be indicted in August. But Georgia! Enough said. Yes, Trump lost Georgia in 2020. Yes, a trial would be in the more liberal Atlanta. But it’s still Georgia, and far from a guaranteed guilty verdict.
Why Donald Trump Wants a Deal
As uncertain as a conviction is, it’s sure as heck plausible in D.C. and New York.
You better believe that Trump’s attorneys are saying, “You might be convicted and lose the election.” If that happens, where does that leave him? There’s no ability to pardon himself. He could appeal all the way to the Supreme Court? But he already thinks his Supreme Court appointees betrayed him.
Donald Trump loves the adoration of his fans and probably can’t bear the chance he’ll disappoint them. It’s one reason he never conceded the 2020 election. But he is also a master of spin.
He could bow out of the 2024 race, claiming it’s the only way to prevent the deep state from coming for his family. He can say he sincerely wanted to beat these “very sick, evil people.” But it’s clear, they will rig another election anyway and rig the jury so that they can put him away.
The only way to defend the people he has taken indictments for is to stay free and fight, he could say. He’d have plenty of TV commentators say that in this deal, Trump really outsmarted the Deep State. He can be more effective in fighting on the outside. For that matter, the deal was taking even more bullets for MAGA Americans that the Deep State was really coming after. Way over half of his supporters will buy into this.
What History Tells Us
There’s certainly precedent for this, though with different circumstances. Vice President Spiro Agnew faced potential charges for corruption and bribery as governor of Maryland. Not unlike how President Joe Biden’s potential corruption as vice president is catching up with him as president, in 1973, Agnew came under scrutiny for offenses he committed in Maryland politics.
Instead of major corruption charges that could have meant federal prison, Agnew got what could be easily called a sweetheart deal in agreeing to resign from office, and pay a $10,000 fine under an agreement with prosecutors.
There’s also the Bill Clinton 2001 agreement reached with Independent Counsel Robert Ray. To avoid facing an investigation for perjury and obstruction of justice in connection to the Monica Lewinsky affair, Clinton admitted to lying under oath, surrendered his license to practice law and paid a $25,000 fine.
Trump, applying Art-of-the-Deal principles might be able to reach a similarly and even more favorable face-saving deal.
Barbara Joanna Lucas is a writer and researcher in Northern Virginia. She has been a healthcare professional, political blogger, is a proud dog mom, and news junkie.
From 19FortyFive
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