How strong is the Georgia case against Donald Trump compared to the others?: The indictment against the former president and many others is the fourth of the year. It appears to be neither the strongest nor the weakest of the four cases, but it still poses a significant danger to Donald Trump.
Donald Trump: In Legal Jeopardy or Not?
The indictment in Georgia earlier this week against President Donald Trump differed from the previous three in a few key ways.
It’s the first to involve RICO (racketeering) charges and also the first involving a large group of codefendants. Trump was one of 19 people named in the indictment, which centered on attempts to overturn Trump’s defeat in Georgia in 2020.
Overall, across the four cases, Trump faces nearly 100 criminal counts. No other president or former president in the country has ever faced a single criminal charge.
How strong is the Georgia case, compared to the others against the former president?
Slate cited a recent survey by Bright Line Watch, which was taken before the Georgia indictment, in which political scientists were asked which of the first three indictments was the most serious, and the strongest.
“Political science experts were nearly unanimous in believing in the factual basis of the DOJ’s classified documents case—that Trump did bring classified documents to his Mar-a-Lago property, stored them in unsecured locations, showed them to people without security clearances, and attempted to obstruct the federal investigation into the matter. All in all, 94 percent of experts believed Trump had committed a crime here,” Slate said of the survey results. The survey found that the federal election interference prosecution was the second-strongest case, with the New York hush-money case ranked the weakest.
“The [classified] documents evidence is more cut-and-dry in terms of legal violation than even what’s been made public about Jan. 6,” Brendan Nyhan of Dartmouth College and co-director at Bright Line Watch, told Slate. “The indictments that are likely forthcoming are going to rely on secondhand accounts of complex events and may seem less compelling or straightforward.”
The Georgia case appears to not quite as strong as the documents one, but still relatively robust, and certainly stronger than the hush money case. And there are plenty of reasons for Trump to worry about it.
First of all, there are many, many counts. Secondly, unlike the previous indictment, some of the charges include mandatory minimum sentences. Thirdly, there are many other defendants, who could conceivably flip on Trump. And finally, they are state charges, which are not subject to the presidential pardon power, nor does the governor of Georgia have the power to directly issue pardons.
Should Trump, or another Republican, be elected president, they will be able to dismiss the federal charges or even issue pardons. But that will not be possible to do with the Georgia case.
John Acevedo, a law professor at Emory University, told Politico that District Attorney Fani Willis is likely hoping to get some of the codefendants to flip.
“I think it does reveal a bit of her strategy,” Acevedo told the outlet.
Politico looked Wednesday at the strength of the case, and the potential severity of the punishments.
“The prospect of mandatory prison time is a first among Trump’s criminal cases. In his other cases, some charges — like allegedly falsifying business records in his New York hush money case — are unlikely to result in any prison time for a first-time offender. Other, more serious charges — like Trump’s alleged violations of the Espionage Act and his alleged obstruction of justice in his federal case involving classified documents — typically result in significant prison sentences, but federal judges have discretion,” Politico said.
Dan McLaughlin, this week, wrote for the New York Post that the GOP should drop Trump, because “criminal defendants make terrible candidates.”
“Nominating Trump again would be a disaster for Republicans,” McLaughlin argues while stating that the documents case is the strongest against Trump. “The criminal charges are one of the biggest reasons why. Even if you think that’s unfair, it’s reality.”
Author Expertise and Experience
Stephen Silver is a Senior Editor for 19FortyFive. He is an award-winning journalist, essayist and film critic, who is also a contributor to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Jewish Telegraphic Agency, Broad Street Review and Splice Today. The co-founder of the Philadelphia Film Critics Circle, Stephen lives in suburban Philadelphia with his wife and two sons. Stephen has authored thousands of articles over the years that focus on politics, technology, and the economy for over a decade. Follow him on Twitter at @StephenSilver.
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