The rumor mill on the Right has been in full swing lately. One of the longest-running rumors has been that President Joe Biden, despite having already announced his reelection campaign in April, will ultimately decide against running at some point soon.
Either because of his advanced age and/or because of the ongoing legal woes his wayward son, Hunter, has been involved with, the reasoning goes, the forty-sixth president cannot possibly run again.
While this is certainly a possibility, Republican strategists and pundits (who are secretly concerned about the chances any GOP nominee will have in 2024, given how bad things are for the Republican Party) cannot pin their hopes on that possibility.
Joe Biden Won’t Give Up the Political Goat That Easily
Sadly, Joe Biden is likely indeed running for reelection.
If that’s the case, he will easily retain the Democratic Party’s nomination.
Specifically, though, Joe Biden has already shown that, whether by hook or by crook, he has already demonstrated his ability to defeat former President Donald J. Trump, the man who will likely become the GOP nominee in 2024, if the polling data is accurate.
People like former Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) have explained that Biden’s lack of campaign staff is one of five indicators showing that the president is unserious about running for reelection.
The fact of the matter is that the forty-sixth president doesn’t need to surge resources into a massive campaign staff. Nor does the president need to spend his time campaigning too seriously.
At least he does not have to dedicate those resources to such a herculean cause at this moment.
Not only is it early in the Democratic Party’s presidential primary, but there is absolutely no chance that Biden’s two primary rivals, the would-be crystal healer and self-help guru, Marianne Williamson, or Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., pose a serious threat to Biden at all.
Why would the forty-sixth president waste his time or resources on fighting them—especially with the obviously corrupt way that Democrats pick their nominee?
Remember, the Democrats have chosen their nominees since 1988 by relying on “Superdelegates,” powerful individuals who lead the Democratic Party whose votes count higher in the primary than do ordinary Democratic Party voters. The moneyed interests and party powerbrokers on the Left are solidly behind Joe Biden’s reelection bid.
Plus, the General Election is a long time from now.
Biden has plenty of time to sit on the beach, avoid making self-destructive gaffes in public, and let the campaign donations pile up in his bank account. Biden’s reelection campaign already outfunded his possible GOP rivals’ campaign funding this year. Biden’s campaign earned even more donations than Donald Trump’s campaign.
Unlike Trump, Joe Biden doesn’t really have to deploy campaign assets to fight a multisided, vicious primary. Biden also doesn’t have to spend vast sums of his campaign dollars on absurd legal fees the way that Donald Trump is being made to, due to the four indictments that he’s undergoing.
It’s true that Joe Biden is an unpopular president.
But compared to other possible Democratic Party candidates, with the exception of RFK, Jr. (who will never be the nominee because he threatens the moneyed interests that control the modern Democratic Party), there is no truly popular replacement from the Left for Joe Biden.
Newsom Probably Won’t Run in ‘24
Even California’s Governor Gavin Newsom, who would be an infinitely better candidate, will not be able to replace Joe Biden as the Democratic Party’s nominee, if only because it is obvious that Joe Biden is not his own man.
Powerful interests, especially those in former President Barack Obama’s orbit, are pulling Biden’s political and financial strings.
Newsom, of course, has elite backing like Biden. But Newsom is not one of Barack Obama’s people. Ultimately, Biden’s support derives from the fact that he is Obama’s sock puppet in the Oval Office. Newsom would never allow himself to be that if he became the next president.
Governor Newsom will likely sit the 2024 election out and let the pieces fall as they may, waiting for his next moment four years from now when the decks in the Democratic Party are cleared.
Trump is the Rival Biden Needs
Then there’s the issue of facing off against Donald Trump in 2024.
As noted previously, whether fairly or not (depending on who you ask), Biden already defeated Trump in 2020. Joe Biden doesn’t have to beat Trump in a landslide victory. All he needs to do is simply defeat him. Sure, Biden is unpopular. But Trump is as unpopular—if not more than Biden—among many voters.
Meanwhile, with independent voters, Trump is wildly more unpopular than Biden.
So, if 2024 sees Joe Biden squaring off with Trump, it won’t be a clear choice between the better candidate. It’ll simply be a race to the bottom in terms of popularity.
Based on the 2020 experience, Biden and his team believe they can win that race to the bottom with Trump. Now, if another Republican, such as Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, manages to surprise everyone and get the GOP nomination rather than Trump, Biden’s calculations become different.
In a Biden-DeSantis matchup, the Florida governor likely wins. But if it’s Trump as the GOP nominee, the race will be painfully tight.
Biden thinks he can win such a race—which is why he isn’t campaigning too hard right now. It’s also why people on the Right shouldn’t just assume that the octogenarian will give up and let someone else run.
A 19FortyFive Senior Editor, Brandon J. Weichert is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times and American Greatness and the Asia Times. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower (Republic Book Publishers), Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life (Encounter Books), and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy (July 23). Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.