Last summer saw record-high inflation, and there was speculation it could result in a “red wave” in the 2022 midterms. However, a number of other factors – notably the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade – spoiled the Republican Party’s hopes. The Democrats kept control of the United States Senate, while the GOP made far more modest gains in the House of Representatives.
The replay of 2010 when Obama was humbled by the election “shellacking” didn’t happen, but inflation remained a major political issue – one that seemed to spell doom for President Joe Biden.
Inflation is Down, Are the GOP’s Chances Too?
Over the past year, inflation is just a third of what it was in June 2022 as it has tumbled from 9% to just 3%. It was the 12th straight month that saw inflation decline. That is very good news for consumers, yet, as inflation is down, are the GOP’s chances of defeating President Biden next year?
It may be too early to tell.
The Federal Reserve is still trying to bring inflation back down to the 2 percent target rate, and that is expected to be much more challenging and could take longer.
“We see some challenges in getting that all the way back to 2% quickly,” Michael Hanson, senior global economist at J.P. Morgan to PBS NewsHour.
Moreover, the “stickiness” of inflation could still endanger the possibility that the Fed could achieve the desired – and rare – “soft landing,” where the target rate is reached through higher interest rates without derailing the economy. Most economists believe that the central bank won’t hike any interest rates any higher, but only if inflation continues to cool.
Currently, the key rate stands at 5.4%, a 22-year high, after a quarter-percentage-point hike last month.
GOP and Inflation
With inflation slowing, the GOP may have to change up its tactics.
“I think it will diminish as an issue over the course of the year if inflation continues to stay down and continues to go down,” Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) told TheHill.com last month.
In other words, James Carville’s 1992 phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid” – which became a de facto slogan for Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign – may not play so well in 2024.
Republicans hit the Democrats over inflation last year in the run-up to the midterms, and it didn’t prove especially effective. Democrats responded by hitting back over abortion rights, and in the process expanded their Senate majority to 51 seats. As noted, the GOP also picked up fewer House seats than expected.
Romney further acknowledged that wage growth outpaced inflation by 1.2% in June. That marked the first time since March 2021 that wages grew faster than prices.
“Having wage growth exceed inflation is a good thing,” Romney added. “There’s going to be good news and bad news. Not everything the president does is good, not everything is bad. And of course, the president has some responsibility for the economy.”
If inflation continues to decline – or perhaps even stays at current levels – and the country can avoid a recession, Biden will be able to take credit, even as inflation did spike during his administration. That’s because voters often only care about the situation on Election Day, even if they’re quicker to cast blame.
As a result, the Republicans may need to change up their attacks on Biden, but it is clear that voters care about more than just the economy. And it’s not stupid to say so.
Author Experience and Expertise
A Senior Editor for 19FortyFive, Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu.
From 19FortyFive
