It’s no secret that Donald Trump has used the criminal charges against him as an effective campaign tactic.
His cries of a “witch hunt” – uttered in rallies, interviews, and in all capital letters on his social media site – have resonated with more than half the Republican Party, according to the polls.
The three previous indictments caused no damage to his popularity, a trend that is unlikely to change.
The former president now commands a lead of nearly 40 percentage points over his nearest rival, Gov. Ron DeSantis. So huge is his lead that unity among his opponents behind a single candidate would still see him land the Republican nomination in 2024.
However, his record-breaking primary polling does not tell the full picture.
While he is the first choice for many Republicans, he remains out of favor with others.
His favorability is falling, too, and that could be bad news for the Trump campaign.
Donald Truimp: Falling Out Of Favor
In any democracy, voters will not always have a favorable opinion of their preferred candidate. Some voters cast their ballot for the candidate they find the “least bad,” rather than the best. For Republicans, they may see Trump as their best chance of beating President Biden, even if they feel a competitor better aligns with their own values.
Donald Trump’s favorability ratings have generally remained stable, steadily climbing in the aftermath of the Stormy Daniels indictment. Prior to the classified documents case, Trump’s favorability was at +57.1% among Republicans. However, this has since dropped dramatically.
In the two weeks after the June indictment, Trump lost 1.8 percentage points in the favorability ratings down to +55.3%. Come August 15 and two more indictments, Trump’s favorability now stands at +49.1%.
His net favorability among all adults – a figure which has never been remarkable for Trump – has also fallen. From -11.9 on March 30 to -16.2% on August 1, Trump has fallen out of favor among voters whose support he will need if he is to become president.
Classified Documents Could Be Key
Of the four indictments so far, the classified documents case could be pivotal in deciding Trump’s fate. His attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election were seen by much of the American public, and the Stormy Daniels case has been public knowledge since 2018.
Trump’s storage of classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago home was not common knowledge before this year. For sure, while there was comprehensive coverage of the 2022 raid at the time, the bulk of the prosecution’s arguments only became clear when the indictment was unsealed in June.
This particular case also involves national security. For approximately 10% of Americans, national security is their top priority behind the economy (26%) and healthcare (12%). A recent YouGov/The Economist survey found Republicans were twice as likely to priories security than Democrats, hence why Trump’s favorability may have taken a harder hit on this indictment compared to the others.
Nevertheless, further evidence will be made public when the trials begin next year. Trump will be required in court for each trial, which will undoubtedly hamper his campaigning efforts. Each time he steps out of the courtroom, he may find his favorability has dropped, rather than improved.
Shay Bottomley is a British journalist based in Canada. He has written for the Western Standard, Maidenhead Advertiser, Slough Express, Windsor Express, Berkshire Live and Southend Echo, and has covered notable events including the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee.
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