War in Ukraine Update: The Ukrainian military is making progress in its counteroffensive but still lacks the decisive breach that would precipitate an operational breakthrough.
The most serious fighting is taking place in the Donbas and in Southern Ukraine. In the latter section of the battlefield, Ukrainian forces have achieved the greatest gains, They are now pouring forces into the sector.
Ukraine War: Fighting in the South
Ukrainian forces continue to make steady gains in Southern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
“Ukrainian forces advanced closer to the Russian second line of defense in the Robotyne area in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 24, further widening their breach of Russian defensive lines in the area,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational estimate of the war.
If Ukrainian forces manage to pass through Robotyne in force, they will still have to break through some layers of Russian defenses. Nevertheless, the area presents the most promise for the Ukrainian military, and Kyiv is likely to reinforce units there.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is assessing that the Russian military continues to redeploy forces from the Kherson Oblast to neighboring Zaporizhzhia to plug holes in the defensive lines created by the fighting. As we have previously analyzed, that creates the conditions for an attack in Kherson. The Ukrainian military has already been raiding the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in an attempt to tie down significant Russian forces.
Russian Casualties in Ukraine
Thursday, Russian forces suffered less than 350 killed, wounded, or captured troops. This is the lowest daily tally since early June, and it proved to be a one-off occurrence. On Friday, day 458 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Russian casualty rate returned to its average of between 400 and 500 daily losses. Compared to other periods of the war, when Moscow would lose between 800 and 1,100 men a day, the Russian forces are suffering low casualties.
Overall, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed that as of Friday, Ukrainian forces have killed and wounded approximately 259,630 Russian troops. They also claim they have destroyed 322 fighter, attack, bomber, and transport jets; 316 attack and transport helicopters; 4,378 tanks; 5,361 artillery pieces; 8,521 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles; 724 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), 18 boats and cutters, 7,790 vehicles, and fuel tanks, 495 anti-aircraft batteries; 4,356 tactical unmanned aerial systems; 802 special equipment platforms, such as bridging vehicles, and four mobile Iskander ballistic missile systems; and 1,409 cruise missiles shot down by the Ukrainian air defenses.
The Ukrainian military has also taken significant casualties in its large-scale counteroffensive. Kyiv has been very careful about publicizing the numbers of its losses. According to Western intelligence assessments, the Ukrainian military has lost about 70,000 men killed and 100,000 to 120,000 wounded. Although a high number of losses, it is still less than the total Russian casualties, which range between 260,000 and 300,000.
A 19FortyFive Defense and National Security Columnist, Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University, an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), and is pursuing a J.D. at Boston College Law School. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
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