Trump thinks he has the primary in the bag. But does he?
Former president Donald Trump continues to enjoy a commanding lead in the polls when it comes to the Republican primary.
FiveThirtyEight, which collects data from multiple polls and provides an average that reflects most of the major counts, currently has the former commander-in-chief at 55.1%. well ahead of Ron DeSantis, who is still in second place with 14.2%.
The lead in the polls isn’t lost on Trump – his lead various polls is a frequent subject of his posts on Truth Social, where he has been extremely active, especially in the last few months. “Best Polls Ever, but rarely shown on television. Leading by 50 and 60 points. Just like they don’t like showing our big Rally CROWDS, they don’t like showing our GREAT POLL NUMBERS. WE HAVE RIGGED ELECTIONS, AND RIGGED TELEVISION!”, reads a recent post.
Many of his more prominent supporters also agree that the result of the Republican primary next year is a foregone conclusion – Marjorie Taylor Greene, a long-time staunch Trump supporter, who currently holds one of the seats in Congress for the state of Georgia (and is rumored to be a candidate for Trump’s running mate), says flatly that his rivals have no chance. “They’re not going to win,” she says flat out, and believes that Trump doesn’t even have to attend any debates.
It isn’t as simple as it looks
Trump’s lead in the polls may sound like he’s won the Republican presidential nominee race in all but name, but it isn’t as simple as things look.
For one, there are several more months to go before the Republican primary is held, and many things can happen in between.
Second, polls collect other data, which indicates that Trump’s hold on voters isn’t as strong as it looks. More than half of voters in general view him unfavorably – 55.1% – according to data from FiveThirtyEight. F
iveThirtyEight acknowledges that the former chief executive is a heavy favorite to win the primary and his rivals have a steep uphill climb ahead of them.
Still, Trump’s chances of victory are more in the realm of “likely” or “probable”, rather than “certain” or “highly likely.”
Data gathered by Politico indicates that even the view of Trump among Republicans isn’t as solid as he or his supporters make it out to be.
The news outlet reports that at the moment, almost half of the heads of local chapters of the GOP – 47% – remain uncommitted to a single candidate, Trump included.
What’s more, when asked who they were considering, local GOP leaders’ responses put DeSantis in first place with 57% and Trump in second place with 52%.
South Carolina Senator Tim Scott is in third place with 45%, and 35% of local Republican chairs say they were considering Nikki Haley.
When asked who they were ruling out, the chairs put former New Jersey governor Chris Christie and Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson as the top two most unpopular candidates, with Trump following in third place and former vice president Mike Pence in fourth.
The Politico article points out that Trump is usually viewed in either extreme, which makes him unpredictable – he does have a strong support base among Republican voters, many of whom continue to see him as the blameless savior America needs, but he has more than his fair share of detractors as well.
However, candidates like DeSantis, Scott, and Haley, whom many undecided local GOP leaders are considering, don’t have a lot of detractors, something that could play out to their advantage.
Tim Ramos has written for various publications, corporations, and organizations – covering everything from finance, politics, travel, entertainment, and sports – in Asia and the U.S. for more than 10 years.
