The GOP held its second presidential primary debate last week, without frontrunner Donald Trump in attendance. This week, polls suggest the debate’s effect on the public’s opinion is cropping up. One such poll found that Trump indeed benefitted from skipping the debate. In a Morning Consult poll conducted on Sept. 28, 63 percent of potential Republican primary voters supported Trump, an increase of five percent over a Morning Consult poll released a few days before the debate.
The Numbers for Donald Trump
Here are the numbers from the Morning Consult poll.
Trump finished with the highest support, and his five-point was the largest change from the pre-debate poll.
Next came Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who was able to retain the second slot despite suffering the largest reduction in polling numbers, three points, from 15 percent to 12 percent. DeSantis had been jostling back and forth with tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy for second place. DeSantis’ team will be relieved to find that he has moved comfortably ahead of Ramaswamy, whose support dipped from nine percent to seven percent, leaving DeSantis comfortably in second place.
But a whopping 51 points behind Trump is not what DeSantis had in mind when he entered the race. DeSantis was supposed to contend for the nomination. Indeed, he was the favorite for a moment, edging out Trump in the polls and in fundraising, although that seems like a long time ago.
No one seems to have a prayer of catching Trump. DeSantis and Ramaswamy, who round out the top three, aren’t within fifty points of the leader. The rest of the field doesn’t seem capable of breaking out of single digits.
Former Vice President Mike Pence trended downward, from six points to five points. Similarly, former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley dropped from seven points to five points. Beyond Haley, the field seems especially helpless. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie saw a fifty percent increase in support – from two percent to three percent. Senator Tim Scott held steady at two percent. Former Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson held steady at one percent. Former Representative Will Hurd is stuck at zero percent, below “someone else,” which received one percent of the vote.
According to Morning Consult, the poll “reinforces our view that Trump is in the driver’s seat of the Republican primary, and that Trump-less debates aren’t having much of an impact on the other candidates’ national support, and may in fact be helping the former president. It also suggests that the fragmentation of the field continues to harm efforts to stop Trump’s march to the 2024 nomination in Milwaukee next year.”
Trump Will Likely Win the Nomination
Safe money is on Trump securing his third consecutive nomination — meaning he’ll face the Democratic nominee in the general election. At present, the Democratic nominee seems likely to be President Joe Biden, which would set up a rematch of 2020. However, questions of uncertainty surround Biden’s candidacy. Biden is deeply unpopular, and many Americans feel that Biden is too old to run for president again, making for an unenthusiastic voting bloc. If Biden is rolled out to face Trump, can Biden win? Increasingly, Biden is beginning to look like a liability in the general election.
Harrison Kass is the Senior Editor and opinion writer at 19FortyFive. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.
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